Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

- Gradual warming trend and a drier stretch of weather into early next week, featuring temperatures in the upper 60s to lower/middle 70s.

- Shower and thunderstorm chances (50-70%) return by next Thursday and Friday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 245 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

Current Conditions and Synoptic Overview: Water vapor and upper air analysis shows a large mid level trough moving east of the area into the Great Lakes. A dry airmass has settled in as seen on the 00z KSGF sounding (0.21in PW value). Skies were clear and surface high pressure has settled into Oklahoma and Texas. This has allowed for winds to begin to turn more southwesterly however many areas have gone calm. The wind protected/sheltered areas have already seen temps drop into the lower to middle 30s. Most locations however were in the upper 30s and lower 40s. There is likely going to be some patchy frost development the next few hours prior to sunrise for locations that drop down into the lower/middle 30s.

Dry with increasing temperatures: After a cold start, temps should rebound nicely today with full sunshine and a dry airmass. Temps should easily reach the upper 60s to around 70. Guidance suggests a very weak back door front dropping into central Missouri late tonight which may increase cloud cover there. Given the dry airmass in place, precip will be hard to come by but a few areas may see a sprinkle near or northeast of Rolla. Warmer air aloft builds in for Monday with highs climbing into the lower to perhaps middle 70s.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 245 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

Increasing Rain Chances Thursday-Friday: Dry conditions will persist until late week as ensembles continue to suggest a large trough will move into the Rockies. This pattern looks to set up southwest flow aloft and will be our next rain/thunderstorm chances. The WPC has highlighted the area in a risk for heavy rainfall. CIPS analogs and CSU Machine Learning probs do suggest the potential for severe weather across the central/southern plains however predictability in finer details is low for our area at this time range.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1145 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

High confidence in VFR flight conditions prevailing through the period. West-southwest winds this afternoon around 8 to 12 knots, with occasional gusts approaching 20 knots. Winds turn more southerly and light overnight into Monday morning.

SGF WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.