Area Forecast Discussion

WHAT HAS CHANGED

The Aviation Section has been updated for the 12Z TAF issuance.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1) Dry conditions will persist through the weekend with rain chances increasing early next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Dry conditions will persist through the weekend with rain chances increasing early next week.

Aloft, mid-upper ridging will remain centered across the Southeast United States this weekend, supporting ample subsidence along the western periphery of a sfc high centered across the western Atlantic. The pattern will likely result in dry conditions across all areas through the weekend with temperatures typical of early summer (upper 80s/lower 90s Saturday, although some spots could approach the mid 90s along the I-95 corridor Sunday). Overnight lows will gradually warm each night, with upper 60s/lower 70s inland to mid 70s at the beaches and Downtown Charleston into early next week.

Rain chances will begin to increase early next week as mid-upper lvl ridging starts to weaken and moisture deepens within a southerly flow along the western periphery of the sfc high across the Atlantic. Greatest chances for rainfall should occur heading into mid-week with the approach of a front from the north, but guidance continues to suggest this feature to weaken/dissipate prior to reaching the South Santee River. The setup would more likely feature diurnally driven shower and thunderstorm activity, possibly along a seabreeze each afternoon Tuesday through late week.

AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

VFR conditions will prevail at CHS/JZI/SAV terminals through 12Z Sunday.

Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR conditions expected at all terminals through early next week. Brief flight restrictions possible with afternoon showers/thunderstorms Tuesday and Wednesday.

MARINE

Today and Tonight: South/southeast winds will prevail along the western periphery of an Atlantic high, topping out around 15 kt (highest along the land/sea interface where a sea breeze develops and shifts inland). Seas will range between 1-3 ft, largest tonight.

Sunday through Wednesday: Conditions will remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria through the period. High pressure will dominate over the marine waters through the weekend, with a weak cold front approaching on Tuesday. Winds will generally be out of the S, with a typical summertime pattern of a surge in gusts along the coast with the afternoon sea breeze.

CHS WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.