Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

- Low to medium chances for isolated to scattered rains today.

- Warm and humid weather next week with most areas remaining dry.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Sunday night) Issued at 124 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

The upper-level low that contributed to last night's scattered torrential rains is moving northeast, allowing a conveyor belt of drier air aloft to work its way over South-Central Texas with the more favored regions for heavy rain being pushed north and east of the area. This subsidence should tend to have a suppressive effect on storm potential in our region today, though the continued presence of humid near-surface conditions should support isolated shower activity heading into the evening today. Chances are greatest east of I-35 (in the 30 to 50 percent range along the Highway 77 corridor) where PWATs are still in the 1.7-1.9 inch range (around the 90th-95th percentile) and could support a few locally heavier downpours. There is also a around 20 to 30 percent chance of isolated showers closer to the upper-level low over the Edwards Plateau and Hill Country through the evening, though overall moisture content will be lower than yesterday. Given the sensitivity of some of our soils from recent rains, it will still be worth monitoring any heavier shower that overlaps with the most saturated locations for increased runoff.

The core of the upper-level low is expected to move out of Texas tonight. However, the lack of a front and persistence of the subtropical jet stream over the state means southerly flow will likely keep the air humid over the area heading into the week ahead with mild nights and hot and muggy afternoons. The combination of moisture and warmth will start to promote higher heat indices (apparent temperatures). Heat indices are forecast to near or top 100F for many in the area Sunday, with the highest chances of heat indices reaching the 100-105F range in the Winter Garden and Rio Grande Plains. Trailing convergence from air funneling up towards the outgoing upper-level low may lead to a few afternoon showers and storms mainly east of I-35 on Sunday with chances around 20-30 percent.

LONG TERM

(Monday through next Saturday) Issued at 124 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

Broad but weak subtropical ridging will start to build over Gulf and our area Monday, and gradually slosh its way west through the upcoming week. This should keep most areas dry for the week, though southerly flow should continue to sweep in Gulf air beneath the ridge and may occasionally spark a few seabreeze showers and storms in the Coastal Plains each late-afternoon. Without much to clear out the influx of warm air, elevated temperatures and dew points will continue to drive up heat indices. Highs are forecast to remain in the 90s with lows in the 70s, but peak heat indices in the 100-105F range could become more widespread by the end of the week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1231 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

Opted to continue with VSCH at AUS, but will keep mention of precip out at other sites due to lack of confidence. MVFR ceilings return tonight after 05Z and fall to IFR by 10Z. Confidence is high in IFR ceilings developing towards sunrise and then lifting by mid-morning. Winds will increase out of the south to southeast at 10-12 kts Sunday, along with VFR ceilings returning by 17Z.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

EWX WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

None.