Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

- A cold front will create a wide range in temperatures for highs today.

- Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible late this afternoon and this evening. - A second wave of showers and thunderstorms is expected for Sunday along with cooler temperatures.

DISCUSSION

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: A developing low pressure system and low level jet at 850 millibars overnight are expected to bring isolated to scattered showers with a few thunderstorms to areas north of the Missouri River through 6 AM this morning. The low pressure system will become more developed during the day today and bring a cold front as far east as Scobey, Wolf Point and the Prairie/Garfield County Line. This will create about a 20-25 degree spread in highs today with mid 70s in western Phillips County and mid to upper 90s east. Atmosphere will become increasingly unstable today with the greatest instability near the North Dakota border where CAPE reaches around 2000 j/kg around 00z this evening. The best chances for severe weather today will be between 4 PM and midnight with large hail and damaging winds being the main threats.

An upper level trough moves through the area Sunday afternoon and night. A secondary cold front will move the area during the day on Sunday. Lingering instability will bring chances for showers and thunderstorms with severe storms possible again mainly near the North Dakota border where temperatures will be much warmer than in the west.

The pattern appears to stay in southwest flow aloft until a large upper trough moves into the region on Wednesday. Monday looks dry at the moment with a shortwave ridge in the SW flow aloft. Otherwise, look for frequent chances for showers and thunderstorms for most of next week.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:

Pops were increased somewhat early this morning for showers that are occurring in Phillips and Valley Counties at 06z. Otherwise, No deviations were made.

There is high confidence of thunderstorms occurring late this afternoon and this evening, with moderate confidence of them being strong to severe especially in the east.

There is high confidence on temperatures in the east and lower confidence in the west today depending on the location of the cold front. There is low confidence on temperatures for Sunday based on high uncertainty with the timing of the secondary cold front.

There is high confidence a Lake Wind Advisory will be needed for Fort Peck Lake on Sunday afternoon and evening.

There is high confidence of scattered showers and storms occurring for various parts of the area Tuesday and beyond next week.

AVIATION

LAST UPDATED: Saturday June 6, 2026 at 0700Z.

FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR.

DISCUSSION: As a low pressure system develops early this morning, there will be scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms moving through KOLF and KGGW. KSDY and KGDV appear to be too far southeast to see these storms. This activity is expected to diminish around 12Z. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop after 22z this afternoon and continue through tonight. Areas of MVFR conditions are possible in any thunderstorms that occur. Some storms between 22z and 06z could become severe with large hail and wind gust over 50 knots.

WIND: Low pressure over the area will create variable winds today. KGGW will have NE winds 5 to 10 knots this morning that will veer to the SE this afternoon and become north 10 to 20 knots after 00z with a cold front. KOLF will have east winds 5 to 10 knots this morning that will veer to the south this afternoon and become north to NE 10 to 20 knots after 01z with a cold front. KSDY and KGDV will have south to SE winds 5 to 15 knots this morning increasing to 10 to 20 knots this afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds are expected this evening until they become north to NE 10 to 15 knots after 06z.

GGW WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

None.