Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

- Chances for showers and storms to increase today and will linger through Monday morning.

- Hot and very humid conditions increasingly likely mid-week next week.

- Chances for showers and storms to increase again towards the end of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 342 AM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

Early this morning, much of Kansas remains between two areas of activity located over Nebraska and Oklahoma. While the showers and storms over Nebraska will eventually track eastward away from the forecast area, an upper trough over the southern plains will slowly lumber northward today and be the primary catalyst for increasing chances for showers and storms this afternoon and evening. Lackluster shear and poor lapse rates will likely limit the intensity of any storm that develops; however, gusty winds from downbursts are still possible with the strongest storms. Even with the loss of diurnal heating, showers and storms will continue during the nighttime hours and well into Sunday morning. In terms of coverage, much of the activity will likely be focused across southern and eastern Kansas with more isolated activity anticipated across central Kansas. A brief break is possible midday Sunday before another round of diurnally driven convection develops Sunday afternoon, mainly across eastern Kansas. Similar to today, modest shear and instability will keep a lid on storm intensity, but an isolated downburst here and there could produce locally gusty winds. Meanwhile, a trough slowly moving over the Rockies and into the northern High Plains will support scattered thunderstorm development across the High Plains Sunday afternoon and evening. While there is a low chance that some of these storms could sneak into central Kansas Sunday evening and night, trends have pushed this activity further north into Nebraska. Therefore, aside from some lingering showers across far eastern Kansas, most of the rain chances should end late Sunday night into Monday morning. Similar to Sunday, another round of storms appears likely to develop across the High Plains Monday afternoon; however, this activity looks less likely to enter into central Kansas than 24 hours ago thanks in part to a strengthening mid/upper ridge across the southern CONUS.

While the aforementioned ridge will help to temporarily shut off rain chances, it will serve to promote an early season heat wave across the central plains. Despite ample moisture from all of the recent rainfall, afternoon temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday are currently forecast to be in the mid 90s to the low 100s. Given forecast dewpoints in the 60s and 70s (and perhaps in the upper 70s across southeast Kansas), heat indices will easily reach 105 to 110, especially across southern and southeast Kansas. The mid/upper ridge is forecast to weaken toward the end of next week as a series of anomalously powerful deep layer troughs begin to parade across the northern and central CONUS. As such, chances for showers and storms will be on the increase heading into the end of the next week and the following weekend. Stay tuned for updates to the forecast over the coming days.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1241 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

Rain showers with MVFR cigs will be the main story through the TAF period. Showers will push in from the south, impacting KCNU first towards the start of the TAF period, then filtering into KICT, KHUT, and KSLN later this afternoon and eventually into KGBD and KRSL overnight. Isolated thunderstorms are possible, though confidence is decreasing, especially for terminals farther west and north (KSLN, KRSL, and KGBD). Have included PROB30 groups to cover the most likely period of thunderstorm activity through the afternoon and evening for KCNU, KICT, and KHUT. Heavy rainfall rates and gusty winds would be the main concern with stronger storms, particularly at KCNU.

Cigs will begin to improve from west to east after sunrise Sunday, but showers will remain possible through the end of the TAF period.

ICT WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

None.