Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 213 AM EDT Tue Apr 21 2026

- While critical conditions are not expected today, elevated fire concerns remain due to low humidity and very dry fuels. These concerns will continue into the weekend. Please follow the advice of local burn bans and officials.

- Rain chances possibly returning this weekend but significant rainfall amounts are not forecast and drought conditions will persist.

SHORT TERM

(Today and Tonight) Issued at 213 AM EDT Tue Apr 21 2026

Surface high pressure remains in place across the area but compared to Monday, winds will be lighter and thus Red Flag (critical fire weather) conditions are not forecast. However, despite the absence of Red Flag Warnings today, elevated fire danger will remain in place given critically low relative humidities (around 15-20%) and record dry fuels on the ground. Please seek out local officials advice regarding any burn bans and like yesterday, avoid any activities that can cause sparks or introduce flames.

For tonight surface high pressure begins to shift east and flow becomes more southeasterly compared to recent days.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 213 AM EDT Tue Apr 21 2026

The long term pattern will see several weak upper level systems traverse over the region in northwest flow aloft. At the surface, high pressure will slowly continue east and this will bring a gradual moistening trend across the region into the weekend and early next week. However, it'll take a few days for humidities to climb to levels that alleviate elevated fire concerns that will be in place through the weeks end. Some rain chances begin to enter the forecast for the weekend, but these chances will also bring the potential for scattered thunderstorms. While any rainfall will be very beneficial, significant drought relieving rainfalls do not appear likely at this time.

High temperatures warm through the week and we'll be back in the mid to upper 80s by the weekend.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 143 AM EDT Tue Apr 21 2026

Another round of VFR conds expected with lgt easterly winds and mostly SKC. An aftn seabreeze induces a south to southeasterly wind at ECP. Winds go calm within a couple hrs of sunset.

MARINE

Issued at 213 AM EDT Tue Apr 21 2026

A fresh easterly surge is expected to spread across the water tonight. Gentle to moderate southeast breezes will prevail from Tuesday through Thursday, as high pressure sets up well east of the Georgia coast. After Thursday, south and southeasterly flow gradually increase, potentially to cautionary levels, ahead of a few weak cold fronts.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 213 AM EDT Tue Apr 21 2026

Today will bring a slight reprieve from the most critical fire weather conditions as forecast winds will mostly be around 10 mph with gusts up to 15 mph. However, critically low afternoon humidity is expected again and will bottom out around 15 to 20% for most locations. The lone exception could be along the Panhandle coast where a weak seabreeze will develop this afternoon. These conditions will lead to elevated to near-critical fire weather concerns continuing.

From Wednesday onwards, the dry air mass will stick around through midweek with moisture slowly increasing Wednesday into Friday but afternoon humidities will still drop to around 30-40% most afternoons. Rain chances do appear to increase over the weekend and into early next week, and there is some potential for wetting rains, however thunderstorm chances will also increase. Additionally, dispersions ahead of these systems will increase as well which could foster further fire weather concerns.

HYDROLOGY

Issued at 213 AM EDT Tue Apr 21 2026

No rainfall is expected throughout the work week, ongoing drought will therefore continue or worsen. Some rainfall is possible over the upcoming weekend, but amounts do not appear significant at this time to bring much (if any) drought relief.

For more local drought information & statements, visit the following websites: weather.gov/tae/LocalDrought weather.gov/tae/DroughtInformationStatement

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TAE WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None.