Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 148 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

- Several rounds of showers and storms through midday Sunday with heavy rainfall and flooding. Some storms may be capable of producing damaging winds and large hail.

- Near to above normal temperatures heading into next week with a potential for triple digit heat.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 148 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

A few showers and storms continue this afternoon across portions Oklahoma with an MCV across central Oklahoma. Additional showers and storms continue to advect northward across eastern Oklahoma with a plume of 700mb moisture ahead of the upper low. Some areas may experience a brief lull in activity during the afternoon hours before the upper low brings increasing chances for showers and storms this afternoon into the overnight. As the upper low continues to eject northeast overnight tonight, multiple rounds of storms may continue to push west to east across Oklahoma and north Texas.

The main hazard going into tonight will be additional rounds of heavy rainfall, especially over areas that already received several inches overnight. The area with the greatest rainfall as of this morning has been across western north Texas and into southwest Oklahoma with anywhere from 2-4" with localized higher amounts up to 4-7 inches. The Odell WTM site reported 7.19 inches of rainfall in the last 24 hours and the Grandfield OK Mesonet reported 5.87 inches of rainfall in the last 24 hours. PWATs are generally above 1.5 inches, but several models are hinting at up to 2 inch values along and near the Red River, including portions extending into north Texas and southern Oklahoma. Two inch values are above the daily max for climatology this time of year and with 1.5 inch PWATs being above the 90th percentile across most of the forecast area, expect heavy rainfall with high rainfall rates expected with storms that develop later today and overnight.

Despite this morning's showers and storms, the lull and break in clouds is helping to warm temperatures up with an uncapped environment. MLCAPE values will generally be around 1500-2000 J/kg with the highest instability focused in and around western north Texas and into southern and central Oklahoma. With the presence of the upper low and slightly higher winds aloft (~30 knots), there will be the presence of a bit more shear today than previous days which may help to sustain stronger updrafts. Thus, storms this afternoon will be capable of producing damaging wind gusts up to at least 70 mph likely due to downbursts and large hail up to at least ping pong size. Storm interaction with any surface vorticity near a surface low or MCV that develops this afternoon and tonight could give way to a storm or two possessing low-level rotation and the potential for a tornado or two. This threat remains very low, but nonzero.

SHORT TERM

(Sunday through Monday night) Issued at 148 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

Storms will linger Sunday morning, but the severe threat should lower with mostly winds and flooding as the primary hazards. The upper low will be pivot over the Central Plains and continue to push the showers and storms eastward across central into eastern Oklahoma with most of the precipitation chances east of the area by midday. In the wake of the upper low will be brief northwest flow aloft Sunday afternoon/evening with a surface trough over the Texas Panhandle. Diurnal driven storms may be possible, but the probability remains low at this time. If a storm or two were to develop and push east southeast into Oklahoma, gusty winds and small hail would be the primary hazards.

By Monday, the upper level pattern will shift towards a ridge building in over the Southern Plains and the trend towards dry and hot conditions. Temperatures will likely warm to above normal by Monday with widespread 90s and a few localized areas breaching triple digit heat. Thanks to lingering low-level moisture and humidity, feels like temperatures are likely to rise above 100 degrees. Areas across central Oklahoma may approach Heat Advisory criteria with heat indexes near or above 105 degrees.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Friday) Issued at 133 AM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

There is now a signal that this ridging over the southern Plains will weaken or shift eastward as a longwave trough develops across the western United States by mid-week. Although we still remain in a warm pattern with southwesterly flow aloft, it may not be quite as hot late in the week as anticipated earlier. The longwave trough does weaken as it moves toward the Plains (primarily the northern Plains) and it is unclear how far south any forcing will be as this trough moves east, but there is at least a low potential for showers/storms with this, primarily Thursday night.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1222 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

Conditions across our terminals will vary from VFR to MVFR at least through 00Z due to the low cloud base alternating from scattered to broken as well as rising and lowering. Will see storm activity increase again after 00Z as an upper low tracks south to north over our area. TSRA probabilities are high enough for TEMPO groups by 20-21Z for terminals KSPS & KLAW then after 00Z for our remaining terminals. Terminals conditions may further deteriorate to an IFR category after 04Z due to lowering ceilings and periods of reduced visibilities in rain associated with convection overhead. Surface winds will be variable and becoming gusty from storm activity as well.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

OUN WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

OK...Flood Watch through Sunday afternoon for OKZ011>013-015>048- 050>052.

TX...Flood Watch through Sunday afternoon for TXZ083>090.