Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

- Warmer today with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

- Frost advisory tonight into early Monday morning for portions of NE Missouri.

- Well above normal temperatures expected Tuesday through Thursday with breezy south southwesterly winds.

- Next chance for showers and thunderstorms comes Thursday into Friday. Strong to severe thunderstorms may be possible Thursday afternoon into Thursday night.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 248 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

Current H5 analysis shows a closed 506 dam low centered over NE Ontario with longwave troughing extending southward into the southeastern US, with our CWA situated on the western edge of said troughing beneath 60 to 70 knot northwesterly mid/upper flow. Meanwhile, at the surface, high pressure has built in, with clear skies, nearly calm winds, and 3 AM temperatures ranging from the upper 30s to the mid 40s. The aforementioned trough will continue to move off to the east today, with downslope flow and mid level height rises helping temperatures this afternoon return to the upper 60s to lower 70s across the CWA. Temperatures overnight tonight into early Monday should be a bit warmer compared to those of this morning for most locations except for NE Missouri, where low temps may range from 32 to 35 degrees. Thus, a frost advisory has been issued for Putnam and Schuyler counties in NE MO from midnight tonight through 9 AM Monday.

By Monday the eastern trough continues to move eastward, while a relatively high amplitude mid/upper trough approaches the West Coast, with ridging in between these two features building in over the CWA from the west, yielding increased mid level heights. Meanwhile, low level (850 to surface) flow will turn south southwesterly as a warm front lifts north through the CWA, bringing in some moisture return. This should result in high temps for Monday afternoon a few degrees warmer than today's (low to mid 70s for most locations) and dew points increasing from the 30s early Monday morning into the mid to upper 40s by Monday evening. After a couple morning of relatively chilly overnight temperatures, Monday night should feature temperatures only dipping into the 50s.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 248 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

The warming and moistening trend is expected to continue into Tuesday, with high temperatures forecast to rise into the upper 70s to lower 80s and dew points increasing into the mid 50s Tuesday afternoon, along with 15 mph SW winds and gusts up to 25 mph. PoPs have trended downward, with only around 10% PoP across NE MO Tuesday evening (better chances remain east of our CWA into Central IL). The western mid/upper trough is projected to enter into the western CONUS by Wednesday morning, reaching the Intermountain West by Wednesday afternoon. Similar conditions can be expected on Wednesday, with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s and breezy south southwesterly winds.

Guidance suggests the closed H5 low enters into the Northern Plains by early Thursday afternoon, with associated troughing extending southward into the Southern Plains and increased southwesterly deep layer flow overspreading the CWA. Meanwhile, a strong surface cyclone should enter the Dakotas by early Thursday afternoon, moving eastward into the Upper Mississippi Valley throughout Thursday afternoon and evening, with the attendant southward extending cold front approaching the CWA. Continued theta e advection should help dew points reach the low to mid 60s by Thursday afternoon/evening, and with a plume of 1000 to 1500+ J/kg of CAPE ahead of the approaching front and around 30 to 35 knots of deep layer bulk shear, organized updrafts capable of producing strong to severe storms will be possible Thursday afternoon/evening/night. SPC's latest update has brought the Day 5 (7 am Thursday to 7 am Friday) 15% risk area into almost the entire CWA. That being said, deep layer shear is not particularly strong and model soundings at the moment show relatively poor lapse rates and somewhat skinny CAPE profiles, so we will see how things trend as we get closer to Thursday. Models also show a plume of 1.3 to 1.5" PWATs ahead of the front, which may promote locally moderate rainfall. WPC has put almost the entire CWA within a marginal risk for excessive rainfall. The most recent NBM run shows around a 30 to 40 percent probability for rainfall to exceed 1" across the KC metro, with up to 60% probability of 1" or more of rain from Butler to Boonville. The cold front should move through the region sometime late Thursday night into Friday morning, although models differ a little bit with the exact timing and if the front completely pushes through the CWA or stalls out somewhere within the CWA. PoPs linger through Friday afternoon before clearing the region to the east by Friday evening/night.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1217 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

VFR conds will prevail thru the pd with just a ocnl few-sct high clouds. Winds will be shifting thru the pd but will begin the pd out of the WSW/W around 10kts before becmg ENE/NE aft 01z btn 5- 10kts. Aft 10Z winds will shift to the SE btn 7-12kts before becmg southerly btn 10-15kts aft 15Z.

EAX WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

MO...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Monday for MOZ007-008. KS...None.