Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

- Daily showers and thunderstorms continue each day into next week, mostly over the mountains.

- Hot and dry conditions increase fire weather concerns late this weekend into early next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 1221 AM MDT Sat Jun 6 2026

Hot and dry afternoons continue for most of the area this weekend. CAMs are struggling to resolve the nature of any isolated showers/thunderstorms. That said, soundings show continued inverted V profiles with 1000-1300j/kg of DCAPE. The heat and this atmospheric make up shows that storms will most likely continue to form over the mountainous areas with a few breaking off and traveling over the plains. Little, if any, wetting rain is expected with these storms. Gusty downburst/outflow winds and lightning are the main hazards for these storms.

Elsewhere, expect continued hot weather today between ~85-95F. Today's winds will be forced by a mix of terrain forced (upslope/upvalley) heating interacting with any chaotic winds from decaying storms. Sunday shows more organized westerly winds for the mountains and southerly flow for the plains. Sunday's temps. will be slightly hotter for the entire forecast area.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 1221 AM MDT Sat Jun 6 2026

Entering next week, global models seem to have a solid agreement on the synoptic pattern through about Wednesday. An incoming trough to the PacNW and a ridge near the Gulf to the SE will strengthen SW 500mb flow over the area. This SW flow is expected down at 700mb, or mtn-top height, as well. Expect continued warming at the surface as a result of these light downslope winds if they materialize. Probabilistic data shows a 60% chance of temps. over 90F for Colorado Springs and 50% chance of temps. over 100F for Pueblo by Wednesday. The westerly will also be quite dry through the early week as dew points drop to 30-40F, according to global models.

Fire weather will be the main concern for this coming work week, yet dangers also exist for those sensitive to heat as we enter multiple days of quite hot daytime temperatures.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1126 AM MDT Sat Jun 6 2026

VFR conditions are generally expected at KALS, KCOS, and KPUB through 24 hours. Winds will mostly stay diurnally driven, though some isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon into early evening. While chances for precipitation at the terminals are low, gusty, erratic outflow winds may set in for a few hours, with higher confidence at KCOS and KALS. Another round of showers will be possible after 02Z or so for KCOS and KPUB, though with a lower chance for thunder and overall shorter-lived.

PUB WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for COZ222-229.