Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

- Gusty winds will produce hazardous marine conditions over the eastern Gulf Waters this next week.

- Critical RH values and gusty winds will produce hazardous fire conditions on Monday.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 729 AM EDT Sun Apr 19 2026 VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. Light winds this morning will become northwest for this afternoon and then north and eventually northeast through tomorrow morning.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 330 AM EDT Sun Apr 19 2026

High pressure will hold on today with another mainly dry day with temperatures a few degrees above normal over inland areas, while the sea breeze keeps coastal areas closer to normal. A weak cold front will approach from the northwest later today, move across the region tonight, and exit to the south Monday morning. There will be a slight increase in moisture with the boundary, but not enough for much more than some additional clouds and possibly a couple of sprinkles as it moves across the area. Winds will increase out of the north and northeast behind the front with breezy conditions setting up into midweek as high pressure settles over the eastern states. Drier air will overspread the region during Monday and Tuesday, but before this happens there will be enough moisture over the southern interior and southwest Florida Monday afternoon and evening for a few showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Otherwise, the seasonably warm and dry weather pattern will continue across the area through the week.

MARINE

Issued at 330 AM EDT Sun Apr 19 2026

A weak cold front will move through the waters late today and tonight, with increasing winds and seas to start the week. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect tonight into Tuesday, but breezy northeast to east winds will continue into midweek. Winds and seas will subside for the second half of the week.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 330 AM EDT Sun Apr 19 2026

High pressure ridging over the region will keep rain-free conditions over the area through tonight. The next chance of any rainfall arrives Monday afternoon as some moisture moves in behind a weak cold front, but these rain chances will be limited to the southern interior and southwest Florida. Dry air with some critical relative humidity values are expected to overspread the area Monday afternoon, and this combined with breezy northeast winds will produce some hazardous fire weather conditions, primarily across the Nature Coast. A Fire Weather Watch has been issued for Levy County for Monday afternoon into Monday evening, and conditions will be closely monitored for possible Red Flag conditions further south into Citrus County. More critical relative humidity values and breezy northeast to east winds are expected for Tuesday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TBW WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

FL...Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening for Coastal Levy-Inland Levy.

Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 AM EDT Tuesday for Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Tampa Bay waters-Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM.

Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM Monday to noon EDT Tuesday for Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound-Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM.

Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 4 PM EDT Monday for Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM.