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000 FXUS64 KEWX 191735 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 1235 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026...New AVIATION...KEY MESSAGES
- Rain to retreat south today with dry air building into most areas; light showers to remain possible south of Highway 90.
- Rain and storms to rebound north again Sunday evening with rain likely Monday and likely again for the eastern two-thirds of the area Tuesday.
- Cool weather continues into Tuesday with near normal temperatures Wednesday.
SHORT TERM
(Today through Monday) Issued at 1245 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026
Much lower impact weather is expected for today as the rain and thunder chances move mostly out of the forecast area. Some residual shower could continue over the Rio Grande Plains and lower Coastal Prairies but a drier airmass invades the higher terrain areas and down across much of the I-35 Corridor. With dry dewpoints moving into the Hill Country we'll see some chilly morning lows in the 40s there, but cloud cover will make the cold air less effective in moving south of the escarpment. Today's highs will also be moderated by cloud cover with our coolest makes possibly being over the southwest counties where there might still be rain as well.
This evening the pattern shifts again and overrunning of the frontal inversion increases back northward. Initially a shortwave ridge over TX blocks the moisture return, but upstream troughing will be effective in nudging the shortwave ridge eastward by Monday. Prior model runs depicted the front to be more effective and maintaining a deep inversion into Monday, but the latest runs show a weaker and more shallow front that will allow for some good overrunning rains. With more cloud cover returning to all areas, the highs for Monday should be cooler than Sunday for most areas. Best post-frontal QPF amounts may have already occurred overnight, but there does appear to be a fair amount of moisture that could generate a few strong storms and locally heavy downpours over 1 inch. There could be a few areas, like Pandale for example, that will not see any meaningful rain through this period, but most areas should get at least 1/4 between early this morning and Monday afternoon.
LONG TERM
(Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 1245 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026
Areas east of I-35 have been hit and miss on the rains over the last few events, and the start of this one hasn't been much different. Tuesday could be the day for the market correction if that market is rain. Some of WPC's highest QPF amounts are saved for Tuesday morning for around Austin and into much of the Coastal Prairies. This is partly because of a more easterly wind that hasn't fully broken down the overrunning pattern and partly because western counties will be seeing the return of a shortwave ridge. Some residual showers are forecast for Wednesday, but we don't see that producing much QPF, and there could be a cap that suppresses this built up low level moisture. The warmer temperatures return Thursday after a near normal temperature day Wednesday.
Late week rain opportunities under a shallow but broad upper ridge will be in low confidence, but we at least expect the humidity to be there. By next weekend we could see a flatter zonal pattern that could lead to some more storms, possibly of the dry-line variety.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1221 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026
A wide cloud deck with mainly FL040-FL060 CIGs extends along and south of KDRT to KSAT to KT20 line with scattered -RA. This should expand north today and tonight. Some models show emergent TSRA beginning 21Z near KUVA/KPEZ beginning 21Z, but coverage and confidence was too low to include a mention for TAF terminals. CIGs are expected to lower to at least MVFR and IFR CIGs regionwide overnight, but there is significant disagreement between statistical aids and hi-res models in depictions of CIGs, with the former more bullish with low CIGs. Have leaned towards the statistical aids for the 18Z TAFs given low-level moisture and likely -RA to bring down CIGs, with higher confidence at KDRT. Expect some VIS reductions accompanying -RA. The CIG forecast after 12Z is relatively uncertain as -RA shifts north and east. A gradual shift to east winds is ongoing throughout the region and should persist Monday, subject to typical diurnal variations.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
| Temperatures | Chance of precipitation | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Location | Tonight | Tomorrow | Tomorrow night | Next day | Tonight | Tomorrow | Tomorrow night | Next day |
| Austin Camp Mabry | 56 ℉ | 66 ℉ | 57 ℉ | 71 ℉ | 30% | 50% | 70% | 70% |
| Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport | 55 ℉ | 65 ℉ | 57 ℉ | 70 ℉ | 30% | 60% | 70% | 70% |
| New Braunfels Muni Airport | 54 ℉ | 65 ℉ | 57 ℉ | 72 ℉ | 40% | 70% | 70% | 70% |
| Burnet Muni Airport | 53 ℉ | 62 ℉ | 55 ℉ | 68 ℉ | 30% | 60% | 70% | 70% |
| Del Rio Intl Airport | 53 ℉ | 62 ℉ | 59 ℉ | 77 ℉ | 60% | 60% | 50% | 10% |
| Georgetown Muni Airport | 54 ℉ | 64 ℉ | 56 ℉ | 67 ℉ | 20% | 50% | 70% | 70% |
| Hondo Muni Airport | 51 ℉ | 62 ℉ | 57 ℉ | 72 ℉ | 60% | 70% | 70% | 60% |
| San Marcos Muni Airport | 54 ℉ | 65 ℉ | 57 ℉ | 71 ℉ | 40% | 70% | 70% | 70% |
| La Grange - Fayette Regional | 56 ℉ | 68 ℉ | 59 ℉ | 72 ℉ | 30% | 50% | 60% | 70% |
| San Antonio Intl Airport | 55 ℉ | 64 ℉ | 58 ℉ | 72 ℉ | 50% | 70% | 70% | 70% |
| Stinson Muni Airport | 56 ℉ | 64 ℉ | 59 ℉ | 73 ℉ | 50% | 70% | 70% | 70% |
EWX WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES
None.
SHORT TERM...18 LONG TERM....18 AVIATION...Tran