Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

- Near-Critical Fire Weather Conditions Today and Monday

- Warmer temperatures return next week with dry conditions through Wednesday

- Active weather pattern begins Thursday with storms possible.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 302 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

Current Conditions/Today:

A shortwave is moving across MN early this morning leading to a few light echo returns on radar. Surface observations occasionally show some light snow in the Red River Valley and on the outskirts of the Brainerd Lakes Region. This shortwave exits by mid morning with surface high pressure gradually building in from the northwest. Today will sport sunny skies and a few gusts around 15 mph out of the northwest. Expect highs to top out in the 40s across our south and 30s in the Borderlands.

Monday:

A low pressure system will be moving across northern Manitoba towards the Hudson Bay. This will lead to an increase of southwesterly winds across the region with a low level jet crossing the Red River Valley and into the Northland in the afternoon. Breezy conditions will be on tap with gusts upwards of 25-30 mph. This may lead to increased fire weather concerns as model soundings showcase an abundance of dry air in the lower levels. The main limiting factor with this set up looks to be cloud cover which remains a bit contested amongst the 00Z suite of guidance. For now, we have lowered Min RHs across our west to under 25%. This in combination with our increased winds may warrant Fire weather headlines.

Tuesday/Wednesday:

Quiet conditions for both Tuesday and Wednesday as surface high pressure moves across the region. High temps start in the 60s on Tuesday and climb into the 70s for Wednesday. Classic cooler by the Lake set up though with areas near the Lake remaining in the 50s.

Thursday/Friday:

Active weather besets the region once again as early as late Wednesday as an upper level trough makes its way across the Rockies. Ensemble low clusters are coming into good alignment with bringing the system across the Northern Plains Thursday into Friday. With the low being this far north it will help draw in more moisture from the south. Dewpoints could climb to near 60F increasing the instability across the region. An upper level jet will also be rounding the base of the trough and ejecting into the region Thursday bumping up the bulk shear needed to help sustain convection. Still a lot of fine details to work out as the event approaches but the AI models and the machine learning ensembles are showing decent agreement for strong to severe storms on Thursday.

Friday is when we start to see a noticeable split in models. The EPS family is leaning towards have the vertically stacked low retrograde across Ontario which would leave the region seeing persistent precipitation chances. But the GEFS family takes on the more progressive track having the system track east across the Great Lakes Region. For now the NBM is maintaining 20-30% PoPs in the extended forecast.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1219 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

VFR conditions through the forecast period, with a few fair weather CU this afternoon. Ahead of surface high pressure arriving tonight, northwest to north wind gusts up to 20-22kts are possible through early evening. Winds taper off after sunset with clear skies with surface high pressure moving in tonight. There might be a period of a few hours where winds are calm as the center of the surface high passes nearby. Winds increase from the southwest Monday morning, with gusts of 20-25kts by mid day, as the surface high pulls off to the east.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 302 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

Northwest winds are streaming across the Lake with the gusty winds being from Grand Maraias to Grand Portage. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect until 10AM. Southwesterly winds increase Monday afternoon and may lead to some building waves on the North Shore that warrant a Small Craft Advisory again.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 302 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

Low min RHs for today and tomorrow will lead to some elevated fire weather concerns. Today will see mostly sunny skies with RHs largely expected to drop below 25% across the region. Northwest winds will persist through the day with some gusts around 15 mph. Monday's forecast is a bit tricker as a low pressure system will be moving across northern Manitoba. A low level jet will cross the region providing us with increased wind speeds. Wind gusts out of the south may be on the order of 25-30 mph. Cloud cover remains the wrench in the forecast as some models are suggesting decent coverage through the day that would prevent rapid drying. The most likely areas to clear would be across our west where we have dropped Min RHs to below 25%. If we do get a fair amount of sunshine we could see these fall to below 20%. Fire weather headlines may be needed.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...None.