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000 FXUS65 KABQ 191120 AAA AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 520 AM MDT Sun Apr 19 2026...New AVIATION...KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 520 AM MDT Sun Apr 19 2026
- A late Spring freeze is likely this morning across portions of the East Central Plains. Take precautions to protect exposed plumbing and early blooming plants.
- Critical fire weather conditions will increase the threat of rapid fire spread in northeastern New Mexico this afternoon. There is moderate confidence in more widespread critical fire weather conditions on Wednesday and Thursday.
- Evaporating showers and dry thunderstorms Monday will result in gusty and erratic wind gusts up to 50 mph, patchy blowing dust, and potential fire starts from dry lightning.
SHORT TERM
(Today through Monday) Issued at 136 AM MDT Sun Apr 19 2026
It is a clear and chilly night across northern and central NM. East to southeast return flow is resulting in some gusty winds up 30 mph ear canyon openings across the middle and lower RGV. These winds should taper off before sunrise this morning as the surface pressure gradient relaxes. Sunday morning low temperatures will be warmer by around 5 to 10 degrees for most due to the moderating airmass. The one exception will be the southeast plains due to lighter winds and more ideal radiational cooling than yesterday morning. With locations across the east central plains around to just below freezing and around to just after their last average freeze date, a freeze warning is in effect until 8 AM for these zones. Temperatures will bottom out in the mid to upper 20s across the northeast highlands and Estancia Valley, but with temperatures warmer than last night and their average freeze date in early to mid May stuck with the reasoning of the day shift and decided to not issue Freeze Warnings for these zones.
Upper level ridging will move overhead on Sunday. Southeast and south surface and mid level flow ahead of a weak disturbance over southern CA will bring in some slightly higher moisture in the form of high and mid level clouds to southern, western and central areas of the state. Meanwhile across northeast NM, dry southwest wind gusts up to 45 mph combined with minimum relative humidity values in the low to mid teens will result in a higher potential for rapid fire spread Sunday afternoon and early Sunday evening, so a Red Flag Warning is in effect for this part of the state.
Cloud bases gradually lower Sunday night into Monday morning, with some low clouds and potentially some isolated showers across southeast NM, as the weak disturbance approaches the state. Come Monday morning PWATs will range from around 0.4 to 0.75 for most areas with the east central southeast plains seeing the higher end of this range. Drier PWATs of 0.2 to 0.4 inches will linger across north central and northeast NM. This higher moisture combined with daytime heating and the weak disturbance overhead will set the stage for a mix of wet and dry showers and thunderstorms for mostly western and central NM. Wetter activity will favor the southwest and south central higher terrain with rainfall amounts of up to 0.25 inches. Drier shower and thunderstorm activity will come with the associated hazards of erratic wind gusts of up to 50 mph, patchy blowing dust and dry lightning strikes, which could lead to future fire starts later in the week.
LONG TERM
(Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 136 AM MDT Sun Apr 19 2026
Wet/dry shower and thunderstorm activity across central and eastern NM Monday evening will taper off before midnight. Clouds will clear out for most, except for low cloud development across southeast NM due to low surface dewpoint depressions. Drier westerly flow moves into the state Tuesday in the wake of the disturbance and ahead of an unseasonably strong upper low spinning off the Pacific coast. A few gusty virga showers to light rain showers can't be ruled out across the central high terrain due to some lingering mid level moisture.
The upper low is forecasted to move into the western U.S Wednesday and across the intermountain West Thursday. resulting in much drier and gusty southwest winds Wednesday and west winds Thursday. As a result, a higher potential for rapid fire spread will exist for much of northern and central NM outside of the higher elevations. As mentioned in the short term, locations that experienced dry lightning strikes on Monday will be potential breeding grounds for fire starts Wednesday and Thursday. With deep daytime mixing tapping into 500 to 700 mb winds of 40 to 55 kts at the base of the low, MOS guidance shows potential for 50 mph wind gusts across northeast NM and around Gallup Wednesday afternoon and along and just east of the central mountain chain Thursday afternoon along with some mountain wave activity Wednesday night into Thursday morning.
