Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

- Medium to high chances (40-70%) for showers and thunderstorms through tonight, with localized flash flooding possible. - A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening, with large hail and damaging winds the main hazards.

- Hot and dry conditions return next week and into the following weekend.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Sunday) Issued at 1215 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are developing late this morning, primarily across the western Big Country. A moist and unstable airmass will exist this afternoon and additional showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop across the forecast area as the day progresses. The threat for heavy rainfall will be a concern today, given precipitable water values around 1.5 inches. Torrential downpours will accompany the stronger storms, with rainfall rates of 1 to 2 inches in a short period of time possible. A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect for the eastern half of the Big Country and northern Edwards Plateau through tonight. Very heavy rainfall fell across a good portion of this area yesterday evening and overnight, so any additional rainfall will likely lead to some flooding issues.

In addition to the excessive rain potential, a marginal risk for localized severe thunderstorms exists for much of the area into the evening hours. Large hail, mainly up to quarter size and isolated wind gusts to 60 mph will be possible with the strongest storms. Showers and thunderstorms chances will persist tonight, primarily over eastern sections, with rainfall ending before daybreak Sunday morning.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 1215 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

Dry and warmer conditions are expected Sunday into next week, as upper level ridging develops across Texas. This pattern will result in near normal temperatures on Sunday with above normal temperatures as we head into next week. The hottest temperatures are expected by mid to late week, when most of the area will see highs in the mid and upper 90s, with some readings topping the 100 degree mark across western portions of the Big Country. Overnight lows will be in the 70s.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1243 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

Scattered TSRA have already developed across parts of the area, currently near KABI and KSJT. There are lesser chances of this afternoon activity affecting KSOA, KBBD, and KJCT, but additional SHRA and TSRA are possible later this afternoon and evening. Most of these storms should end late tonight, with no precipitation expected for Sunday. Storms will gradually end late tonight, with MVFR CIGs moving back in for sites south of I-20. Expect these ceilings to move in after 06z, and last through most of the morning hours for our sites south of KABI. South to southeast winds of around 10 knots will persist through tomorrow morning.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

SJT WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

Flood Watch through Sunday morning for Brown-Callahan-Coleman- Haskell-Jones-Shackelford-Taylor-Throckmorton.