Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

- Shower chances linger through this morning, as well as areas of fog near Lake Michigan

- A break in rain chances Sunday and Monday

- Rain and storm chances return Tuesday with hot temperatures and humid conditions through the end of the work week

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1239 AM EDT Sat Jun 6 2026

Currently, deep moisture is moving over northern MI as the upper ridge has reached south of the area. The 00z KAPX RAOB depicted 1.19" PWATs, with current surface observations showing low to mid 60s Tds around northern MI. A weak boundary & upper short wave is moving over the state this morning, leading to a line of showers with embedded convection. Although deep moisture is present, instability lessens the more one moves north and east due to the orientation of the upper wave (slightly warmer air aloft lingering over NE lower) and how the convection is deepening that wave as it moves across the state.

As the weak wave slowly exits this morning, the cooler and saturated airmass near the surface will move in behind it. Patchy fog will be seen over most of the higher hills and coastal areas of Lk MI. Marine fog is current (and will continue to be) trapped in the MBL through mid morning. Light northwest winds could allow the fog near the Lake MI coast to continue into mid/late morning. Visibilities could be as low as 1SM or less.

Drier air moves in around midday, allowing for skies to clear up during the afternoon hours (afternoon CU could result in partly cloudy). Breezy northwest winds will be seen during the afternoon hours, and could keep temperatures cooler over coastal areas of NW lower. Temperatures in the 80s for spots of NE lower.

Surface high pressure slides east over Ontario CAN while amplified upper ridging builds in Sunday. Drier air and continue warm to hot temperatures will be seen Sunday and Monday under these influences. East winds will become breezy Sunday afternoon, and winds turn southeast/south Monday.

Monday into tuesday, a closed low over the SW US will open up and advect straight north on the windward side of the upper ride. Strong southerlies over the central plains will advect deep gulf moisture up into southern CAN (PWATs 1.5" to approaching 2" over parts of the central plains). Decent confidence is seen in global ensembles for moving this deep moisture over northern MI, with 75% of LREF members showing at least 1.6" PWATs over Gaylord MI by noon Tuesday. The wave will move over the state, returning shower and storm chances Tuesday/Wednesday. This will also move a warm and wet airmass over northern MI. Apparent temperatures could easily climb into the 90s Wednesday through the end of the work week, with a 5 to 10% chance for apparent temperatures in the 100s for Thursday (higher chances south of M-72 and over the interior). Shower/storm chances will make this a difficult and messy temperature forecast though, with cloud cover potentially relieving those 100+ heat index afternoons. Near the end of the work week, a larger upper trough swings through to move that airmass away from the state and cooling things back to normal for the weekend.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 108 PM EDT Sat Jun 6 2026

Skies will continue to clear out through the rest of the afternoon with VFR conditions expected. Winds will continue to be from the northwest, breezes up to 20 KTs most locations, then decreasing into the overnight. Another round of BR/FG is possible, especially for the coastal terminals from KCIU down to KMBL. Definitely a little uncertain, but with high pressure location to the north, the potential is there for low CIGs and VSBYs. Any FG/low cloud will clear out quickly Sunday morning with dry conditions persisting. East to northeast winds expected for most on Sunday.

APX WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...None.