Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

- Next round for storms expected on Sunday. Locally heavy rainfall and flooding will be the main hazards.

- Hot and humid conditions build in by next week with temperatures in the low to mid 90s and heat index values pushing above 100 degrees.

- A cold front will bring relief to the heat by the end of the week into next weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 137 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

Early this afternoon, water vapor satellite imagery along with upper air analysis showed a weak southern stream upper low across west TX. A more amplified upper trough was located across the Pacific Northwest. A down stream upper ridge was located across the central and northern Plains. An upper trough was moving east across the northeast US.

the 18Z surface map showed light southerly winds across the CWA. There was broken stratus along and south of I-70. The stratus will begin to scatter out during the early afternoon hours. Surface dewpoints were in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

This afternoon through Tonight:

The southern stream upper low will only slowly lift northeast into OK. The better ascent will remain to our south. Given a weak CAP and localized areas of surface convergence, there could be a few showers and thunderstorms developing during the afternoon and extending into the early evening hours. Nothing looks widespread for any flooding problems across the northeast counties this afternoon and overnight. If any pop-up storms develop, they will probably dissipate after sunset.

Later Tonight the light rain across south central and southeast KS may spread north with low stratus, as the ascent ahead of the upper low begins to move farther north into KS.

Sunday through Sunday night:

The southern stream upper low across western OK, will fill and become more of an open H5 trough as it moves east-northeast across OK and eastern KS. Most CAMs show the stronger ascent remaining across eastern OK, southeast KS, into western MO. The HREF shows only a 20 to 40 percent probability of receiving a half inch of rainfall through Sunday night, thus I don't see any flooding problems developing. Unless, a more mesoscale line of storms can develop. PWs are still around 1.75" so we will need to watch any organized band of thunderstorms developing, especially across northeast KS.

Monday through Wednesday:

The Pacific northwest H5 trough will only dig southeast into the Great Basin and then lift northeast into central Canada. A down stream H5 ridge will amplify across the southern and central Plains Monday through Tuesday, then slowly shift east as an H5 trough digs southeast across the CA coast into the southwest US.

Expect mostly dry conditions but southerly low-level winds wil advect gulf moisture northward across the Plains. Expect hot and humid conditions Tuesday, with highs in the lower to mid 90s and heat indices in the 105 to 110 degree range. The mixing will be bit deeper on Wednesday afternoon, which may keep heat indicies in the 100 to 105 degree range. Tuesday may be our first issuance of heat advisories this year.

Wednesday night through Saturday:

The extended range models are in good agreement through the remainder of the forecast period. The ECMWF is more progressive lifting the southwestern US H5 trough into the northern and central Plains Wednesday night into Thursday morning. This will bring a surface front southeast across the CWA late Wednesday night into Thursday morning with a chance for showers and storms along the front Wednesday night. The front will then push southeast of the CWA by early thursday afternoon.

The GFS is a bit slower and less amplified with the H5 trough lifting northeast across the central Plains on Thursday. The front will push southeast across the CWA during the afternoon hours with thunderstorms developing along the front during peak heating, with higher instability and increased vertical shear. If the GFS were to verify, then there could be a few strong to severe storms Thursday afternoon and evening.

The extended models show the front becoming stationary across the southern Plains. The mid and upper level flow will become northwesterly allowing minor perturbations to dig southeast across the Plains and provide enough ascent for scatter showers and isolated storms Friday and Sunday. Highs will cool back down into the 80s with less humidity.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1235 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

The stratus will eventually scatter out this afternoon and if we get some insolation there may be some isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms around the terminals this afternoon into the early evening. After 6Z CAM guidance show the low stratus returning with ceilings between 600 to 1000 feet with a chance for rain showers The low stratus wil hang around through much of Sunday morning.

TOP WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

None.