As the upper low moves northeast over the northern Great Plains Thursday night into Friday morning, it will send a backdoor front with some gusty north winds through eastern NM. Longwave troughing remains west of New Mexico Friday into next weekend. Upper and mid level westerly flow will help to quickly mix out the backdoor front Friday with breezy southwest and west winds each afternoon Friday-Sunday. Precip chances could return to northern areas early next week as upper level flow tries to back in response to an potential approaching new upper low over southern CA among the overall longwave troughing. Temperatures will be above average by 5 to 15 degrees Tuesday and Wednesday before cooling down closer to average across western and central NM Thursday in the wake of the Pacific front and across eastern NM Friday in the wake of the backdoor front. Near average temperatures next weekend.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS) Issued at 520 AM MDT Sun Apr 19 2026
Increasing high level clouds from southwest to northeast during the day Sunday with light south winds across western and central NM. Breezy to gusty south winds beginning mid morning across northeast NM expanding south to much of eastern NM by the afternoon. Peak gusts of 20 to 35 kts, with the strongest winds around KCAO. Winds taper off around sunset with gradually lowering ceilings. Low clouds developing in the lower Pecos River Valley and caprock south and east of KROW around 06Z. MVFR ceilings are expected to remain south and east of KROW at this time.
FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 136 AM MDT Sun Apr 19 2026
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR NORTHEAST NM TODAY AND POTENTIALLY MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NM WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
Critical fire weather conditions return to northeast New Mexico today due to gusty southwest winds from a surface lee trough combined with low minimum relative humidity values in the low to mid teens. Elevated gulf moisture across the state Monday will result in a mix of scattered dry and wet showers and thunderstorms across most areas, outside of far northeast New Mexico Monday. Wetter showers and thunderstorms will favor the southwest and south central high terrain. Dry lightning across central areas could result in future fire starts. Warmer with light south and southwest winds Tuesday. Gusty southwest winds Wednesday as an system moves into the western U.S. These stronger winds combined with minimum relative humidity values in the upper single digits to low teens will result in the potential for critical fire weather conditions across much of northern and central New Mexico. The system moves across the intermountain West Thursday resulting in gusty west winds, low relative humidity values, and critical fire weather conditions for most areas. Southwest and west winds remain elevated Friday through next weekend among slightly cooler temperatures and slightly higher relative humidity values resulting in elevated to near critical fire weather conditions. Low precipitation chances could return to far northern areas late next weekend.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
