Area Forecast Discussion

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Updated discussion and aviation sections.

Have increased storm chances for Sunday slightly.

KEY MESSAGES

1) There is an Increased Fire Danger Statement for portions of NE NC from 10 AM to 8 PM today.

2) A cold front moves into the area Sunday bringing a chance for afternoon and early evening showers and thunderstorms.

3) Warm, but seasonable, Monday and Tuesday. Temps warm into the mid to upper 90s by late week.

DISCUSSION

As of 140 AM EDT Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...There is an Increased Fire Danger Statement for portions of NE NC from 10 AM to 8 PM today.

Ongoing drought conditions, lack of widespread wetting rain leading to low soil moisture, and abnormally dry dead fuels have led to high levels of fire danger in Northeast North Carolina. Additionally, there is lower moisture content in live coastal fuels. These factors are combined with hot temperatures today and Sunday and abnormally low RH values (25-30% today and 25-35% Sunday). NC Forest Service has requested an Increased Fire Danger Statement (IFD) for today and Sunday, which was already issued with the overnight package. The IFD will be handles on a day-by-day basis, so Sunday's will not be issued until after today's expires this evening.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Hot temperatures continue through Sunday with highs in the lower to mid 90s.

Another warm day forecast for tomorrow with highs climbing into the mid 90s south of I-64 and the low 90s north. A backdoor cold front approaches the northern border tomorrow afternoon as a shortwave trough pivots out to sea over New England. Ahead of the front, isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to form during the afternoon and evening hours. CAMs are in pretty good agreement on coverage and location of said storms. Starting out with a few storms between Palmyra and Farmville, then spreading south and east roughly along the US-460 corridor. A few isolated showers could linger across far southern portions of area as late as midnight-2am. There is a low-end potential for isolated strong to severe storms. Surface heating will provide steep low level lapse rates and there's just enough moisture for modest instability. Main threat would be damaging wind gusts should stronger storms form. The SPC has placed most of the area in a Marginal Risk with the exception of the Eastern Shore. The backdoor cold front will then progress through the area Sunday night.

KEY MESSAGE 3...A cold front moves into the area Sunday bringing a chance for afternoon and early evening storms, followed by briefly cooler temperatures early next week.

The local FA likely ends up north of the backdoor front on Monday, resulting in onshore flow and slightly cooler temperatures. The Eastern Shore, peninsulas, and southside Hampton Roads will have cooler highs in the 70s while inland locations warm well into the 80s. Onshore flow continues into Tuesday, but taking on a southerly component as the sfc high slides SE. Similar temps expected Tuesday, though a bit warmer at the coast (around 80F). Temps in the 90s return mid to late week as an UL ridge builds overhead and sfc flow returns to the SW. There is a non-zero chance of seeing high near 100F toward the end of the week. However, current ensemble guidance has probs less than 30% for temps greater than or equal to 100F. This late week period into the weekend could be a little unsettled as well with daily chance of showers/thunderstorms. Does not appear to be widespread measurable rain at this time, though.

AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

As of 140 PM EDT Saturday...

High pressure is slowly being suppressed to the SE as a front gradually moving towards the Mid-Atlantic region. VFR conditions prevail at the terminals for the 18z/06 TAF period. High level BKN cloud cover breaks up later this evening, then largely SCT high level clouds persist through the rest of the period. There is a very low chance of a shower at SBY late tonight, but precip likely stays north of the terminal. SW winds become westerly late in the period.

Outlook... The next chance of showers/storms (20-40% chance) arrives ahead of a cold front Sunday afternoon/evening. High pressure builds across New England in the wake of the cold front Monday/Tuesday with VFR conditions expected. High pressure shifts offshore Wednesday with a chance (30-40%) of diurnal showers/storms.

MARINE

As of 300 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- SW flow is expected to increase tonight ahead of an approaching cold front, but conditions should remain below SCA levels

- The cold front drop southward through the area waters on Sunday evening and exit the region by Monday morning. Expect a return to NE flow behind the front with small craft conditions possible.

A strong area of high pressure continues to remain anchored in the western Atlantic off the SE US coast this afternoon. Meanwhile a cold front slowly approaches from the Great Lakes and Northern portions of the Ohio Valley. Currently, winds remain light in the 10 - 15 kt range. As the cold front begins to approach the area later this evening, expect to see the SW flow increase into the 15 - 20 kt range for the Bay and near coastal areas and closer to 25 kt over the open ocean. Guidance suggest wind just in the near shore coastal waters could briefly gust to 25 kt, but the time frame looks very short, just a few hours, and the probabilities of reaching 25kt are less than 25%. So have not raised the SCA flag at this time.

The winds will relax a bit on Sunday as the gradient between the front and the area of high pressure slides southward. But once the front crosses the area late on Sunday off the MD coast and through the night along the VA and NC coast, the flow will turn north to northeast as a strong area of high pressure builds down the coast. Expect winds to be SCA levels initially behind the front, but then the persistent NE flow on Monday into Monday night will allow seas to build to 4 - 6 FT in the ocean waters. SCA flags will likely be needed in the coastal waters and portions of the Chesapeake Bay.

By Tuesday, the area of high pressure will slide off the coast and turn the winds more SE. For Wednesday to Friday, the area of high pressure moves SE and anchors near where the current area of high pressure is in the Western Atlantic. This will allow for a return to lighter SW flow across area waters to end the week.

CLIMATE

Record High Temperatures:

6/6 6/7 RIC 96/1952 100/2008 ORF 97/2002 101/2008 SBY 102/1925 97/2008 ECG 96/1939 99/2008

AKQ WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...INCREASED FIRE DANGER until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ013>017-030>032-102. VA...None. MARINE...None.