Area Forecast Discussion

WHAT HAS CHANGED

All sections updated but overall there were no significant changes to the previous forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) No appreciable improvement in drought conditions for the next week across SE NC and NE SC as no widespread significant rainfall is expected; dry conditions will lead to an enhanced fire danger in NC through at least this weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...No appreciable improvement in drought conditions for the next week across SE NC and NE SC as no widespread significant rainfall is expected; dry conditions will lead to an enhanced fire danger in NC through at least this weekend.

DESCRIPTION...Low-level Atlantic high pressure will extend westward across the area while upper-level high pressure prevails over the area thru the weekend. This will lead to continued dry conditions and an enhanced fire danger in southeast NC as per state fire officials, especially away from the coast where hotter temperatures and lower dewpoints are expected to lead to lower relative humidity down to around 30-35 percent. Although we are not forecasting any rain, wouldn't be completely surprised if at least a few showers develop near the coast along the sea breeze Sun aftn as instability should be a bit greater than past days.

A weak cold front moving into the area later Mon could bring a few showers/storms, especially inland portions of NC, but latest forecast trends continue to show lower rain chances. Low to moderate rain chances are expected thereafter thru Fri, mainly due to an inland trough and sea breeze, but no widespread significant rainfall is anticipated.

AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

High confidence in VFR conditions persisting through the next 24 hours. Winds mainly light, except gusting to near 20 kt around the coast this afternoon as the sea breeze develops.

Extended Forecast...VFR to generally prevail thru Wed. Very low risk for restrictions from early morning fog thru Mon AM with a bit better risk for at least MVFR cigs starting Mon night behind a passing cold front and some showers/storms (mainly at KLBT Mon PM and at KLBT/KFLO Tue PM.

MARINE

Saturday through Wednesday...Atlantic high pressure will extend westward over the local waters producing a typical summertime regime into early next week with the only concern being enhanced gustiness near the coast in the aftn/eve due to the sea breeze. A weak cold front should then move into and/or through the area later Mon/Mon night before high pressure returns but with no significant pressure gradients expected we don't see much increase in winds/seas and no potential for Small Craft Advisory conditions thru Wed.

ILM WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.