Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 142 PM EDT Sat Jun 6 2026

- Chances for showers and thunderstorms are expected each day Sunday through the coming work week especially in the afternoon/evening hours.

- Lots of moisture in the atmosphere means we could see periods of heavy rainfall and eventually flooding this week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 142 PM EDT Sat Jun 6 2026

Currently another day of calm weather as we remain under the ridge sitting over the southeastern United States. But winds have turned more southerly so our dew points and temperatures are ticking up as a low/trough tries to move north through the plains states into the midwest. This system will try and make inroads into the ridge that's been over the southeastern US, but looks to lose out and remain over the Ohio Valley as we head into next week.

Rain chances do increase tomorrow and pretty much through the rest of the upcoming week as we get into a more hot and humid pattern. Generally near or above normal temperatures and dew points in the upper 60's to low 70's will be in play for most of the upcoming week. There will be a few disturbances expected to move through and provide times of enhanced coverage, but even without that the very warm temperatures means we should expect to see the return of diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms. Much of next week looks to see an extremely saturated atmosphere with PWAT values hovering around the 2 inch mark until late in the week. This means that any showers and storms that develop will be very effective rain-makers. The profile soundings show tall, skinny CAPE which hints at efficient rain production, and would also tend to limit the severe threat a bit (although not completely eliminate it). There is no major strong synoptic forcing for longer range models to try and depict, so it's hard to pinpoint where the highest risk for flooding may be next week. As the week continues on and we see some places get multiple rounds of moderate to heavy storms expect to see the threat for flash flooding increase, but confidence on timing and location at this time is very low until we see where early week storms and rainfall end up occurring.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 142 PM EDT Sat Jun 6 2026

VFR conditions, expected for the next 24 hours. Will start to see some rain trying to creep in around KCHA in the last couple of hours of this TAF cycle, and eventually will need to introduce rain chances at all sites for tomorrow.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

MRX WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE.