Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

- Daily chances for isolated to scattered showers and storms continue this week, mainly across Central and East TX.

- Mild temperatures warm back to near/above normal mid to late week.

SHORT TERM

(Today and tonight) Issued at 120 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

Lingering post-frontal showers have largely exited Central Texas as of midnight, with precipitation confined to our far southern counties. This activity will continue to push south and east, and is expected to fully exit our CWA in the next hour or two. Through the rest of the early morning, cloud cover will also continue to shift southward as drier air moves into the region on the backside of the departing trough.

The rest of Sunday will be quiet as the post-frontal surface high slides across the Southern Plains. Morning low temperatures will be chilly mainly in the upper 30 to upper 40s. However, with winds becoming light across much of North Texas amongst clearing skies, it would not be surprising to see spots in our north and western counties that drop a bit lower into the mid 30s. Usually, light winds, clearing skies, and primed soils from recent rain would promote the potential for patchy fog development. We may be a bit too dry for any widespread development this morning, but I would not be surprised if there was some occurrences of patchy fog in low-lying spots that are able to drop a bit more in temperature. The aforementioned surface high will slide to our east/southeast later today, returning winds out of the southeast.

Ridging will continue to build atop the Southern Plains as we head through today into Monday. Ample moisture remaining in the Gulf will begin to surge northward across far west Texas starting tonight. This increased moisture will slowly move east through the day on Monday, while at the same time a shortwave disturbance is expected to move overhead. The incoming lift and moisture will promote a blossoming of scattered showers starting off to our west in the morning, and will slowly spread east the rest of the day.

LONG TERM

(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 120 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

Additional higher-coverage showers are expected to spread across the region going into Tuesday morning, with the majority of the light rainfall occurring during this period. Highest coverage will likely be confined to our Central Texas counties, where up to around an inch of rainfall is most reasonable through midweek. Further north, expect lower totals less than an inch. Most of the activity will exit the region late Tuesday as the disturbance shifts east, though lingering isolated showers are expected across East Texas until Wednesday afternoon. With ridging once again building into the region on Wednesday, temperatures are expected to warm up back into the 70s and 80s. A return to unsettled weather is expected late this week into the weekend as longwave troughing sets up across the western CONUS and slowly spreads east. Smaller disturbances are progged to eject out ahead of the main trough, with a low-medium (ranging from 20-40%) potential for daily isolated-scattered showers and storms Thursday through the weekend.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 515 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

Mid-upper level clouds continue to stream atop the TAF sites this morning, but will decline in coverage through the rest of the morning and afternoon. Light northerly winds will gradually transition to more of an east to east-southeast wind of 8-10 kt mid-late morning, with north-south flow change likely around 15Z. Late tonight, winds will veer even further out of the southeast, becoming light in speed again overnight with returning mid-upper cloud cover. Outside of the period, showers are expected to spread from west to east over the day Monday, but any impacts will be handled in future TAF issuances.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

FWD WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

None.