Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry and very warm conditions continue through tonight, with afternoon highs in the mid to upper 80s.

- Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms return Sunday afternoon and persist through most of next week.

- Rain chances peak Monday through Wednesday, with high moisture supporting a risk for locally heavy rainfall.

- Humid conditions continue through the week, with afternoon highs remaining generally in the 80s.

UPDATE

Issued at 1045 AM EDT SAT JUN 6 2026

Cloud cover is beginning to mix out in SE KY this morning, and temperatures have begun their climb towards widespread highs in the mid 80s. We witnessed a few sprinkles during our commutes to the WFO along the KY-30 corridor this morning, but those radar returns have subsided as of the time of writing. Additional, faint radar returns are observed upstream along the I-71 corridor, but models continue to collectively resolve midlevel height rises over the commonwealth today. This should relegate any convective activity in the Bluegrass to a light sprinkle, and measurable/mentionable precipitation chances remain displaced to the north of the CWA later this afternoon/evening. So, the QPF previously resolved over Fleming County was removed with this morning's forecast update. Aside from this, the previous forecast generally remains on track.

UPDATE Issued at 637 AM EDT SAT JUN 6 2026

Temperatures have remained several degrees milder than previously forecast over the northern foothill with some mixing/thicker mid- level cloud cover early this morning, so hourly temperature forecasts were brought into line with observations. Valley fog has also been very limited. Otherwise, forecast seems to be in good shape for the day ahead with mostly to partly sunny skies and widespread highs in the 80s.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Sunday) Issued at 338 AM EDT SAT JUN 6 2026

Another fair and seasonably mild early morning is underway across eastern Kentucky with just some passing high clouds and temperatures ranging from the mid/upper 50s in the cooler valleys to the mid/upper 60s on the thermal belt ridges and exposed open terrain. The latest surface weather map shows an !1020 mb surface high now situated off of the Carolinas, displaced east of a 500 hPa ridge axis along the Atlantic Seaboard. Upstream, a shallow trough is propagating from the Upper Mid-Mississippi Valley and Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes and Northern Ohio Valley. A weak area of low pressure is passing through the Ottawa Valley vicinity out ahead of the trough while a cold front is draped from the surface reflection southwestward across the Upper Great Lakes and into Wisconsin, Iowa and the Central Plains. Also of note is a weak upper level low spinning over Western Texas and eastern New Mexico.

The aforementioned upper level trough will brush north of the Commonwealth today while the ridging is briefly shunted southward. The trough's associated cold front will sag southward into the northern Ohio Valley but will then stall, abandoned as the trough departs into the Northeast CONUS. Convection associated with this boundary is favored to stay fully north and east of the forecast area through tonight as heights rebound over the Commonwealth behind the departing upper level trough. Those heights will continue to rebound on Sunday as a transient pseudo-omega-shaped 500hPa ridge pumps up from the Ohio Valley northward into Ontario while the upper low over the southern Plains opens and ejects northeast to the vicinity of Kansas City, MO by 00z Monday. PWATs will rise throughout the short-term period, first with moisture pooling out ahead of the cold front stagnating to our north today/tonight, then on Sunday with continued moisture advection within deep southwesterly flow along the western flank of the upper level ridging. A weak perturbation within the southwesterly flow may spark isolated to scattered convection on Sunday (mainly afternoon and evening), generally near and north of the Mountain Parkway.

In sensible weather terms, look for a fair and very warm Saturday across eastern Kentucky with temperatures rising into the mid to upper 80s with a modest southwesterly breeze. Partly cloudy skies follow tonight with lows in the lower to middle 60s. It will be partly sunny and warm yet again on Sunday with highs in the mid 80s for most, though it will be more humid. There could also be isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and early evening, mainly near and north of the Mountain Parkway.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 342 AM EDT SAT JUN 6 2026

The period should start with upper level ridging extending from the southeast CONUS sharply northward over the Great Lakes. A weakening upper low (currently over west TX) will be riding up the western side of the ridge while a trough amplifies southeastward on the eastern side. A surface cold front associated with the eastern trough should be near or north of the Ohio River at the start of the period, losing southward momentum as its supporting trough departs. A rather moist air mass should be in place over our area south of the front. With instability waning and ridging overhead, Sunday night will probably be dry, despite the possible proximity of the front.

A modest remnant trough from the western upper low is expected to ripple/ride through the ridge on Monday into Wednesday and result in geopotential height falls over us. At the same time, our low level flow is forecast to increase out of the southwest and provide warm/moist advection as what's left of the front lifts back north. This will probably result in our highest POP of the week as convection (largely diurnal) occurs. Even with the trough passing over, our flow aloft should remain fairly weak and limit storm organization. However, high atmospheric moisture (PW near 2" in the GFS) would support locally heavy rainfall.

The upper trough departs Wednesday night and upper level ridging reestablishes over the lower Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. There is model disagreement as to how strong this renewed ridging will be. If it's modest, it may not be enough to overcome diurnal destabilization and prevent deep convection, especially if a weak cold front can approach from the north. Even if its stronger, the ridge may be to our northwest and allow thunderstorms to develop over us on its periphery. That being the case, a POP will remain in the forecast Thursday and Friday, but with a lower probability compared to Tuesday and Wednesday.

AVIATION

(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon) ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT SAT JUN 6 2026

Efficient diurnal processes are forecast given the ongoing weather pattern, and this corresponds with the development of a cu field across the terminals this afternoon. Scattered spatial coverage of that cu field is observed across the southern two-thirds of the forecast area. Further to the north, increased mid/upper level clouds relegated that development to "few" coverage. Cu should subside towards sunset, as will sporadic afternoon wind gusts between 15 and 20 knots. Additional mid- to high-level clouds linger overnight, but all ceilings will be above VFR thresholds. River valley fog development is expected overnight, but given the antecedent dryness and the lack of mentionable PoPs today, it is not currently forecast to affect the TAF sites. Fog potential looks greatest in the Cumberland River basin, so vsby reductions cannot be entirely ruled out at southern terminals like KSME and KLOZ. Recent probabilistic guidance has backed off the LAMP data's idea that these terminals will experience categorical impacts, so fog potential was not explicitly mentioned in the 18z TAFs. Observational trends will need to be monitored overnight though. An increase in moisture tomorrow morning will lead to greater cloud cover towards the end of the period, but mentionable rain chances hold off until after 18z tomorrow afternoon. As such, VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all TAF sites for the current issuance period.

JKL WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

None.