Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

- Elevated rain chances can be expected over the weekend with a very moist air mass in place and an upper level disturbance. Showers and storms that develop will have the potential to produce high rain rates in a short period of time with nuisance flooding of urban poor drainage areas the main concern.

- An upper level ridge will build in next week to help reduce shower activity to the more typical isolated to scattered during the afternoon.

- Conditions will become even hotter and humid next week with afternoon heat index values reaching between 100 and 105 degrees.

DISCUSSION

(Today through Friday) Issued at 1201 AM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

A very moist and tropical like air mass remains over the forecast area with the latest upper air sounding (06/00z) from KLCH showing a precipitable water value of 2.24 inches which is well over the 90th percentile and at the max moving average.

Saturday is looking rather active and wet by afternoon. The highly anomalous moisture values will be around as low level flow brings moisture up from the northwest Caribbean and the southwest Gulf with upper level winds streaming in equatorial East Pac moisture. PWAT values will basically be at or above 2 inches and roughly between the 90th percentile and daily moving max. Mean layer 100H-50H relative humidity values will be over 80 percent. Warm cloud layer depth still running over 12k feet to show the air mass definitely has a tropical look to it.

Water vapor shows an upper level low over West Texas moving gradually to the northeast. As this system approaches the forecast area, winds will become more southerly allowing for an enhanced sea breeze that will get going by late morning and push inland during the afternoon. The weakness aloft and lift from the sea breeze and other collisions of mesoscale boundary should get widespread shower activity going.

The activity will have the potential for torrential downpours. High rain rates in the 1 to 3 inch per hour range local plausible. Although average area wide rainfall amounts will basically be around 1/2 inch, HREF shows probs of over 2 inches of rain in the 50-80% range and over 3 inches in the 30-60 percent range for the 6 hour period between 1 pm and 7 pm. Obviously if these amounts fall over urban poor drainage areas, some street flooding will be possible and a Marginal (level 1 out of 4) Risk potential or at least a 5 percent chance for excessive rainfall leading to flooding is in place.

On Sunday, deeper moisture will again remain in place during the morning and early afternoon hours, however, the upper level system will begin to lift off to the northeast, so higher pops during the morning into early afternoon look like the times for best shower coverage. Localized torrential downpours again will be the main concern.

The weakness moves away on Monday, with an upper level ridge forming. The highly anomalous moisture values are also expected to decrease and move away from the region. Therefore, rain chances will be closer to climo and mainly isolated to widely scattered during the afternoon with daytime heating and seabreeze induced activity.

However, with the lowering in shower areal coverage, heat will increase with highs up in the lower 90s through the week and apparent temperatures in the afternoon between 100 and 105 degrees.

07/Rua

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 608 AM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

Conditions are borderline MVFR/VFR and will remain there for most of the forecast. Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected today. Conditions near showers will be poor with low visibility and gusty winds.

Outside of convection winds will be from the south around 10 knots.

MARINE

Issued at 1201 AM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

A broad area of high pressure over most of the southeastern US will ridge into the coastal waters through the middle part of next week. This will bring a persistent modest southerly flow along with low to moderate seas. A very moist air mass and a weakness aloft will bring daily chances for showers and thunderstorms over the weekend. Shower activity is expected to decrease next week.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1201 AM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

A moist air mass will remain over the region this weekend and will keep humid conditions in place with afternoon minimum relative humidity values over 60 percent. A weakness aloft will keep high chances for rain, mainly during the afternoon hours, that will bring wetting rains to a majority of the area to keep the fire danger in check. The main issue will be frequent cloud to ground lightning with some of the stronger storms. Rain chances will decrease on Monday into early next week with minimum afternoon relative humidity values ranging between 50 and 60 percent.

LCH WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

LA...None. TX...None. GM...None.