Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 101 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

- More widespread showers and thunderstorms return to the forecast starting Sunday, lasting through at least Tuesday.

- By the middle of next week, it will become very hot and humid, with high temperatures in the 90s and heat index values climbing into the triple digits.

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Friday) Issued at 101 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

A weak shortwave trough is pushing over from the ArkLaTex as of noon Saturday, bringing an influx of Gulf moisture and resultant showers to the Mid-South. KNQA radar is picking up on the outermost edge of these showers, which according to the 12Z suite of CAMs, will most likely skirt the western edge of our CWA throughout the day. The convective coverage for the 7PM Sat - 7AM Sun time frame also continues to decrease in short term models, likely due to the presence of weak ridging aloft. With the later trend of precip, the most likely arrival time for the first "wave" of showers and thunderstorms to kick off this wet pattern will be right after sunrise Sunday. Convective mode for tomorrow/Sunday looks very isolated and single cellular, much like a summertime pattern. These will also be diurnally enhanced by peak heating in the afternoon, leading to very localized threats of heavy rainfall and/or strong downdrafts in particularly strong storms.

This wet period will continue into the work week with daily PoPs above 50% Monday and Tuesday. Forecast surface analyses depict a very messy and unsettled pattern both of these days, with no tangible grasp on frontal positioning for the Mid-South. Up to the north over the Great Lakes region, there is a pretty well- defined surface low churning about the OH River Valley these two days. With a broad moisture axis overrunning the Mid-South along southerly flow and little to no synoptic forcing, expect a persistence forecast of afternoon convection at least through Wednesday morning. Again, many areas will not see rain at all due to the isolated nature of these storms. But those that do will have a localized risk of heavy rain and gusty winds.

By Wednesday, things start to dry out and heat up as a midlevel ridge builds in over the eastern CONUS. Temperatures in the mid to latter half of the work week are in the low to mid 90s - about 5 degrees above normal for most places. Right on cue with meteorological summer, we'll be flirting with Heat Advisory criteria Tuesday (lower temps, higher humidity) and Wednesday- Friday (higher temps, lower humidity). We're still carrying about 20-30% PoPs each day, but moisture content is low enough to support sporadic convective coverage, at best.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 101 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

VFR conds will prevail through this evening with generally south winds at 6-10 kts. As an upper low starts to pivot through the Southern Plains moisture will be on the increase across the Mid- South. Low clouds will arrive later tonight with scattered SHRAs by morning. As instability increases throughout the day expect coverage to increase and TSRAs to develop. Winds will generally be southerly at 6-10 kts.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 101 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

Fire weather concerns will remain low through the forecast period. Higher humidity returning this weekend and persisting throughout next week will keep fine fuels moist. Additionally, wetting rain is expected across much of the area on Sunday and Monday, further mitigating fire risk. Even as high heat returns mid-week, elevated humidity levels will prevent significant fire weather concerns.

MEG WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.