Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 617 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

- Freezing temperatures early Sunday morning for the southwestern Texas Panhandle and northwestern South Plains.

- Warmer temperatures Sunday with elevated fire weather conditions.

- Chances of light rain on Monday with a return to fire weather conditions by mid-week.

SHORT TERM

(Today and Tonight) Issued at 1026 PM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026

Pleasant conditions will continue through the rest of the weekend. A surface ridge will settle from Oklahoma into North Texas early Sunday morning setting up a chilly morning. Surface winds will veer to the south and lighten also setting up efficient radiational cooling. At least a light freeze is likely across the extreme southwestern Texas Panhandle and northwestern South Plains. Temperatures may drop below 28F in some spots in these areas if winds can become calm enough. Upper level ridging will then shift overhead on Sunday. As this occurs, surface ridging will slide eastward. Surface cyclogenesis will develop in lee of the Rockies in response to an approaching short wave trough from the southwest. Winds will become breezy and stay roughly out of the south through the afternoon leading to temperatures a few degrees warmer on Sunday afternoon.

With the strong cold front from late Friday, low level moisture will be slow to return on Monday. Moisture at the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere will increase with the approach of the trough as we undergo top down moistening starting late Sunday through the day on Monday. Most of the lift from this short wave trough will be displaced to the southeast of the region associated with the entrance region of a ~100kt jet streak. A secondary weaker jet streak will bring additional lift in the afternoon but again concentrated to the south of the region. Although mostly rain showers are expected, weak instability will bring slight chances of thunder with this activity.

LONG TERM

(Monday through next Saturday) Issued at 1026 PM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026

Upper level ridging will again transverse the region on Tuesday bringing temperatures back towards seasonal averages. Persistent southwest flow aloft for much of next week will bring a sloshing dryline but with little to no chances of thunderstorms. Breezy and dry winds on the west side of the dryline will promote a return to fire weather conditions beginning on Wednesday. Guidance does show a potential front sometime late in the week but the predictability is too low at this time for any confidence in the forecast.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 617 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF cycle. Expect southerly winds to increase to around 10-15KTs by the afternoon, while high clouds begin to increase in coverage at all terminals by the evening.

LUB WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for TXZ021>023- 027>029.