Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry weather will resume today and continue through much of the upcoming week.

- Confidence is increasing for significant rainfall amounts late this week into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 327 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

Through next week: Light rain will end and clouds will clear behind the front as very dry air ushers in this morning. This will also be accompanied by around 10 mph winds. While there was widespread rain in the past 12 hrs or so, the light amounts will offer little fire danger mitigation. Overall, the fire threat will have to be monitored as we go through the next few days and as conditions dry out. /SAS/EC/

Dry conditions will continue into next week as ridging becomes reestablished. It will reinforce the dry air by redirecting moist trajectories westward and deflect energy away from the area. Things look to change later in the week as an upper low ejects from the west and becomes phased with the polar jet. The subtropical jet noses in creating a split flow regime. This will lead to broad upper difluence over the region and should promote increased rain chances later next week. This is certainly good news as this looks to continue even beyond the period. While flow is perturbed, it is too soon to tell how the subtropical high will influence any potential severe chances. /SAS/

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 621 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

Most TAF sites have become VFR this morning and this will continue through the remainder of the period. The winds will be gusty out of the north through the morning into the afternoon hours, but will diminish later this afternoon.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

JAN WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

MS...None. LA...None. AR...None.