Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

- A cold front will bring scattered showers to portions of north and central Georgia this morning, with most areas seeing under 0.10" of rain, if any at all.

- A Red Flag Warning is in effect for this afternoon and evening for most of the area. Critical fire weather conditions are likely to continue daily through the week.

- Cooler temperatures today into Monday morning, with highs returning into the 80s by mid-week with continued dry weather.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Monday) Issued at 233 AM EDT Sun Apr 19 2026

Morning Showers Then Cool, Dry, and Breezy:

A cold front and weakening line of showers will push southeast across north and central Georgia this morning, exiting the area by this afternoon. While around 0.1-0.25" of rain will be seen across northwest Georgia, the rest of the area will be lucky to even see 0.05". Behind the front, breezy northwest winds with frequent gusts to 25-30 mph will develop, and usher in a dry and cool airmass. This will create critical fire weather conditions, which is discussed more in the Fire Weather section below. By this afternoon, skies will become increasingly sunny, and high temperatures will struggle to climb out of the 60s across north GA, and low to mid 70s in central GA. Temperatures tonight will fall into the low to mid 40s across the area. On Monday, the airmass will slightly warm, with high temps in the low to mid 70s in north GA, and mid to upper 70s in central GA. Winds will not be as breezy as today, but will still gust to around 20 mph during the afternoon.

LONG TERM

(Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 233 AM EDT Sun Apr 19 2026

A warming trend will be underway at the start of the forecast period on Tuesday, though cool temperatures will still start the day on Tuesday morning amid lows in the 40s to near 50. Surface high pressure over the western Atlantic will maintain its grip through the bulk of the week ahead, while midlevel ridging will build eastward by midweek, at which point temperatures rebound to the above-normal values we've been used to this April.

All this is to say that fire weather concerns will remain a persistent theme Tuesday-Friday with no rainfall through this time frame and minimum RH values well into critical threshold territory.

Return of Rain Chances?

There does finally appear to be some hope for desperately needed rainfall by next weekend as troughing digs into the Plains states, sending a cold front southeastward. Hopefully this more promising pattern will bring us some beneficial rainfall with signals that a wetter pattern could also stick around beyond the end of the current forecast period. These details will become clearer over coming days. Until then, parched conditions will prevail.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 644 AM EDT Sun Apr 19 2026

A line of SHRA and low VFR to MVFR CIGs associated with a cold front will impact the ATL area and CSG sites through around 13-14Z this morning. Impacts are less likely for AHN and MCN as the line weakens. Skies rapidly clear behind the front with VFR the rest of the period. Winds out of the NW and breezy at 15-20 kts with gusts to 30 kts through this evening, before weakening to 10 kts or less overnight.

//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...

Medium in CIGs this morning. High on all other elements.

Culver

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 233 AM EDT Sun Apr 19 2026

Critical fire weather conditions will develop today immediately following behind the cold front as winds become breezy and a very dry airmass moves in. Despite any rainfall this morning, we are still expecting fuels to be dry by this afternoon given the very dry antecedent conditions. The combination of these fuels with relative humidity falling into the 20s and northwest winds gusting as high as 30 mph has prompted the issuance of a Red Flag Warning across most of the area from noon to 8 PM today. Outdoor burning is strongly discouraged due to the potential for fires to rapidly spread. Unfortunately, critical fire weather conditions may return again on Monday afternoon, though winds will be a little weaker than today. With the dry airmass expected to remain over the area for most of this week, daily fire concerns will persist.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

FFC WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>061-066>073-078>084- 089>096-102>108.