Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

- Daily showers and thunderstorms continue each day into next week, mostly over the mountains.

- Hot and dry conditions increase fire weather concerns late this weekend into early next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 1236 PM MDT Sat Jun 6 2026

Dry and warm trend continues today, though some of the models have increased shower/thunderstorm coverage and intensity for mid-late afternoon. Most activity will remain over the higher terrain, but where things get interesting is portions of the I-25 corridor, including El Paso County. Some of the high-res guidance suggests pretty breezy southeast winds, leading to some better upslope, and anywhere from 300-800 J/kg of CAPE by mid-afternoon. All this to say, while storm coverage will still be a bit spotty, there may be a few more cells than earlier models suggested, possibly carrying that scattered coverage just a few miles east, and some of the storms that fire along the Palmer Divide and Raton Mesa may be a bit stronger. Severe chance is still near zero for the day, so the main impact concerns with thunderstorms will be gusty outflow winds, probably to 50 mph or so, lightning, and spotty rainfall. Tonight still looks mild, especially over the plains with lows in the 50s to near-60, while the valleys cool into the 40s.

Temperatures continue to warm tomorrow, with highs mostly in the 90s over the plains, though a few areas closer to the border will likely break 100F. Showers will be few and far between, with much drier air setting in across the region, though an isolated shower or two may pop during the afternoon over the higher terrain. Gusty west winds will set in over the higher terrain as well, leading to critical fire weather conditions for portions of the area. A good portion of the fuels are still listed as green, so only fire weather highlights in effect are over Fremont and eastern Huerfano Counties.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 1236 PM MDT Sat Jun 6 2026

Long-term guidance is in decent agreement through at least the first half of next week. Upper ridging will remain in place to our southeast while a broad trough will dig in over the western states. Over Colorado, southwest winds will increase in strength, mixing down to the mid-levels and giving us some stronger surface flow along with more dry air. Temperatures will continue to be above average, with highs consistently in the 90s to low triple digits over the plains, and 80s for the valleys. Latest NBM data does show the potential for isolated to occasionally scattered showers/storms during the afternoons, but just for the mountains thanks to some elevated heating.

The main concern through the next 5-7 days will be fire weather. Given the dry air, hot temps, and increasing winds, critical fire weather conditions are expected nearly every day next week over large portions of the area. Will have to keep a close eye on fuels to see what kinds of fire weather highlights might be necessary moving forward, Additionally, persistent hot temps may be hazardous to those sensitive to heat.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1126 AM MDT Sat Jun 6 2026

VFR conditions are generally expected at KALS, KCOS, and KPUB through 24 hours. Winds will mostly stay diurnally driven, though some isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon into early evening. While chances for precipitation at the terminals are low, gusty, erratic outflow winds may set in for a few hours, with higher confidence at KCOS and KALS. Another round of showers will be possible after 02Z or so for KCOS and KPUB, though with a lower chance for thunder and overall shorter-lived.

PUB WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 9 PM MDT Sunday for COZ222-229. Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening for COZ222.