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000 FXUS62 KTBW 061748 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 148 PM EDT Sat Jun 6 2026...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 144 PM EDT Sat Jun 6 2026
- Above normal temps and mostly dry conditions over the weekend into early next week with heat indices topping 100 degrees. - Increasing shower and storm chances spreading northward across the area next week particularly mid week and beyond.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 144 PM EDT Sat Jun 6 2026 Morning skew-t showing PW less than an inch this morning as drier air remains over the area. This drier air aloft will keep shower chances at near 0 percent with highs warming up to the mid 90's both Saturday and Sunday.
This trend will continue to start our work week on Monday with highs returning to the mid 90's. We will slowly see moisture returning by Tuesday and Wednesday as highs return to the low 90's. However our upper level flow will remain out of the northeast. This will keep showers and storms mainly in southwest Florida.
Moisture continues to increase Thursday and Friday with PW getting back above 2 inches. At the same time we see our upper level flow switch more southeasterly. This should finally bring shower and storms back to the west coast of Florida.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS) Issued at 144 PM EDT Sat Jun 6 2026
VFR conditions through the period with mainly easterly flow. Coastal sites will see a westerly seabreeze kick in during the afternoon and evening hours.
MARINE
Issued at 144 PM EDT Sat Jun 6 2026
Winds will remain out of the east and southeast through the middle part of next week around 5 to 15 knots. We will see dry conditions through Monday with evening and early overnight storms along the west coast returning Tuesday and Wednesday.
FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 144 PM EDT Sat Jun 6 2026
Drier air will continue to filter in for the weekend with critical RH in the interior along the Nature Coast Sunday afternoon. However, winds will remain light so red flag will not be needed. Moisture will slowly return early next week with scattered showers returning by Wednesday.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
| Temperatures | Chance of Precipitation | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Location | Tonight | Tomorrow | Tomorrow night | Next day | Tonight | Tomorrow | Tomorrow night | Next day |
| TPA | 92 ℉ | 74 ℉ | 94 ℉ | 79 ℉ | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| FMY | 92 ℉ | 72 ℉ | 95 ℉ | 76 ℉ | 0% | 0% | 20% | 20% |
| GIF | 91 ℉ | 69 ℉ | 94 ℉ | 74 ℉ | 10% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| SRQ | 93 ℉ | 72 ℉ | 94 ℉ | 77 ℉ | 10% | 10% | 0% | 10% |
| BKV | 94 ℉ | 68 ℉ | 96 ℉ | 73 ℉ | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| SPG | 94 ℉ | 74 ℉ | 95 ℉ | 79 ℉ | 0% | 10% | 0% | 0% |
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 2 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 2
For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology
TBW WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES
FL...None. Gulf waters...None.
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Shiveley DECISION SUPPORT...Pearce UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Pearce