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000 FXUS65 KABQ 061735 AAB AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1135 AM MDT Sat Jun 6 2026...New AVIATION...

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1135 AM MDT Sat Jun 6 2026

- Isolated to scattered light showers and dry thunderstorms over parts of western and central New Mexico Saturday, Monday and Tuesday may result in strong and erratic gusty winds, dry lightning, and risk of new fire starts.

- Moderate risk for heat-related illnesses across the Rio Grande Valley and eastern New Mexico this upcoming week.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Sunday) Issued at 147 AM MDT Sat Jun 6 2026

Latest forecast trends are toward lower storm chances today along the central mt chain and nearby Rio Grande Valley. Drier and more stable air is shown sliding farther east into more of central and western NM as an H5 ridge drifts southeast into southwest NM. The deeper moisture will remain over eastern NM on the backside of a departing upper level low. Storms are still expected to fire up along the east slopes of the central mt chain then move south- southeast into the high plains of eastern NM thru sunset. Outflows will be strong again with cells on the western periphery today as DCAPE exceeds 1000 J/kg with the drier air advecting east. Storms will gather steam as they push farther east into better low level moisture and instability. Several CAMs show max QPF values near 1.5" with the stronger cells over southeast NM, including HREF and REFS LPMMs (local probability matched mean).

The upper level high will crest over the region tonight as an upper level trough approaches from the west. Slightly stronger westerly winds over the region Sunday will help to boost temps above normal with much of eastern NM topping out in the upper 90s to low 100s. A thin layer of mid level moisture creeping north into southwest NM ahead of the approaching trough may squeeze out a couple virga showers by late day.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 147 AM MDT Sat Jun 6 2026

By Monday, the aforementioned upper level high will strengthen over TX while the upper level trough advances east into western AZ. This squeeze play will force a 55-65kt speed max into western NM Monday afternoon. Improving ascent with the upper jet and enough mid level moisture seeping north ahead of the upper trough will allow isolated to scattered virga showers and dry storms to develop over central NM. Model DCAPE values as high as 1800 J/kg over western NM with large inverted-V profiles would support strong downburst winds. Even global models show outflow boundaries emanating from this area of showers by late Monday afternoon.

The focus for high-based showers and perhaps dry storms shifts into eastern NM by Tuesday as the upper level trough attempts to suppress the upper ridge farther southeast into TX. Breezy southwest winds over western and central NM may pose a risk to new fire starts from any dry lightning strikes on Monday. Extended guidance is coming into better agreement with dry zonal flow over the entire region by Wednesday as the upper trough lifts north and the upper high reorganizes over northern MX.

Long range models largely disagree on how the subtropical ridge to our south will evolve over the southwest CONUS next weekend. This ridge is our monsoon high beginning to make an appearance.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1135 AM MDT Sat Jun 6 2026

High based showers and thunderstorms across the north central mountains will move southeast into lower elevations across north central, northeast, and east central NM this afternoon and early evening. Main hazards will be gusty and erratic wind gusts up to 45 kts, patchy areas of blowing dust, and small wetting footprints under heavier cores. Showers and thunderstorms quickly taper off around sunset with clearing skies overnight.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 147 AM MDT Sat Jun 6 2026

