Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1221 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

- Elevated fire danger is anticipated across the majority of the Mid-South on Tuesday due to a combination of strong winds, low humidity, dry vegetation, and temperatures in the 80s.

- The remainder of the workweek will feature warm and dry conditions with highs in the low to mid 80s.

- A Slight Risk (2/5) of severe thunderstorms is expected Friday, with a warm and increasingly humid, unsettled pattern continuing through next weekend.

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Saturday) Issued at 1221 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

Broad surface high pressure encompasses the majority of the interior CONUS. A cold front was analyzed over the eastern seaboard with another front dropping down across the Northern Plains. Temperatures are running about 3 to 5 degrees cooler than 24 hours ago, but humidity is markedly lower. High temperatures will only top out in the upper 60s to lower 70s today, due to the origin of the continental polar air mass.

Dry conditions and above normal temperatures will return this week as both surface and upper level high pressure remains in place through late week. Winds will increase on Tuesday in response to a tightening pressure gradient as a surface low tracks across the Upper Mississippi Valley. The combination of elevated winds, temperatures in the 80s, low relative humidity, and dry vegetation will result in elevated fire danger across the majority of the Mid-South. There is medium to high confidence that at least a Fire Danger Statement will be needed.

The weather pattern will change late in the week as a deepening trough ejects out of the PAC NW on Thursday. A cold front will develop over the Plains and move into the Lower Mississippi Valley on Friday. Gulf moisture will surge ahead of the front early Friday and yield low to moderate amounts of instability across the Mid-South. LREF guidance suggests that there is a 30 to 50% chance of joint probabilities of SBCAPE > 500 J/kg, surface CIN < -25 J/kg, and 0-500mb Bulk Wind Shear > 30 knots setting up along and west of the Mississippi River. Operational models are less excited about strong winds aloft, suggesting a much lower threat of organized convection. Nonetheless, there is enough consistency between model runs for SPC to include the majority of the Mid-South in a Slight Risk (2/5) of severe thunderstorms. A warm and increasingly humid air mass will remain over the Mid-South through at least next weekend, suggesting a wet and unsettled pattern will continue.

AC3

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1221 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

No major aviation impacts this period as VFR conditions prevail. Winds will become more southerly this evening as high pressure slides east.

ANS

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1221 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

Fire weather concerns will be on the rise through Tuesday as minimum relative humidity values drop to 25-30% each day. Recent wetting rains will likely negate the need for a Rangeland Fire Danger Statement through Monday. However, increasing 20ft winds and dead fuel moisture near 10 percent will likely necessitate a need for fire weather products on Tuesday. Increased dewpoints return Wednesday through the end of the week, decreasing fire weather concerns.

MEG WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.