Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

- Elevated fire weather danger Sunday for areas north of the Iron Range in far northern MN.

- Hot and muggy conditions beset the region Tuesday and Wednesday. Heat headlines may be needed.

- Rain chances Sunday night through Monday. Severe storms chances return Tuesday and Wednesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1259 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

Current Conditions/Today:

An upper level ridge combined with surface high pressure is leading to a sunny and a quiet day across the region. Temperatures are expected to climb into the mid and upper 80s by this afternoon. Dry conditions are also on tap with Min RHs dropping into the 30s and mid 20s. Minimal wind today will keep fire weather danger in check. Overnight, some fog may advect in from Lake Superior with most guidance keeping it confined along the shoreline with some spillage at the head of the Lake into the St. Louis River and surrounding low lying areas.

Sunday:

The upper level trough shifts east with southwest flow aloft promoting further warming temperatures for the day. High temps are expected to climb into the the 90s and upper 80s with cooler temperatures remaining near Lake Superior. An emerging low pressure in the High Plains will lead to a strengthening pressure gradient over the region with southerly winds increasing. This increase in winds paired with dry conditions will prompt increased fire weather danger, particularly across our northwest counties near the Borderlands.

Monday:

Sunday night into Monday morning will see increased chances of shower and storm activity once again. The Northland will find itself firmly within a warm sector, the persistent southeast flow will have led to PWATs increasing to over 1.75" Isentropic ascent paired with an upper level trough moving in from the south will help to brew some showers. Some storms can't be ruled out as some weak MUCAPE will be in play, but bulk shear will be absent lending itself to non severe storms expected. Model soundings do show some deep saturation through the column which as currently depicted in the 12Z suite of deterministic guidance may lead to a nice soaking rain for a the Northland. One thing that will need to be monitored is the cold front advancing across the Northern Plains on Monday. Current guidance does not have it breaching our borders before becoming washed out and overtaken by strong warm air advection. But if it manages to maintain, it will have better deep layer shear and could introduce some severe storms across our west. Currently SPC has the threat outside of our region, but worth watching.

Tuesday/Wednesday:

The region then becomes beset with a warm and moist air mass for Tuesday and Wednesday. High temps will climb into the 90s and our dew points will float around the 60s and 70s with Wednesday expected to be the hottest and muggiest day of the week. Heat indices will go from 90F to some triple digits from the Brainerd lakes region into NW WI. Heat headlines may be needed.

As expected with a warm and moist air mass, severe potential cannot be ruled out for Tuesday and Wednesday. MLCAPE will frequently be in excess of 2000 J/kg. With the upper level pattern remaining meridional we will have multiple chances for impulses to roll through the region, if these can admix with diurnal heating we could see strong to severe storms. We are still a little ways out to get into the specifics but confidence is high enough with decent ensemble agreement that SPC has us highlighted in a slight risk for Wednesday, but would not fully rule out Tuesday's severe potential as well.

Late week into the weekend:

Cluster analysis shows an upper level low or wave ushering the warm and moist air mass off to the east. However, exact timing still remains in flux with CMCE and the GEFS being more progressive than the ECMWF. But if we take the overall blend from all the families we get relief from the heat starting Thursday and Friday. Precipitation activity also has low predictability at this time range with the Euro favoring a stalled out upper level low over the Canadian Prairies which would increase precipitation chances. The other families are a little less excited with a more progressive upper level pattern.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1259 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

VFR conditions through the forecast period. Light winds today as high pressure sits over the region. Tomorrow winds will turn to out of the southeast with some gusty winds for BRD/INL.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 1259 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

Southerly winds today around 5 to 10 knots. These winds will shift to out of the northeast early tomorrow morning. Speeds will increase in the afternoon with Small Craft Advisories likely needed through Monday night. Additionally, satellite does show some very transient fog moving across the Lake. There is potential for this to thicken up later this evening and impact the near shore waters. If this comes to fruition most of the guidance suggests that it will linger into the late morning hours on Sunday.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1259 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

Quiet weather for the weekend with mostly sunny skies and warm temperatures. We do dry out a bit today with Min RHs expected to drop to around 30% with a few areas north of the Iron Range flirting with near 25%. However, light and variable winds today as high pressure sits over the region leading to low fire weather concerns. Tomorrow, winds increase out of the southeast with another warm day on tap. While temperatures do warm, dew points will also increase a bit to help regulate the RHs. Not expecting to hit Red Flag criteria at this time but our Fire Weather Watch may need to be moved to Special Weather Statement for near critical fire weather conditions. Rain chances return late Sunday and persist through Monday.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

MN...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening for MNZ010-011-018. WI...None. MARINE...None.