Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1223 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain possible through this afternoon, primarily over the Permian Basin into the Lower Trans Pecos. Locally heavy rainfall could result in flash flooding of low-lying and urban areas. A storm or two may become strong to severe across the eastern Permian Basin capable of producing quarter size hail and gusty winds.

- A much warmer and drier weather pattern settles over the region on Sunday continuing into next week.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Sunday afternoon) Issued at 256 AM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

Current satellite imagery shows an upper low over portions of west Texas. This has brought quite a bit of rainfall for some locations especially over the Trans Pecos, southeast New Mexico, and eastern/northeastern Permian Basin. Radar imagery shows rain showers diminishing and moving east of the region. Today, the aforementioned upper low slowly lifts to the northeast into the TX Panhandle. At the surface, guidance has the dryline sharpening up near the TX/NM border providing abundant moisture for additional showers and storms during the afternoon. The highest chance (20-40%) of rain/storms to occur will be over the eastern half of the Permian Basin. Moderately unstable instability (1500-2500 J/kg), sufficient deep-layer shear, and modest lapse rates will support an isolated wind and hail threat with the strongest storms. Landspouts may also develop with some of these storms as forecast soundings depict high 3CAPE and just enough 0-3km storm- relative helicity along with the support of any outflow boundaries. High Precipitable Water (PWAT) values remain prevalent, bringing a heavy rainfall threat as well. Storms are expected to remain mainly scattered to isolated in coverage, therefore, the flash flooding threat is anticipated to not be as extensive as it has been in previous days. High temperatures are forecast to range from the 80s to low 90s for most locations.

Tonight, the upper low shifts into the Central Plains, while upper- level ridging builds in from the west. This feature will provide much drier and warmer conditions Sunday. As a result, highs are expected in the 90s to low 100s for most areas. The warmer and drier weather pattern continues heading into next week. See the long-term discussion for details.

Lamberson

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 256 AM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

Warmer and drier conditions persist early next week. This is thanks to an upper-level ridge builds over portions of west Texas and southeast New Mexico. High temperatures shoot back into in the mid 90s to lower 100s for most locations throughout next week. These temperatures are typical for early June. Lows each night remain similar ranging from the 60s to mid 70s regionwide. The next notable rain/storm chances (20-40%) return on Wednesday across the Davis Mountains. This is thanks to an upper-level storm system developing across the western CONUS. Cluster analysis is in agreement with this upper-level system approaching from the west by Wednesday through Friday timeframe which may bring further rain/storm chances to some parts of the region. Various solutions amongst model guidance remains prevalent late next week on the positioning, strength, and track of the system. Therefore, the extent of these chances remain unclear at this time.

Lamberson

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1223 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

MVFR ceilings that briefly developed over KMAF late this morning have scattered as of 1715Z. VFR conditions are expected to prevail over the local terminals through Sunday morning. Scattered SHRA and TSRA may develop again this afternoon over the eastern Permian Basin into the Lower Trans Pecos, but confidence was too low to include mention at KMAF and KFST. Winds generally remain light through the period, but may increase to 10-15 knots from the south at KFST by this evening and at KMAF by early Sunday morning.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

MAF WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.