Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

- High rainfall rates today will result in minor flooding of poor drainage areas as well as a risk for isolated to scattered flash flooding.

- Look for increasing winds/seas/rip current risk along the coast through Monday.

- Decreased rain chances and increasing heat risk are expected through the coming week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1223 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

Scattered to numerous showers with a few thunderstorms are currently developing with daytime heating and onshore low-level flow, downstream of an upper low over the Texas Panhandle. There's been little change in the tropical air mass over the area with saturated profiles, PWATs of 2-2.2", and high freezing levels. This will once again be favorable for efficient/high rainfall rates of 2-3" or more per hour. 500mb flow around 25-30kts will keep cells moving, and there isn't any particular focusing mechanism, but uni-directional 850-500mb flow may allow localized training. 12z HREF guidance continues to indicate potential for localized 3-4"+ amounts. This combined with recent heavy rainfall/lower flash flood guidance will result in the potential for street flooding and rises on streams and bayous, along with isolated to widely scattered flash flooding. A level 2 out of 4 (slight risk) of excessive rainfall remains in effect. Activity should diminish this evening, though a few isolated showers may develop overnight given the moist air mass.

By Sunday the upper low will open up into a shortwave trough and lift northeastward towards Kansas and Missouri. An upper-level jet streak will remain across southeast Texas, with a mid-level shear axis getting left behind as well. PWATs will remain near 2 inches with high low-level moisture, but some drier air aloft will move in as well. A decrease in coverage of showers and storms is expected, more in the isolated to scattered range. Some isolated heavy rainfall rates will remain possible with any storms. Any stronger storms that do get going would also have a bit more potential for gusty winds than previous days due to the dry air aloft/DCAPE and an uptick in mid-level lapse rates.

Mid-level ridging builds over the south-central CONUS and western Gulf Monday through the rest of the week. This ridging combined with drier air aloft will result in a decrease in coverage of diurnal convection. However, with continued hot and humid conditions, onshore flow, and the sea breeze, rain chances will not go to zero. Some adjustments to PoPs will probably occur as we get closer. Heat indices will be mainly in the 100 to 107 range, though a few spots may be near 108 by the end of the week. Heat Risk will mostly be in the "moderate" category, though later in the week a few patches of Heat Risk in the "major" category begin to show up.

JDavis

AVIATION

(12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 516 AM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

A mixed bag of ceilings early this morning ranging from LIFR to VFR. Ceilings are expected to remain at or below MVFR through the early to mid-morning hours before returning to VFR by the late morning/early afternoon. Main aviation impact for the day beyond ceilings will be timing of scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms. Latest high-resolution model guidance is pointing towards activity along the coast gradually increasing in coverage later this morning, then coverage vastly expanding going into the late morning and early afternoon. Decreased ceilings/visibilities expected in heavy downpours. The timing of the TEMPOs is the highest confidence window for showers/storms, but it's entirely possible for these conditions to occur a couple of hours before or after this timeframe.

Shower/storm coverage decreases this evening, but so do ceilings as widespread MVFR to IFR ceilings are anticipated once again going into Sunday morning. Isolated to scattered showers/storms are expected to develop again beginning Sunday morning.

Batiste

MARINE

Issued at 1223 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

Persistent onshore flow continues for the coastal waters for the weekend and much of next week. Winds will remain southeasterly at around 10 to 15 knots but will increase to 15 to 20 knots late tonight into early tomorrow. Small craft exercise caution flags have been issued for tonight into Sunday afternoon, and will likely be needed for Sunday night as well. Seas will be around 2 to 4 ft, as high as 5 ft in the far offshore waters. Isolated showers and storms will remain possible at times, with the relatively highest chances near the bays today.

JDavis

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

HGX WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

TX...High Rip Current Risk through Monday morning for TXZ436>439.

GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution from 10 PM CDT this evening through Sunday afternoon for GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375.