Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 124 PM EDT Sun Apr 19 2026

- Drier and cooler conditions are expected today into early next week.

- A warming trend will continue through much of the week with rain chances returning Friday into Saturday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 301 AM EDT Sun Apr 19 2026

Currently, a trough is approaching from the west with a cold front moving through the region. With this cold front, showers and embedded storms are gradually exiting to our east with high pressure expanding from the southwest. This will increase northerly to northwesterly winds with cooler temperatures this morning and into the day. Significantly drier conditions are expected through the day with RH values dropping well into the 20s area-wide. Tonight, high pressure will become set up almost directly over the region, leading to stronger subsidence, lighter winds, and cooler temperatures. Some places in the northeast will drop into the 30s with patchy frost possible. A similar pattern will continue on Monday, keeping seasonally cool and dry conditions in place. Stronger subsidence will allow for a further drop in temperatures Monday night with frost more likely, especially in northeast Tennessee and southwest Virginia. By Tuesday, a warming trend will continue with height rises as ridging approaches from the west. Notably dry conditions will remain in place.

Wednesday and Thursday, ridging will move into the region from the west with high pressure keeping the region dry. Another trough will approach from the west late in the week and into the weekend. There is still uncertainty as to how this will evolve, but rain chances will return at a minimum.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 124 PM EDT Sun Apr 19 2026

High clouds are slow to move out this afternoon. Northwesterly winds will remain slightly gusty, up to 20 knots, through early evening. Clearing skies this evening. Winds will be lighter tomorrow.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

MRX WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE.