Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

- Chilly this morning with some frost/freeze conditions, but quickly warming through the day.

- Elevated fire danger continues today and Monday in north central Kansas.

- The next chance for showers and storms comes Thursday into Friday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 212 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

Northwest flow aloft and surface high pressure is in control of the region this morning. Clear skies and light winds have allowed temperatures to fall into the 30s and 40s, with some locales approaching the freezing mark. Light winds will support patchy/areas of frost this morning, mainly in low-lying areas. As high pressure slides southeast through the day, surface winds become west-southwesterly and bump temperatures back into the 70s this afternoon.

A closed upper low is progged to move into the western CONUS on Monday with mid-level ridging building over the Plains through the middle of the week, keeping local conditions dry with above-normal temperatures. Guidance has come into better agreement with the evolution and track of the aforementioned western trough as it ejects across the Northern Plains Wednesday into Thursday. The best forcing will reside north of the forecast area, but embedded perturbations in the southwest flow along with a surface dryline and cold front will increasing precipitation chances on Thursday. Details remain unclear this far out, but the severe weather parameter space could be conducive to severe weather, as highlighted by SPC, CIPS analogs, and the CSU machine learning products. Best chances for precipitation come as the cold front moves through Thursday evening/night with a cooler, more seasonable airmass moving in behind the boundary for Friday through the weekend.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 630 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

MIFG at KTOP this morning could reduce briefly reduce VSBY. Otherwise, VFR conditions prevail. Winds increase from the southwest this morning, becoming more west-northwesterly this afternoon. Winds weaken this evening and switch to the east.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 212 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

Elevated fire danger continues across north-central Kansas today and Monday due to slow green-up and dry conditions. Light winds (5-15 MPH) are expected today, but will shift from the southwest this morning to the west this afternoon. A very dry airmass along with temperatures in the 70s will lead to minimum relative humidity values of 15-20 percent across north-central Kansas. The weak winds will preclude the need for a Red Flag Warning. Monday looks a bit more concerning given south winds of 10-20 MPH with gusts of 25-30 MPH and relative humidity values near 20 percent in north-central Kansas Monday afternoon. A lack of green-up for areas along the Highway 81 corridor keeps fuels receptive to rapid fire spread, so will need to monitor conditions in this area for any potential fire headlines.

TOP WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

None.