Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

- Additional showers and storms will affect much of North and Central Texas this evening through Sunday morning. Localized heavy rainfall and flash flooding is the main hazard, and a Flood Watch is in effect for much of North Texas.

- A few strong storms capable of gusty winds and hail are also possible from this afternoon into tonight across the Big Country. - Warmer and rain-free weather will return for most of the upcoming week with heat index values at or above 100 degrees each afternoon.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Sunday) Issued at 132 AM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

Flash flooding will be at the forefront of concerns through the next ~36 hours as a slow-moving upper low interacts with rich Gulf moisture content to produce locally heavy rainfall.

As of midnight, an upper low positioned over the Permian Basin continues to make gradual northeastward progress, its attendant ascent clearly evident by widespread shower and thunderstorm activity stretching from the Texas Hill Country to southwestern Oklahoma. Most of this convection is expected to remain west of the CWA this morning and tied more closely to the center of the upper low. However, scattered convection with moderate/heavy rainfall will continue to affect our Central Texas counties through the pre-dawn hours, before a likely rapid expansion up the I-35 corridor occurs around or after sunrise. Most of the activity through the daytime is likely to be near and east of I-35 within a band a localized ascent, while the western half of the CWA stays relatively inactive through the afternoon hours.

By this evening, the upper low and trough axis along with anomalously high PW values will become juxtaposed such that widespread new convective development capable of heavy rainfall will begin training across western portions of North Texas, and this could persist for several hours into Sunday morning. Where exactly this corridor of heavy rainfall will materialize is still uncertain, but recent high-res guidance has been consistently targeting an area roughly near/west of I-35 and near/north of I-20. The 00z HREF PMM guidance suggests a reasonable worst-case bulls-eye of as mush as 8-10" of rain, but we will advertise a slightly more conservative 6-8" in the recently issued Flood Watch as these higher-end values are only supported by 1-2 ensemble members at this time.

In addition to the flooding threat, there may also be a few strong or marginally severe storms with hail/wind hazards mainly from late this afternoon into tonight, but this potential overall remains rather low. The slightly cooler mid-level temps in closer proximity to the cold core low may steepen lapse rates sufficiently to support a few occurrences of hail. The microburst potential will be on the low side with an overall poor thermodynamic environment in the presence of tropical-like thermal profiles and low cloud bases.

Shower and thunderstorm activity will steadily taper off from west to east during the daytime Sunday with the eventual departure of the ejecting upper trough axis, and most of the area will clear out by mid afternoon. Due to clearing skies, high temperatures will be able to climb a few degrees higher than preceding days with many areas peaking near 90 degrees.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 132 AM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

The long term portion of the forecast appears rather uneventful at this time following the departure of the weekend storm system. As the trough axis vacates the area to the northeast, mid-level ridging will take its place, and a 590+ dam high will build in through most of the upcoming workweek. This will mean a return to above normal temperatures with highs in the mid 90s and some upper 90s possible through the second half of the week. This will also be our first extended period so far this summer of heat index values near or exceeding 100F while overnight lows only fall to the mid or upper 70s. Some medium-range guidance is suggesting a possible frontal intrusion next weekend, but that is a climatologically unlikely scenario that is difficult to believe at this time range.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1207 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

Generally VFR conditions expected throughout the afternoon and evening with scattered clouds at around 2000ft. Another round or two of thunderstorms is anticipated to move in from the west by 06Z and perhaps as early as 04Z. Currently carrying a Prob30 for storms at most TAF sites to account for this although TEMPO groups will likely be needed for later TAF packages as confidence increases. MVFR ceilings should persist behind any thunderstorms tomorrow morning with IFR ceilings looking likely at Waco.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

FWD WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

Flood Watch through Sunday afternoon for TXZ091>094-100>104- 115>119-129>134-141.