Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1140 AM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

- Showers and thunderstorms with locally heavy rain ending this evening.

- Hotter and mostly dry next week.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Sunday) Issued at 1140 AM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

A mid-level low located near Lake Alan Henry at 11 AM is forecast to scoot into northwest Oklahoma tonight ahead of upper ridging and much warmer and drier conditions for Sunday. Until then, we'll be contending with a narrow band of mostly light rain along a deformation axis NW of the low, and a more convectively unstable environment downstream of the low in the Rolling Plains. The latter area is of greater concern for localized flash flooding this afternoon due to greater instability (SBCAPE nearing 1500 J/kg) and weak steering flow. Precip associated with the deformation zone is forecast to dwindle from S-N as the low treks farther north. Stronger NW flow on the backside of the departing low later today could be enough to sustain storms moving SE from the Sangre de Cristos. Chose to expand 20 PoPs this evening generally west of I27 for this activity as it will be moving into a theta-e axis before low-level instability shuts off toward midnight. Any lingering convection off the Caprock should also end toward midnight or shortly thereafter as the upper trough axis clears to the east. Sunday sees much warmer thicknesses and sunshine return ahead of a ridge axis atop New Mexico. Even with warmer temps aloft, various soundings suggest convective temps are within reach by late day within this otherwise unfavorable pattern for storms. If storms do develop, coverage appears too sparse for any precip mention at this time.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 1140 AM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

Ridging shifts squarely overhead on Monday complete with some of the hottest temps of the week (widespread highs near 100) before a shortwave trough in SW flow flattens the ridge on Tuesday and cools highs a handful of degrees. Of some interest to our counties bordering the NM state line is a growing chance of late-day storms from a favorable upslope regime in eastern NM underneath a swift subtropical jet. Flatter mid/upper flow on Wednesday should introduce a dryline to our area which has some potential to convect with strong heating, although organized severe potential looks slim owing to weak flow throughout much of the column. Global models diverge by late week on position of a trough in the northern plains and more importantly vort lobes rotating into the trough. This casts doubt on protracted heat and generally dry conditions for Thursday and Friday as the ECMWF and its ensembles are more bullish with a cold front and precip by this time.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1140 AM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

VFR and light winds outside of heavier SHRA or TS. Light rain will end early this afternoon at LBB, and a couple hours later at PVW. CDS stands the greatest chance for some TS this afternoon and evening. A stray SHRA or TS may graze LBB and PVW late this evening as storms exit NM before falling apart toward midnight.

LUB WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

None.