Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

- Areas of morning fog northeast plains.

- Heating up today with isolated and gusty afternoon/early evening storms.

- Critical fire weather conditions across portions of the plains today, with widespread critical fire weather conditions expected in fuel-prone areas by Tuesday and Wednesday.

- Hottest temperatures this weekend, and then again Tuesday and potentially Wednesday. Highs generally in the mid 90s across the I-25 Corridor and plains, but near 100 possible over the northeast plains Tuesday.

- Brief respite in the heat Monday, and then increasing heat relief late next week.

DISCUSSION /Through Friday/

Issued at 221 AM MDT Sat Jun 6 2026

We'll remain under the influence of an upper level ridge today, with yesterday's slight cooling all but gone by this afternoon under the influence of warm advection and strong daytime heating. Despite the ridging, there is still sufficient low and mid level moisture (even some morning fog over the northeast plains) to keep isolated storms in the forecast this afternoon and early evening. The main feature of these will be gusty outflow winds to 50 mph given DCAPE increasing to near 1400 J/kg, but a couple storms could also bring briefly heavy rain and small hail considering a few hundred J/kg of MLCAPE and modest precipitable water to work with. With southerly breezes increasing, fire danger will as well - see more details in the Fire Weather Discussion section. High temperatures will soar into the mid 90s across most of the plains, but we think Denver's official high will be just a couple degrees shy of the record of 95F last set in 2018.

For Sunday, we'll likely add on a degree or two with more of a downslope component and a drier airmass spreading in from the southwest. However, we'll still likely be at least a couple degrees shy of the record high of 98F in Denver. That said, it will be hot and extra precaution should be taken if planning outdoor activities this weekend. We'll be just shy of Heat Advisory criteria.

We still expect a brief break from the heat on Monday, with high temperatures settling back into the 80s for the most part (the deterministic forecast lies on the warmer side of most guidance). In addition, the introduction of low level moisture will bring a return chance of afternoon and evening thunderstorms.

Tuesday is still shaping up to be a blast furnace type day with gusty southwest winds and hot temperatures. The increase in wind and temperatures will be supported by strengthening southwest flow aloft as Colorado lies in between a stronger trough entering the western U.S. and a dominating ridge centered over the Southern Plains. While guidance has "cooled" ever so slightly, we still think a couple of our lowest elevations on the northeast plains have a reasonable (50-60%) chance of reaching 100F. Denver should reach the mid to upper 90s, so the record of 95F is in jeopardy. Beyond that, there is still uncertainty to how fast the next trough pushes across the northern U.S. and thus how quickly we'll start to cool. A few runs are now cooling things off a little by Wednesday already, while there is more agreement that stronger cooling arrives Thursday and especially Friday and Saturday. The deterministic forecast again lies on the warmer side of the solutions, so likely we'll end up a little cooler than the current forecast by the time we reach Thursday and Friday.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday/

Issued at 501 AM MDT Sat Jun 6 2026

Winds are starting this TAF period from the W-SW and those should persist through about 15Z. Winds will then become VRB for a few hours before an expected E-SE wind develops 19Z-21Z and continues until disrupted by afternoon convection.

We still think isolated high based showers and storms resulting in gusty outflow winds will be the main threat again. While coverage of the actual convection is expected to be limited, the threat of gusty outflow winds emanating from showers will be high enough for at least a PROB30 and potentially TEMPO G35+ kts given DCAPE near 1400 J/kg. That could start as early as 20-21Z and potentially last until 03Z. By 03Z, expect enhanced southerly drainage winds with gusts of 20-25 kts possible at KDEN and KAPA, but those should gradually weaken overnight. VFR conditions will persist.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 221 AM MDT Sat Jun 6 2026

Locally critical fire weather conditions are expected to develop today as fuels over some of the plains would still be receptive per the latest updates from land managers. Overall, conditions are not terribly ripe for rapid fire spread however with marginal winds and humidity values, but we'll continue to highlight the threat with the existing Red Flag Warning for portions of the plains northeast of Denver.

Winds decrease over most of the plains for Sunday, so despite even warmer temperatures and lower humidities, we do not anticipate any highlights at this time. Meanwhile, mountain areas will see increasing winds and dryness, but fuels there are labeled as mostly not critical.

More widespread critical fire weather conditions will likely (>70% chance) develop by Tuesday. Wind gusts of 30-40 mph will combine with record heat and 6-12% humidity over most of the forecast area. We'll continue to seek input from land managers regarding fuel status updates given recent drying trends, as Tuesday has potential to see extremely critical conditions given the above mentioned parameters.

BOU WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning from noon today to 7 PM MDT this evening for COZ242>245-248.