Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

- Flood Watch has been allowed to expire as heavy rainfall concerns begin to shift north of the region.

- Rain chances continue Saturday, with the favored areas remaining mainly east of I-35/I-37.

- Warmer temperatures next week, with most ares remaining dry.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Sunday) Issued at 130 AM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

Rain continues across portions of south central Texas early this morning. The highest totals as estimated by radar have been in northwest Travis into southwest Williamson Counties where radar estimated a fairly widespread area of 4 to 6 inches. There are some higher totals embedded within this region and while radar estimates from GRK could be a little high, suspect there will be some totals near 8 inches after the rain ends.

Radar trends continue to show some deeper convection developing a little farther north of our region into central Texas. Given current radar trends and hi-res model data, we have allowed the Flood Watch to expire. We could still see some pockets of brief moderate rainfall, but rain cooled air should help stabilize the lower levels through the remainder of tonight.

On Saturday, the best chance for rain appears to be confined to areas generally east of the I-35/I-37 corridor where precipitable water values will be highest. We can't rule out some isolated showers and storms across the Hill Country and perhaps the I-35 corridor, but overall rain chances should remain fairly low (20-40%). High temperatures should be able to nudge upward for most areas, with mid 80s to lower 90s expected.

Some lingering upper lift in the weakening southwest flow aloft could promote a few afternoon showers and storms mainly east of I-35 on Sunday. Highs should be fairly similar to Saturday, albeit a little warmer out west along the Rio Grande as afternoon clearing helps boost highs into the mid 90s.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 130 AM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

A broad, but fairly weak subtropical high will build across Texas and the Gulf through much of the upcoming week. This will keep most areas dry along with temperatures at or above normal for early June. Highs should remain in the 90s along with lows in the 70s. We can't rule out some sea breeze showers and storms near the coastal plains, but confidence is too low to mention at this time.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1231 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

Opted to continue with VSCH at AUS, but will keep mention of precip out at other sites due to lack of confidence. MVFR ceilings return tonight after 05Z and fall to IFR by 10Z. Confidence is high in IFR ceilings developing towards sunrise and then lifting by mid-morning. Winds will increase out of the south to southeast at 10-12 kts Sunday, along with VFR ceilings returning by 17Z.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

EWX WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

None.