Letterhead and timestamp
000 FXUS64 KBMX 061831 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 131 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026...New AVIATION...KEY MESSAGES
Issued at 130 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2026
- Showers and thunderstorms return to the forecast starting this Saturday afternoon, persisting through next week.
- High temperatures will climb back up this week with readings from the middle 80s to the lower 90s.
DISCUSSION
(Saturday through next Friday) Issued at 1126 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2026
Upper-level ridging will continue to break down overnight, allowing for the region to come under the influence of a closed low slowly working into the central Plains. Rain chances will begin to increase in our far SW zones on Saturday, before expanding in coverage on Sunday as a shortwave works through the region. This closed low will allow for a series of shortwaves to work through the region through Monday, before a somewhat deeper trough overtakes the region on Tuesday.
The forecast starts to become a bit more uncertain here, as guidance paints roughly two scenarios. The first is the trough taking an odd elongated shape, allowing for a bit more rainfall coverage from Wednesday onward. The other scenario is this trough gets shifted farther east, with a ridge starting to build in to our west. While showers and thunderstorms would stay in the forecast with this scenario, they would likely be limited to scattered, diurnally driven activity in the afternoon. Regardless, rain looks to stay in the forecast in some capacity, with afternoon highs climbing to above 90 degrees during the middle of next week as well.
/44/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS) Issued at 130 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2026
VFR conditions are present to start the forecast for this afternoon. Convection should stay generally across the southwest part of the state this afternoon. MVFR cigs will spread from west to east across Central Alabama tonight from ~7-13z along and ahead of showers, with IFR cigs a couple of hours behind. Thunder probabilities will not be zero tonight but are too low to mention for late night/early morning. Better chances should hold off until Sunday afternoon.
08
FIRE WEATHER
High pressure will begin to break down allowing for showers and thunderstorms to return to the forecast. Because of that, MinRH values will climb to above 50% by Sunday, and linger here or higher for most of the upcoming week. Given daily rain chances and high MinRH values, fire weather concerns remain little to none at this time.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
| Temperatures | Chance of Precipitation | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Location | Tonight | Tomorrow | Tomorrow night | Next day | Tonight | Tomorrow | Tomorrow night | Next day |
| Gadsden | 68 ℉ | 80 ℉ | 68 ℉ | 82 ℉ | 10% | 80% | 60% | 80% |
| Anniston | 70 ℉ | 80 ℉ | 69 ℉ | 81 ℉ | 20% | 60% | 60% | 80% |
| Birmingham | 70 ℉ | 80 ℉ | 70 ℉ | 82 ℉ | 20% | 90% | 60% | 70% |
| Tuscaloosa | 72 ℉ | 82 ℉ | 72 ℉ | 84 ℉ | 50% | 90% | 50% | 60% |
| Calera | 70 ℉ | 82 ℉ | 69 ℉ | 84 ℉ | 20% | 90% | 60% | 70% |
| Auburn | 71 ℉ | 81 ℉ | 70 ℉ | 83 ℉ | 20% | 40% | 40% | 30% |
| Montgomery | 72 ℉ | 83 ℉ | 70 ℉ | 85 ℉ | 20% | 80% | 30% | 30% |
| Troy | 70 ℉ | 84 ℉ | 70 ℉ | 86 ℉ | 20% | 60% | 30% | 20% |
BMX WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES
None.
DISCUSSION.../44/ AVIATION...08