Single digit humidity with slightly stronger west winds will spread farther east across western and central NM today. Meanwhile, areas along and east of the central mt chain will see another round of showers and storms with strong outflow winds and moderate to locally heavy rainfall. Storm motion will be south to southeast at 15 to 20 mph. An upper level trough will approach from the west Sunday thru Tuesday with increasing southwest winds and hot temperatures. Single digit humidity and poor recoveries will focus over much of western NM during this period with elevated to locally critical fire weather likely. Areas between the Cont Divide and the central mt chain may see high-based showers and dry storms Monday and Tuesday with strong downburst wind gusts. The greatest chance for a Fire Weather Watch is Tuesday and Wednesday over western NM when critical conditions coincide with RFTI values of 3 to 6 and ERC values above the 90th percentile.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Location	Tonight	Tomorrow	Tomorrow night	Next day	Tonight	Tomorrow	Tomorrow night	Next day
	Temperatures				Chance of Precipitation
Farmington......................	94 ℉	58 ℉	91 ℉	55 ℉	0%	0%	0%	0%
Dulce...........................	90 ℉	46 ℉	85 ℉	45 ℉	0%	0%	0%	0%
Cuba............................	88 ℉	54 ℉	86 ℉	53 ℉	10%	0%	0%	0%
Gallup..........................	90 ℉	50 ℉	87 ℉	46 ℉	0%	0%	0%	0%
El Morro........................	85 ℉	52 ℉	83 ℉	49 ℉	0%	0%	0%	0%
Grants..........................	90 ℉	55 ℉	88 ℉	52 ℉	0%	0%	0%	0%
Quemado.........................	86 ℉	52 ℉	85 ℉	50 ℉	0%	0%	0%	0%
Magdalena.......................	86 ℉	61 ℉	86 ℉	59 ℉	10%	5%	0%	0%
Datil...........................	84 ℉	56 ℉	83 ℉	53 ℉	0%	0%	0%	0%
Reserve.........................	92 ℉	47 ℉	89 ℉	48 ℉	5%	0%	0%	0%
Glenwood........................	96 ℉	50 ℉	94 ℉	51 ℉	0%	0%	0%	0%
Chama...........................	82 ℉	44 ℉	80 ℉	44 ℉	20%	0%	0%	0%
Los Alamos......................	83 ℉	58 ℉	84 ℉	59 ℉	40%	5%	0%	0%
Pecos...........................	83 ℉	50 ℉	85 ℉	54 ℉	40%	5%	0%	0%
Cerro/Questa....................	83 ℉	51 ℉	83 ℉	53 ℉	40%	5%	0%	0%
Red River.......................	72 ℉	43 ℉	73 ℉	45 ℉	50%	10%	0%	0%
Angel Fire......................	77 ℉	42 ℉	78 ℉	46 ℉	50%	10%	0%	0%
Taos............................	85 ℉	48 ℉	85 ℉	51 ℉	30%	5%	0%	0%
Mora............................	80 ℉	50 ℉	83 ℉	52 ℉	60%	5%	0%	0%
Espanola........................	92 ℉	55 ℉	92 ℉	56 ℉	20%	5%	0%	0%
Santa Fe........................	84 ℉	57 ℉	85 ℉	59 ℉	20%	5%	0%	0%
Santa Fe Airport................	88 ℉	54 ℉	88 ℉	56 ℉	20%	5%	0%	0%
Albuquerque Foothills...........	93 ℉	65 ℉	93 ℉	67 ℉	10%	5%	0%	0%
Albuquerque Heights.............	94 ℉	62 ℉	94 ℉	63 ℉	5%	5%	0%	0%
Albuquerque Valley..............	97 ℉	62 ℉	97 ℉	62 ℉	5%	5%	0%	0%
Albuquerque West Mesa...........	94 ℉	63 ℉	94 ℉	63 ℉	10%	5%	0%	0%
Belen...........................	96 ℉	61 ℉	95 ℉	60 ℉	5%	5%	0%	0%
Bernalillo......................	95 ℉	63 ℉	95 ℉	64 ℉	10%	5%	0%	0%
Bosque Farms....................	95 ℉	59 ℉	95 ℉	59 ℉	5%	5%	0%	0%
Corrales........................	95 ℉	63 ℉	95 ℉	64 ℉	10%	5%	0%	0%
Los Lunas.......................	95 ℉	61 ℉	95 ℉	61 ℉	5%	5%	0%	0%
Placitas........................	90 ℉	63 ℉	91 ℉	65 ℉	10%	5%	0%	0%
Rio Rancho......................	94 ℉	63 ℉	94 ℉	63 ℉	10%	5%	0%	0%
Socorro.........................	96 ℉	66 ℉	97 ℉	66 ℉	5%	5%	0%	0%
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........	86 ℉	59 ℉	87 ℉	60 ℉	10%	5%	0%	0%
Tijeras.........................	88 ℉	57 ℉	88 ℉	59 ℉	10%	5%	0%	0%
Edgewood........................	87 ℉	56 ℉	89 ℉	57 ℉	20%	5%	0%	0%
Moriarty/Estancia...............	88 ℉	52 ℉	90 ℉	53 ℉	30%	5%	0%	0%
Clines Corners..................	83 ℉	54 ℉	86 ℉	57 ℉	30%	5%	0%	0%
Mountainair.....................	86 ℉	55 ℉	88 ℉	55 ℉	10%	5%	0%	0%
Gran Quivira....................	85 ℉	57 ℉	87 ℉	57 ℉	10%	5%	0%	0%
Carrizozo.......................	87 ℉	62 ℉	90 ℉	64 ℉	0%	5%	0%	0%
Ruidoso.........................	79 ℉	57 ℉	83 ℉	59 ℉	10%	0%	0%	0%
Capulin.........................	81 ℉	48 ℉	88 ℉	53 ℉	40%	20%	0%	0%
Raton...........................	85 ℉	49 ℉	91 ℉	52 ℉	40%	10%	0%	0%
Springer........................	87 ℉	50 ℉	93 ℉	52 ℉	40%	10%	0%	0%
Las Vegas.......................	82 ℉	51 ℉	88 ℉	53 ℉	50%	10%	0%	0%
Clayton.........................	84 ℉	53 ℉	94 ℉	62 ℉	5%	5%	5%	0%
Roy.............................	83 ℉	52 ℉	92 ℉	56 ℉	40%	20%	0%	0%
Conchas.........................	90 ℉	57 ℉	100 ℉	60 ℉	20%	20%	0%	0%
Santa Rosa......................	89 ℉	55 ℉	97 ℉	60 ℉	20%	20%	0%	0%
Tucumcari.......................	89 ℉	59 ℉	100 ℉	63 ℉	10%	30%	0%	0%
Clovis..........................	84 ℉	59 ℉	98 ℉	64 ℉	10%	30%	0%	0%
Portales........................	85 ℉	59 ℉	99 ℉	64 ℉	10%	20%	0%	0%
Fort Sumner.....................	89 ℉	58 ℉	100 ℉	61 ℉	20%	30%	0%	0%
Roswell.........................	91 ℉	61 ℉	102 ℉	64 ℉	0%	10%	0%	0%
Picacho.........................	86 ℉	58 ℉	94 ℉	62 ℉	10%	10%	0%	0%
Elk.............................	84 ℉	57 ℉	92 ℉	59 ℉	30%	0%	0%	0%

ABQ WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

None.

SHORT TERM...42 LONG TERM....42 AVIATION...71

Area Forecast Discussion