| Temperatures | Chance of precipitation | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Location | Tonight | Tomorrow | Tomorrow night | Next day | Tonight | Tomorrow | Tomorrow night | Next day |
| Farmington...................... | 73 ℉ | 45 ℉ | 76 ℉ | 44 ℉ | 0% | 0% | 10% | 5% |
| Dulce........................... | 70 ℉ | 29 ℉ | 73 ℉ | 30 ℉ | 0% | 0% | 10% | 5% |
| Cuba............................ | 67 ℉ | 38 ℉ | 69 ℉ | 39 ℉ | 0% | 0% | 20% | 20% |
| Gallup.......................... | 73 ℉ | 38 ℉ | 72 ℉ | 35 ℉ | 0% | 5% | 30% | 10% |
| El Morro........................ | 69 ℉ | 40 ℉ | 67 ℉ | 39 ℉ | 0% | 5% | 40% | 20% |
| Grants.......................... | 71 ℉ | 36 ℉ | 72 ℉ | 36 ℉ | 0% | 5% | 40% | 20% |
| Quemado......................... | 70 ℉ | 41 ℉ | 69 ℉ | 39 ℉ | 5% | 10% | 50% | 10% |
| Magdalena....................... | 66 ℉ | 44 ℉ | 69 ℉ | 46 ℉ | 0% | 10% | 50% | 20% |
| Datil........................... | 65 ℉ | 41 ℉ | 66 ℉ | 41 ℉ | 5% | 10% | 60% | 20% |
| Reserve......................... | 75 ℉ | 38 ℉ | 75 ℉ | 37 ℉ | 5% | 10% | 50% | 5% |
| Glenwood........................ | 78 ℉ | 41 ℉ | 80 ℉ | 42 ℉ | 10% | 10% | 40% | 5% |
| Chama........................... | 62 ℉ | 31 ℉ | 66 ℉ | 34 ℉ | 0% | 0% | 10% | 5% |
| Los Alamos...................... | 65 ℉ | 44 ℉ | 68 ℉ | 45 ℉ | 0% | 0% | 20% | 20% |
| Pecos........................... | 67 ℉ | 37 ℉ | 69 ℉ | 40 ℉ | 0% | 0% | 40% | 30% |
| Cerro/Questa.................... | 65 ℉ | 38 ℉ | 68 ℉ | 39 ℉ | 0% | 0% | 10% | 10% |
| Red River....................... | 55 ℉ | 32 ℉ | 59 ℉ | 34 ℉ | 0% | 0% | 20% | 10% |
| Angel Fire...................... | 61 ℉ | 24 ℉ | 65 ℉ | 26 ℉ | 0% | 0% | 20% | 20% |
| Taos............................ | 67 ℉ | 30 ℉ | 72 ℉ | 33 ℉ | 0% | 0% | 20% | 10% |
| Mora............................ | 67 ℉ | 34 ℉ | 69 ℉ | 37 ℉ | 0% | 0% | 20% | 20% |
| Espanola........................ | 73 ℉ | 39 ℉ | 76 ℉ | 40 ℉ | 0% | 0% | 20% | 10% |
| Santa Fe........................ | 67 ℉ | 43 ℉ | 69 ℉ | 45 ℉ | 0% | 0% | 30% | 20% |
| Santa Fe Airport................ | 70 ℉ | 41 ℉ | 72 ℉ | 42 ℉ | 0% | 0% | 20% | 20% |
| Albuquerque Foothills........... | 73 ℉ | 50 ℉ | 74 ℉ | 51 ℉ | 0% | 5% | 20% | 20% |
| Albuquerque Heights............. | 74 ℉ | 48 ℉ | 75 ℉ | 47 ℉ | 0% | 5% | 20% | 20% |
| Albuquerque Valley.............. | 76 ℉ | 47 ℉ | 78 ℉ | 46 ℉ | 0% | 5% | 20% | 20% |
| Albuquerque West Mesa........... | 74 ℉ | 49 ℉ | 76 ℉ | 49 ℉ | 0% | 5% | 20% | 10% |
| Belen........................... | 75 ℉ | 44 ℉ | 77 ℉ | 42 ℉ | 0% | 10% | 30% | 20% |
| Bernalillo...................... | 75 ℉ | 46 ℉ | 77 ℉ | 47 ℉ | 0% | 5% | 20% | 20% |
