Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1208 AM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

- Critical fire weather conditions are expected across the western Panhandles on Wednesday, returning for the entire Panhandles on Thursday.

- Very low chances exist for a storm or two in the eastern Panhandles Wednesday afternoon. If storms can develop, they could be severe.

- Weak cold fronts may provide low rain chances to the northern Panhandles this weekend.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Wednesday night) Issued at 1208 AM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

Today looks to be one of the relatively better weather days of the week across the Panhandles, especially once morning clouds clear out. A ridge of high pressure will keep temperatures slightly on the warm side in the upper 70s to mid 80s, and will also keep winds at bay, peaking at a typical Panhandle breeze of 10-20 mph. Drier conditions in our western counties may support elevated fire weather, but thankfully conditions will only be marginally favorable for fire starts/spread.

In true Panhandle spring fashion, Wednesday's weather poses a two faceted forecast: fire weather in the west, and conditional severe storm potential in the east. Fire weather potential will be discussed more in the Fire Weather section. A 500mb trough/low will progress across the Northern Plains through the day Wednesday, drawing an influx of mid-level theta-e and gulf moisture to eastern portions of our forecast area. This moisture will be characterized by 50s dew points and 0.5-1.0" PWATs, situated to the east of a surface dry line. This moisture will cause low cloud decks and even some patchy fog through the morning hours, gradually burning off by the afternoon. As temperatures climb well into the 80s and low 90s, moisture across the east will be utilized towards building an unstable and modestly sheared environment. CAPE values in the 500- 1500 J/kg range are favored by most models, along with 30-50 kt bulk shear values. Given this parameter space, any storm that may develop could easily become severe with damaging wind and large hail. Questions on the quality of low-level moisture and wind shear place doubt on any tornado threat for now.

To elaborate more on the conditional nature of this storm threat, we'll start by mentioning that there's only about a 15% chance for one or two isolated thunderstorms to even develop across the eastern Panhandles. This is due in large part to the stout capping inversion (warm layer above the surface) being depicted by the vast majority of model forecast soundings. This cap may not be exceptionally warm, but is set to be quite deep, possibly spanning the entirety of the 850-700mb layer. CAM projections suggest this cap may erode explicitly along the dry line where better moisture will be forced upward, which could be enough to get a few attempts at convective initiation in the afternoon hours. Even if storms try to get going, they should struggle mightily to survive as they quickly move eastward into an environment indicative of dry air entrainment and "orphan anvils". On top of these already menacing obstacles, upper level support from the parent storm system appears to arrive too late in the evening, and is displaced slightly too far north of the Panhandles to better invigorate the atmosphere. Despite this plethora of negatives, a few hi-res CAMs insist a supercell or two could defy the odds and last for an hour or two before dying off closer to western Oklahoma Wednesday afternoon-evening. The bottom line is that storm development is unlikely, but if one does form, it could be impactful.

Harrel

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Monday) Issued at 1208 AM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

Thursday's forecast is unfortunately far simpler than its predecessor: critical fire weather conditions across the Panhandles. The synoptic pattern will be characterized by stronger flow aloft, as a 250mb jet sags southward from the Northern Plains storm system. This favors renewed lee cyclogenesis closer to the Panhandles, placing an even tighter pressure gradient over the region. This in tandem with better jet dynamics and a weak Pacific front favors sustained west-southwest winds of 15-25 mph with gusts up to 35-45 mph. Another warm and dry April afternoon is anticipated, featuring max temps in the 80s to low 90s once again, and minimum relative humidities in the single digits. Fire weather products will likely be needed for this day as we get closer.

According to global model guidance, flow aloft becomes more zonal Fri-Sat, allowing weak cold fronts to reach the region. These "cool downs" are minimal though, only dropping temperatures slightly closer to seasonal averages. Ensemble data still hints that some low precipitation chances could exist this weekend with any moisture pooled behind the front (20-30% POPs), primarily across the northern Panhandles Sunday-Sunday evening when a better disturbance may arrive. However, ensemble analysis still provides strong signals towards any approaching weather systems bringing more "dry slots" than moisture to the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles as we head into next week.

Harrel

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1208 AM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

Winds stay around 10-20 kts out of the south overnight into Tuesday, becoming southeasterly towards the end of the period. A low cloud deck is pushing in from the south tonight bringing MVFR ceilings to KAMA. There is a low chance for patchy fog to develop, but low ceilings are far more likely, and should lift/clear out by the afternoon hours. VFR ceilings are anticipated at KGUY and KDHT.

Harrel

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1208 AM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

Critical fire weather conditions are forecast across the western combined Panhandles Wednesday afternoon. Very dry and breezy conditions are forecast west of a dry line, where fuels remain ready to burn. Southwest winds will be sustained at 15-25 mph with potential for gusts of 30-40 mph (10% chance for a rogue gust over 40 mph). As temperatures warm, relative humidity values will bottom out around 10%, with a few locations seeing closer to 5%. This will create RFTI values of 4-6, especially across the northwest combined Panhandles. The Fire Weather Watch and subsequent Red Flag Warning may need some expansion depending on where the dry line sets up.

AMA WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

TX...Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday evening for TXZ001-002-006-007-011-016.

OK...Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday evening for OKZ001-002.