Area Forecast Discussion

Updated AVIATION Discussion

AVIATION...06/18Z TAFS

VFR conditions will prevail for all areas through at least this evening, though terrain obscurations will be common along/west of the Cascades and along/north of the Siskiyous. Isolated showers focused along the coast and into the Umpqua Basin will persist through the afternoon, and gusty west-northwest winds are expected across the region this afternoon into the evening.

VFR conditions should prevail overnight, but stratus will likely linger along the coast and in the Umpqua Basin where low end VFR and possibly MVFR ceilings are expected into Sunday morning. There could be some scattered stratus south of the Rogue-Umpqua Divide, but VFR ceilings are expected.

PREV DISCUSSION

/Issued 431 AM PDT Sat Jun 6 2026/

DISCUSSION...

Key Points:

* Light showers in Douglas and Coos counties are possible today. Temperatures will be cooler than normal.

* Cooler temperatures tonight will lead to a frost and freeze risk, especially east of the Cascades. Frost Advisory and Freeze Warning products have been made.

* After an afternoon with near normal temperatures, lows Sunday night will be warmer and rain chances return early Monday. This will continue moving east, and all areas have a chance for rain by Monday evening.

Satellite shows that most areas have lower clouds while cirrus moves east of the Cascades as an upper low arrives today. This upper low is forecast to move into Washington and northern Oregon this morning. From central Coos and Douglas counties and north, there is a 10-25% chance for a shower starting at 5 AM. As the day goes on, the upper low will push east, and rain chances will decrease in the early afternoon.

In terms of cloudiness, partly/mostly cloudy skies will be focused today in Coos and Douglas counties while clearer skies prevail elsewhere. Although not many locations will see the rain, everywhere will have a dip in temperatures to near 5-10 degrees below normal. This means mid-/upper 50s at the coast, mid-60s/low 70s west of the Cascades, and low/mid-60s east.

Northerly winds combined with clearer skies tonight will bring cooler temperatures. Portions of the Illinois Valley have a 20-30% probability for temperatures to reach frost territory. However, east side is where the threat is largest. There is a 70-80% probability for most of Klamath and Lake counties to cool to 32 degrees or cooler into Sunday morning. With that, a Freeze Warning is in effect for those areas from 2 AM-9 AM Sunday. Other areas east of the Cascades, including eastern Siskiyou County and Modoc County, are under a Frost Advisory for the same time frame. Please see NPWMFR for more details and take proper precautions to protect your plants from these colder temperatures.

Higher pressure makes a short return Sunday afternoon and will bring temperatures to near normal, mostly in the upper 60s to 70s. Sunday night will be a warmer night with 40s/low 50s west and mid-/upper 30s east. As the next front arrives at the coast Monday, rain chances return. Through the start of the day rainfall will mostly impact locations west of the Cascades until the late afternoon when it spreads farther east. The coast and western Josephine and Siskiyou counties will see the most rainfall Monday afternoon before also seeing favorable rainfall in the Cascades Monday evening. - Hermansen

LONG TERM...Once this low passes through, we'll see troughing in the northern Rockies with deeper north west flow off the Pacific for the Pacific Northwest. This will keep things on the cooler side with some showers developing Tuesday evening as another short wave moves through the area. A thermal trough will likely set up behind this very deep trough around Thursday or Friday of next week and push temperatures higher. Heading towards next weekend, 500 mb heights begin to build and move into the 97.5th percentile by Saturday night. Therefore, we'll likely be pushing 100 here in Medford. The NBM only has a 35% chance of surpassing triple digits at KMFR.

MARINE...Updated 430 AM PDT Saturday, June 6, 2026...North winds and seas will increase this afternoon into Sunday morning, especially south of Gold Beach. Steep seas will also be found in the outer waters towards Florence. South winds will accompany a front Sunday night into Monday, along with a chance of rain. Then, light to moderate north winds return Tuesday and Wednesday. A thermal trough will likely bring marine hazards next week as stronger north winds and steep to very steep seas build Thursday into next weekend.

MFR WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

OR...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM PDT Sunday for ORZ029>031.

Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 9 AM PDT Sunday for ORZ029>031.

CA...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM PDT Sunday for CAZ082>085.

Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 9 AM PDT Sunday for CAZ084.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 5 AM PDT Sunday for PZZ370-376.