Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

* Warming and dry conditions will continue through Monday with above normal high temperatures today and tomorrow.

* Gusty winds will pick up on Tuesday, with unsettled weather continuing through the middle of the week.

DISCUSSION

through next weekend.

A transient ridge will move through the region today and tomorrow, strenghtening as it moves overhead. This will allow for dry conditions to continue through Monday with temperatures continuing to increase each day. Temperatures will top out around 4 to 8 degrees above normal this afternoon. Breezy southerly-to- southwesterly winds will pick up across the region on Monday afternoon as our next weather system approaches the West Coast. These winds will allow for better mixing on Monday, which when combined with the higher than normal 500 mb heights will allow for temperatures 6 to 12 degrees above normal on Monday afternoon.

Winds will increase and become more widespread on Tuesday as the aforementioned weather system begins to push into the region. Currently, there is around a 70 to 90% chance for wind gusts of 40 mph or greater on Tuesday across the western Mojave Desert, through Death Valley, and into the southwestern Great Basin. Given these high probabilities for wind gusts hitting Wind Advisory Criteria, wind headlines will likely be issued within the next 24 to 36 hours. On Wednesday winds will be lighter with elevated southwesterly wind lingering across the Mojave Desert into northwestern Arizona. In addition to gusty winds, the higher terrain of Inyo County and the southern Great Basin will see increased precipitation chances accompany this system Tuesday into Wednesday. Precipitation totals will remain light with 0.50 to 0.75 inches of precipitation possible in the upper-elevations of the Eastern Sierra and less than half an inch elsewhere. Speaking of the Eastern Sierra, snow levels will be around 7,000 to 8,000 feet, allowing for a couple inches of new snow accumulation. Outside of the Eastern Sierra, snow accumulations will be minor, if any accumulates at all across the higher terrain of the southern Great Basin. Temperatures will cool to around 5 to 10 degrees below normal by Wednesday, as the system exits the Great Basin. Beyond Wednesday, troughiness will linger through the end of the week, but temperatures will gradually rebound back up to above normal.

AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 12Z Forecast Package

Winds will generally remain southwesterly, with a period of variability this morning through early afternoon, and again at the end of the forecast period. Wind speeds will remain around 5-7KT until late this afternoon into early evening, when a brief uptick to around 10KT is expected. While intermittent higher gusts may result, especially before sunset, confidence in this occuring is low. VFR conditions prevail, with increasing mid-level and high clouds with bases at or above 15kft.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...For the 12Z Forecast Package...Across the area, winds will generally remain around 5- 10KT, following typical daily directional patterns with some variability. In the Las Vegas Valley, a brief period of elevated southwesterlies is expected this afternoon through early evening, with speeds expected to top out around 10-12kt. Additionally, across the northern Owens Valley/KBIH, gusty up-valley winds are expected from mid- morning through sunset, with gusts from 20- 25KT early expected to increase to 25-30KT during the afternoon. Another exception will be the western Mojave Desert in the vicinity of KDAG, where westerly winds late afternoon through tonight are expected to gust to 18-20KT. Otherwise, VFR conditions prevail, with increasing clouds through tonight with bases at or above 15kft.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures.