Area Forecast Discussion

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Letterhead and timestamp

000 FXUS64 KBMX 191737 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 1237 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026...New AVIATION...

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1228 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2026

- Critically dry fuels, strong winds, and low minimum relative humidity behind the front will keep fire weather conditions elevated through much of the upcoming week.

- Next rain chances will be late Friday into Saturday.

DISCUSSION

(Sunday through next Saturday) Issued at 1142 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2026

A strong cold has moved through the northwest with an outflow boundary now near the I-85 corridor. This will continue to slide south and east through the overnight. Post-frontal rain will continue to slide into the state, before decreasing in coverage by 3 to 4 am. Best chances after sunrise will be in the southeast through around 9 am. Highs will be in the upper 60s to low 70s during the afternoon, with winds around 15 mph to gusts near 25 mph at time through the day.

Dry weather will move into the area and will remain there through the end of the work week as high pressure once again sets up shop over the drought stricken Southeast. Highs will warm back into the upper 70s to low 80s on Monday, with the return to mid 80s by Tuesday through Friday.

The next system will move into the area Friday night or into Saturday, so lots of time to discuss it and fine tune the impacts to the area as we go through the week.

16

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1228 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2026

Deck of mid level (around FL150) clouds should move out of central Alabama between 1800 and 2100 UTC. That will leave clear skies and essentially a wind forecast for the remainder of this TAF forecast cycle. Winds should become less gusty late this afternoon, and then transition to calm/light after 0100 UTC.

NOTE: Spring seasonal KASN TAF is now being issued and will run through 04/29 18z.

/61/

FIRE WEATHER

Afternoon humidity levels will be close to critical values over the next several days, as temperatures moderate and dewpoints remain in the 30s and 30s. Fortunately, after this afternoon winds are expected to become and then remain less gusty through the rest of the week. Next chance for rain will not come until Friday at the soonest.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Temperatures Chance of precipitation
Location Tonight Tomorrow Tomorrow night Next day Tonight Tomorrow Tomorrow night Next day
Gadsden 39 ℉ 76 ℉ 45 ℉ 80 ℉ 0% 0% 0% 0%
Anniston 42 ℉ 76 ℉ 47 ℉ 80 ℉ 0% 0% 0% 0%
Birmingham 46 ℉ 77 ℉ 51 ℉ 82 ℉ 0% 0% 0% 0%
Tuscaloosa 44 ℉ 78 ℉ 49 ℉ 82 ℉ 0% 0% 0% 0%
Calera 44 ℉ 78 ℉ 49 ℉ 82 ℉ 0% 0% 0% 0%
Auburn 47 ℉ 77 ℉ 52 ℉ 80 ℉ 0% 0% 0% 0%
Montgomery 44 ℉ 79 ℉ 49 ℉ 82 ℉ 0% 0% 0% 0%
Troy 45 ℉ 78 ℉ 49 ℉ 82 ℉ 0% 0% 0% 0%

BMX WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

None.

DISCUSSION...16 AVIATION.../61/