Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

- Strong northerly winds will persist through this morning. Cooler and drier air will remain in place through Monday as these winds begin to ease and become easterly

- Gradual warming is expected Wednesday through the end of the week as winds acquire more southeasterly components

- Humid conditions also return by the mid week with isolated to scattered rain chances expected into the following weekend

DISCUSSION

(Today through Saturday) Issued at 1230 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

A few scattered showers continue to wane off this coast this morning as cool continental air pours southward from the Central Plains. Skies are expected to thin and begin clearing by midday with subsidence aloft drying out the mid levels. Some low level clouds may continue to remain in scattered to broken patches. High temperatures will be notably cooler by 10-15F- topping out in the low 70s. Gale transitioning to Small Craft Advisory conditions will persist across the marine zones through afternoon with winds/seas gradually easing and abating into the overnight hours.

The previous shortwave begins to exit over the New England coast Monday with the following high pressure cell centered across the Ohio valley facilitating moderate ridging off the Gulf Coast. Conditions will remain dry with temperatures beginning to recover into the upper 70s as winds veer easterly. With some fetch cooler waters below the Atchafalaya Delta, skies will retain some cloud cover. The skies begin to thicken on Tuesday as a weak disturbance organizes over northern Texas before moving toward the coast. Highs are expected to be similar as Monday, in the mid 70s. This trough will allow some shower activity across Southeast TX with a little more modest chances across Central LA. Chances for rainfall do increase across far Southwest LA into Wednesday as the coastal trough fetches more southerly moisture advection across the forecast area.

Another shortwave trough will organize across the Pacific Northwest Thursday while lingering effects of the coastal trough allow isolated to scattered chances of rainfall locally. Temperatures, however, will further increase into the low 80s for highs. The pattern with respect to precipitation becomes a little more unsettled through the remainder of the forecast period as this shortwave advances east. Given most deterministic modeling keeps this feature well north, we're not expecting a rapid advancing cold front. Instead, a gradient flow will keep PoPs in the forecast while the surface front slowly shifts toward the ARKLATEX region through Saturday.

Kowalski / 30

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1209 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

Gusty NE winds and scattered to broken high clouds streaming across the region from the west will persist through the afternoon/evening hours. Tonight, winds relax while high clouds linger. Winds begin to increase again by tomorrow morning, becoming gusty and out of the east by the end of the period.

MARINE

Issued at 1230 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

Northerly winds are expected to reach gale criteria for the western marine zones overnight through the late morning hours. As a result, a gale warning remains in effect for the outer Gulf waters west of Intracoastal City for Sunday morning, with a small craft advisory for the remaining Gulf waters and all lakes/bays for this time frame. Conditions will still remain hazardous to small craft into the evening so the small craft advisory will be in affect for all marine zones (excluding lakes and bays) through the early evening hours. Winds remain breezy thereafter but only borderline with SCA criteria considering abating seas.

Winds will turn easterly to southeasterly starting Monday night and diminish to around 10-15 kt, which will likely continue for much of the week while gaining more SSE components. A few showers and thunderstorms may become possible towards the middle of the week as disturbance develops near the south TX coast.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1230 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

Breezy north to northeast winds in the wake of the front will remain gusty- around 20-25kts through the afternoon. Strong winds and much drier air (minRH values in the upper 20s to mid 30s) will bring slightly elevated fire weather concerns for tomorrow afternoon. However, after receiving a good areawide soaking rainfall, most fire concerns should remain in check therefore no fire weather products have been issued during this forecast package. This dry airmass remains in place for Monday, but fire concerns will decrease as winds will become lighter, around 5-10 kt. By Tuesday, the winds begin shift to the southeast, which will increase RH and chances for subsequent scattered showers over the area that help mitigate fire weather concerns through the remainder of the forecast period.

LCH WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

LA...None. TX...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ430- 432-435-436.

Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ450-452- 455-475.

Gale Warning until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ470-472.

Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ470-472.