Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1100 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

- Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions are possible across parts of northwest and western Oklahoma into next week.

- Dry and cooler weather this weekend. Warming but remaining mainly dry into the middle of next week.

- Storm chances and potential for severe weather return by Thursday for at least portions of the area.

NEAR TERM

(Through Sunday) Issued at 142 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

A dry return flow pattern is expected today as the surface high moves to the east. Much drier air is expected across the entire area, especially the western third of the area where RH values are likely to get down into the teens by the afternoon. Across northwestern Oklahoma, fuels are still dry and winds are expected to breezy this afternoon. That being said, there will be elevated to near critical fire weather conditions that materialize this afternoon across these areas. A Red Flag Warning will be in effect from noon to 8 pm this evening for far northwestern Oklahoma. Given the return to southwesterly winds, afternoon highs will generally be 5-10 degrees warmer than Saturday's highs.

Bunker

SHORT TERM

(Sunday night through Tuesday night) Issued at 142 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

A weak wave will move across the Texas Panhandle Monday evening, which will provide just enough lift for showers and thunderstorms Monday night into Tuesday morning. No severe weather is expected with this activity.

Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible across northwestern Oklahoma on Monday, with a lull in fire weather activity on Tuesday.

Increased cloud cover on Monday and Tuesday will limit the warming trend. Temperatures will be in the 70s Monday, and in the 60s to low 80s Tuesday.

Bunker

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Saturday) Issued at 142 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

A mid-level ridge moves out of the area Wednesday with our next potential system moving in by Thursday. A dryline is expected to mix eastward across western Oklahoma Thursday, with near critical fire weather concerns behind the dryline, and storm chances to the east of the dryline. Strong to severe storms are possible Thursday afternoon and into the evening hours across portions of northern, central, and southwestern Oklahoma.

A cold front is expected to make its way through the area late Thursday into Friday, bringing high temperatures down back into the 70s through the weekend.

Bunker

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1100 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

VFR conditions prevail with gusty southwest winds backing this evening with diminishing speeds overnight. Gusty southerly winds return on Monday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

OUN WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

OK...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ004-005-009- 010-014.

TX...None.