Letterhead and timestamp
000 FXUS64 KLZK 061803 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 103 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026...New AVIATION...KEY MESSAGES
Issued at 127 AM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026
-Chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms increasing today and especially for Sunday
-Chances for rainfall start decreasing early next week...with mainly dry conditions by the middle/latter half of next week
-Overall threat for organized severe weather low through the period...but some isolated strong to severe weather may be seen
-Oppressive heat may settle across the region next week...with heat headlines becoming possible
DISCUSSION
Issued at 127 AM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026
An upper low over SW TX early this morning will gradually lift NNE into KS by this evening. SW flow aloft will increase over the state through this same timeframe...with persistent SRLY SFC flow continuing. Weak upper disturbances will lift NE over portions of AR in the SW flow aloft...with some more coverage of convection possible than seen in previous days as a result. Best POPs will remain over WRN sections...but should see chances for SHRA/TSRA shift further east than in recent days.
The unsettled pattern will continue through Sun as SW flow aloft continues...and weak upper waves pass overhead. Chances for convection will increase further...and shift further east as well. By early next week...flow aloft will become more WRLY as the upper low becomes a more open wave...and moves east over NRN AR. POPs will shift north in closer proximity to the upper wave...with best POPs over NRN AR on Mon.
By the middle of next week...expect the chances for precip to decrease as upper flow become less significant over the region. Even so...enough weakness in the upper flow may exist to see some isolated afternoon convection during the middle of next week.
The overall threat for seeing any organized SVR Wx and widespread heavy rainfall through the period remains low due to no major systems expected to pass through the region. However...some isolated strong/SVR convection may be seen each day into Mon...along with the potential for locally heavy rainfall that may result in isolated flash flooding.
By the middle to latter half of next week...upper riding will intensify over the region. Chances for precip will decrease further...and temps will gradually rise into the upper 80s to mid 90s for highs. Humidity levels will remain high...which should result in some near critical heat index levels. Some spots may see hot/humid conditions as early as Mon/Tue. However...many areas may see oppressive heat by mid-week...continuing through the rest of next week. If this trend looks to come to fruition as currently forecast...heat headlines may be needed sometime next week as a result of oppressively hot conditions.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1251 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026
Areas of -SHRA/-TSRA across parts of western, north, and northwest Arkansas will continue to push north/northeast through the remainder of the morning into the afternoon hours. Hi-res CAMs shows additional development around mid afternoon with widely isolated to scattered SHRA/TSRA and again Sunday morning across the state. Mainly VFR conditions through this evening, then HREF and BUFKIT soundings again bring ceilings down to MVFR/IFR overnight into Sunday morning. Ceilings at all terminals will lift to MVFR/VFR near the end of the forecast period. Light S/SE winds will prevail throughout the forecast period.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
| Temperatures | Chance of Precipitation | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Location | Tonight | Tomorrow | Tomorrow night | Next day | Tonight | Tomorrow | Tomorrow night | Next day |
| Batesville AR | 70 ℉ | 84 ℉ | 71 ℉ | 88 ℉ | 20% | 80% | 60% | 40% |
| Camden AR | 71 ℉ | 86 ℉ | 72 ℉ | 92 ℉ | 70% | 70% | 20% | 10% |
| Harrison AR | 68 ℉ | 80 ℉ | 70 ℉ | 85 ℉ | 40% | 80% | 70% | 40% |
| Hot Springs AR | 72 ℉ | 83 ℉ | 73 ℉ | 90 ℉ | 80% | 80% | 50% | 10% |
| Little Rock AR | 71 ℉ | 84 ℉ | 72 ℉ | 89 ℉ | 50% | 90% | 50% | 10% |
| Monticello AR | 73 ℉ | 86 ℉ | 74 ℉ | 91 ℉ | 40% | 70% | 30% | 20% |
| Mount Ida AR | 71 ℉ | 82 ℉ | 73 ℉ | 88 ℉ | 80% | 80% | 60% | 10% |
| Mountain Home AR | 68 ℉ | 81 ℉ | 69 ℉ | 85 ℉ | 40% | 80% | 70% | 50% |
| Newport AR | 72 ℉ | 86 ℉ | 73 ℉ | 89 ℉ | 10% | 80% | 60% | 40% |
| Pine Bluff AR | 72 ℉ | 86 ℉ | 73 ℉ | 90 ℉ | 30% | 80% | 40% | 10% |
| Russellville AR | 72 ℉ | 84 ℉ | 73 ℉ | 89 ℉ | 70% | 80% | 70% | 10% |
| Searcy AR | 70 ℉ | 85 ℉ | 71 ℉ | 89 ℉ | 20% | 90% | 60% | 30% |
| Stuttgart AR | 73 ℉ | 86 ℉ | 74 ℉ | 90 ℉ | 20% | 80% | 50% | 20% |
LZK WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES
None.
DISCUSSION...62 AVIATION...76