| Bosque Farms.................... | 75 ℉ | 44 ℉ | 77 ℉ | 42 ℉ | 0% | 10% | 30% | 20% |
| Corrales........................ | 75 ℉ | 47 ℉ | 77 ℉ | 47 ℉ | 0% | 5% | 20% | 20% |
| Los Lunas....................... | 75 ℉ | 45 ℉ | 77 ℉ | 43 ℉ | 0% | 10% | 30% | 20% |
| Placitas........................ | 71 ℉ | 48 ℉ | 72 ℉ | 49 ℉ | 0% | 5% | 20% | 20% |
| Rio Rancho...................... | 75 ℉ | 48 ℉ | 76 ℉ | 48 ℉ | 0% | 5% | 20% | 10% |
| Socorro......................... | 75 ℉ | 49 ℉ | 78 ℉ | 48 ℉ | 0% | 20% | 40% | 20% |
| Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... | 67 ℉ | 44 ℉ | 69 ℉ | 45 ℉ | 0% | 5% | 30% | 30% |
| Tijeras......................... | 69 ℉ | 45 ℉ | 69 ℉ | 46 ℉ | 0% | 10% | 30% | 30% |
| Edgewood........................ | 70 ℉ | 39 ℉ | 71 ℉ | 40 ℉ | 0% | 5% | 30% | 20% |
| Moriarty/Estancia............... | 72 ℉ | 34 ℉ | 72 ℉ | 34 ℉ | 0% | 5% | 30% | 20% |
| Clines Corners.................. | 66 ℉ | 39 ℉ | 67 ℉ | 41 ℉ | 0% | 0% | 40% | 20% |
| Mountainair..................... | 69 ℉ | 41 ℉ | 70 ℉ | 42 ℉ | 0% | 10% | 40% | 20% |
| Gran Quivira.................... | 68 ℉ | 41 ℉ | 69 ℉ | 42 ℉ | 0% | 20% | 40% | 30% |
| Carrizozo....................... | 69 ℉ | 44 ℉ | 72 ℉ | 47 ℉ | 0% | 20% | 40% | 20% |
| Ruidoso......................... | 63 ℉ | 41 ℉ | 66 ℉ | 44 ℉ | 0% | 20% | 50% | 20% |
| Capulin......................... | 64 ℉ | 33 ℉ | 70 ℉ | 36 ℉ | 0% | 0% | 5% | 5% |
| Raton........................... | 70 ℉ | 31 ℉ | 73 ℉ | 35 ℉ | 0% | 0% | 10% | 5% |
| Springer........................ | 71 ℉ | 32 ℉ | 75 ℉ | 35 ℉ | 0% | 0% | 10% | 10% |
| Las Vegas....................... | 66 ℉ | 36 ℉ | 69 ℉ | 39 ℉ | 0% | 0% | 20% | 20% |
| Clayton......................... | 69 ℉ | 42 ℉ | 75 ℉ | 44 ℉ | 0% | 0% | 0% | 5% |
| Roy............................. | 65 ℉ | 36 ℉ | 72 ℉ | 40 ℉ | 0% | 0% | 20% | 10% |
| Conchas......................... | 73 ℉ | 41 ℉ | 78 ℉ | 44 ℉ | 0% | 0% | 20% | 20% |
| Santa Rosa...................... | 67 ℉ | 39 ℉ | 72 ℉ | 42 ℉ | 0% | 0% | 30% | 20% |
| Tucumcari....................... | 74 ℉ | 42 ℉ | 77 ℉ | 47 ℉ | 0% | 0% | 20% | 10% |
| Clovis.......................... | 71 ℉ | 43 ℉ | 72 ℉ | 48 ℉ | 0% | 0% | 30% | 20% |
| Portales........................ | 72 ℉ | 42 ℉ | 72 ℉ | 47 ℉ | 0% | 5% | 30% | 20% |
| Fort Sumner..................... | 70 ℉ | 41 ℉ | 74 ℉ | 45 ℉ | 0% | 0% | 30% | 20% |
| Roswell......................... | 70 ℉ | 46 ℉ | 74 ℉ | 49 ℉ | 0% | 20% | 30% | 20% |
| Picacho......................... | 67 ℉ | 41 ℉ | 72 ℉ | 44 ℉ | 0% | 20% | 50% | 20% |
| Elk............................. | 66 ℉ | 38 ℉ | 72 ℉ | 41 ℉ | 5% | 20% | 40% | 20% |
ABQ WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES
Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM MDT this evening for NMZ104-123.
Freeze Warning until 8 AM MDT this morning for NMZ233-235>237.
SHORT TERM...71 LONG TERM....71 AVIATION...71