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000 FXUS64 KSJT 191702 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 1202 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026...New AVIATION...KEY MESSAGES
- After drier weather today, chances for showers and storms return later tonight and Monday.
- Considerably warmer temperatures are expected mid-to-late week next week.
SHORT TERM
(Today and tonight) Issued at 1237 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026
Ridging aloft is expected to build across the area today, with some drier conditions expected today. Cloud cover will increase from south to north later this afternoon and evening, along with increasing precipitation chances from southwest to northeast later tonight into Monday morning. Radiational cooling early this morning will allow temperatures to drop into the low to mid 40s across much of the area. With some sunshine peaking through the clouds today, high temperatures this afternoon will be slightly warmer in the upper 60s to mid 70s. Breezy easterly winds are expected to increase later this morning, from 10 to 15 mph, with a few higher gusts up to 25 mph through this afternoon.
LONG TERM
(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 1207 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026
Cool and unsettled weather is expected to continue for Monday as a shortwave trough will set up over northwest Mexico. This, combined with gulf moisture making a northwestward return along the Rio Grande through west Texas, should result in widespread rainfall. Models show PWAT values over an inch across the Concho Valley and Edwards Plateau which could result in some locally heavy rainfall amounts on Monday. That being said, models tend to struggle with scenarios like this when there is a lack of good forcing mechanisms to provide a focus for heavy precipitation. Extensive cloud cover and rain could also result in rather cool high temperatures around 60 that day, depending on how the precipitation shield sets up. The upper-level wave should continue moving eastward across Texas on Tuesday. Rain chances should gradually come to an end and allow for warmer temperatures with better return flow and sunshine.
For the second half of the upcoming week, the upper-level flow pattern looks to shift again. A broad upper-level low will move out of the Pacific and into the western US on Wednesday and into the northern Plains on Thursday. For now, models show several waves rotating around the base of this trough on Thursday and Friday. This setup would push a series of systems through the southern Plains on Thursday through Saturday. These systems would interact with warm, moist southerly flow each day, and could result in isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms along the dryline each afternoon and evening. For now, rain chances were kept low due to the uncertainty of how these systems will progress and low coverage of precipitation.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1155 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026
Short range models continue to show a broad area of thunderstorms developing on Sunday night and Monday morning. Some of this activity even persists into Monday afternoon. Some minor gusty winds and small hail are possible with of any thunderstorms that do develop. Otherwise, MVFR to IFR ceilings will also develop along with reduced visibility at times.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
| Temperatures | Chance of precipitation | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Location | Tonight | Tomorrow | Tomorrow night | Next day | Tonight | Tomorrow | Tomorrow night | Next day |
| Abilene | 52 ℉ | 63 ℉ | 54 ℉ | 68 ℉ | 10% | 40% | 30% | 20% |
| San Angelo | 50 ℉ | 60 ℉ | 53 ℉ | 72 ℉ | 50% | 70% | 30% | 10% |
| Junction | 49 ℉ | 60 ℉ | 52 ℉ | 70 ℉ | 50% | 80% | 50% | 40% |
| Brownwood | 49 ℉ | 63 ℉ | 52 ℉ | 66 ℉ | 10% | 50% | 50% | 40% |
| Sweetwater | 52 ℉ | 63 ℉ | 54 ℉ | 72 ℉ | 20% | 50% | 20% | 10% |
| Ozona | 49 ℉ | 58 ℉ | 54 ℉ | 72 ℉ | 50% | 60% | 20% | 10% |
| Brady | 51 ℉ | 58 ℉ | 53 ℉ | 66 ℉ | 40% | 70% | 50% | 40% |
SJT WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES
None.
SHORT TERM...TP LONG TERM....19 AVIATION...41