Area Forecast Discussion

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Marine winds slightly increased this afternoon and evening.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Hot and dry conditions expected through the weekend.

2) Increased Fire Danger risk across the area this weekend.

3) Low-end thunderstorm risk Sunday evening into Monday afternoon

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...A downsloping low-level flow beneath ridging aloft will combine with notably warm low-level thicknesses to support hot, above normal temperatures this weekend areawide. Despite periods of high clouds overspreading the area, highs should manage to reach the mid-90s inland, with 80s along the coast. This is around 5 degrees above normal for early June. While it will be hot, mixing of a dry airmass should help keep dewpoints and humidity levels down, making it more of a "dryish" heat. Highs may flirt with records, especially on Sunday, depending on what, if any, impact high cloudcover has.

KEY MESSAGE 2...The combination of hot temperatures, seasonally low relative humidities, and ongoing drought conditions is expected to support an increased fire danger across all of ENC this weekend. Of note, rainfall is running about 10-25 percent of normal over the past week across much of ENC. This combined with the hot and dry conditions is leading to dry fine fuels, and less impact from live fuels. These conditions are noteworthy for this time of year, and is the reason for elevated fire concerns. In collaboration with the NCFS, an Increased Fire Danger Statement is in effect for today, with a continuation expected into Sunday.

KEY MESSAGE 3...An upper level shortwave will traverse the Great Lakes and New England over the next 48 hours. This will push a cold front south through the Mid-Atlantic on Sunday, reaching northeast NC by Sunday night. The front is then forecast to cross ENC during the day Monday. On Sunday, the greatest chance of thunderstorms is expected to reside to our north where forcing along the front will coincide with reduced inhibition and moderate instability. By Sunday evening, it's expected that any convection to the north in Virginia will be moving southeast into a stabilizing airmass across NE NC. Despite increasing inhibition, some elevated/weak thunderstorms may survive into the Albemarle Sound vicinity after sunset. On Monday, the front is expected to be through most of ENC by the time peak heating rolls around, and this is expected to keep the convective risk more muted. If the front were to slow down at all, then the chance of thunderstorms would likely increase. However, for now the most likely scenario is that scattered, weak thunderstorms will develop across the far southwestern counties of ENC, with dry conditions elsewhere. Weak shear and modest instability should keep the risk of severe thunderstorms low on Monday.

AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the entirety of the 12z TAF cycle. A dry and stable airmass is expected to limit cumulus development and keep the TSRA risk at 0%. Light and variable winds early this morning will become southwest to west-southwest by mid-morning. The afternoon seabreeze will then move through with a southwest to south wind shift and a period of gusty winds to 20kt.

Outlook: A cold front is forecast to move through ENC on Monday with a northeasterly wind shift and the potential for 3-4k ft CIGs. A TSRA risk may accompany this front as well, but mainly for areas in the vicinity of KOAJ.

MARINE

This weekend will feature a very typical summertime pattern with elevated winds and seas during the peak thermal gradient each afternoon and evening. A Small Craft Advisory was considered for today for a small area surrounding the Pamlico Sound and the nearby coastal waters. However, it appears to be more marginal and not all that atypical for this time of year. The gradient may be enhanced on Sunday as a cold front approaches from the north. This may give a slight boost to the winds then, leading to an expanded area of 25kt winds.

Outlook: A cold front will move through area waters on Monday with a northeasterly wind shift. While a thunderstorm risk may accompany this front, the risk looks low, and mainly confined to the coastal and offshore waters south of Cape Lookout, as well as inland waterways around the Crystal Coast (New River, Bogue Sound, White Oak River, etc.). A typical summertime pattern returns by the middle of next week.

MHX WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

NC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ196-204- 205. MARINE...None.