Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

- Much cooler weather will last through early Tuesday. Frost is possible in northern locations tonight/early Monday with a frost or freeze possible across much of eastern Kentucky on Monday night/early Tuesday.

- Elevated fire weather concerns exist through at least Wednesday.

- Above normal temperatures return late in the week, along with the next chance for area wide rainfall by the weekend.

UPDATE

Issued at 128 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2026

Teh forecast through the remainder of the daylight hours remains on track. A Frost Advisory has been issued for Fleming County late tonight into early Monday morning. A Freeze Watch has also been issued for late Monday night into Tuesday morning for those counties with highly dissected terrain due to increasing confidence for a frost or light freeze in the sheltered valleys.

UPDATE Issued at 1050 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2026

Forecast is on track. Low clouds have largely departed into Virginia behind the exiting cold front. Looking ahead the remainder of the day, look for mostly sunny skies with a developing shallow cumulus field (most extensive north of the Mountain Parkway). It will be breezy and cool with high temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Monday evening) Issued at 812 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2026

The cold front which brought showers/thunderstorms has departed to our southeast and the last of its clouds are exiting as surface ridging builds in from the west early this morning. The supporting upper trough axis will pass through today and tonight, with another impulse dropping to the base of the trough tonight. This bring a secondary cold front through. At the least, there will be an increase in clouds. Models have also been showing more potential for light precip, and a 20% POP was carried for most place overnight or early Monday. Clearing is expected before dawn in our far northern counties, and that could allow for frost (especially in valleys). The best shot at frost will be on Monday night, with clear skies for the duration of the night. Warm air advection will return during the night, which will keep ridges milder, but most valleys should be decoupled and able to cool down.

LONG TERM

(After midnight Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 812 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2026

The period will start with west northwest flow aloft and a dry air mass still in place. Another cold front will approach from the north on Wednesday, but is likely to stall to our north as upper level ridging builds in from the west and the front loses momentum. There could be just enough moisture that makes its way eastward along the front to support a few showers/thunderstorms, mainly in our northern counties. The upper ridge then holds any more systems at bay until the weekend arrives, at which time it breaks down and another cold front tries to push in from the north or northwest and stalls. With a surface boundary and flatter flow aloft, we could finally see a more prolonged precip potential.

AVIATION

(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon) ISSUED AT 128 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2026

VFR conditions were observed at TAF issuance and will prevail through the forecast period. Any shallow cu at around 8 to 10 kft AGL this afternoon will dissipate this evening with the loss of diurnal heating. A moisture-starved cold front drops in from the north tonight with a period of mid-level cloud cover and the possibility of a sprinkle or very light rain shower.

Winds will be westerly at 8 to 14 kts with gusts of 20 to 25 kts for many terminals this afternoon. Winds slacken tonight and become variable with the front before turning northerly around 5 kts on Monday.

JKL WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

Frost Advisory from 4 AM to 9 AM EDT Monday for KYZ044.

Freeze Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday morning for KYZ052-060-069-086>088-104-106>120.