Area Forecast Discussion

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 907 am EDT...Quick update to the forecast as the rain has transitioned to snow the past few hours based on the NYS Mesonet CAMs in the west/southwest Adirondacks with temps falling to the lower to mid 30s. Some accumulation on the grassy surfaces at places like Old Forge. Snow seems to be occurring at elevations down to 1500 to 2000 ft. We updated the hourly temps based on observations with a slightly quicker cool down and made some slight tweaks to snow amounts with 1-2" possible in parts of the west/southwest Adirondacks.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A cold front will be returning much cooler temperatures back to the region today with some additional rain showers and mountain snow showers, although any minor accumulation will be limited to the mountain peaks.

2) Although the upcoming week will start out unseasonably cold, temperatures will moderate back to near or slightly above normal by later in the week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Showers have been overspreading the area as a cold front slowly approaches from the west. New York State mesonet and ASOS observations show temperatures are in the 50s across the region, although the cooler air is not far away, with upstream temps down into the 40s across all of western and central New York. The surface front will be reaching western areas over the next few hours before crossing the Hudson Valley around daybreak and western New England by the mid-morning hours. As the front crosses, temperatures will be crashing down in the 40s for most areas, with some 30s for the higher elevations.

As a weak wave of low pressure develops along the front boundary, this will allow periods of showers to continue even behind the front for much of the day. The precip may gradually taper off in the afternoon from west to east, with all areas finally done by the early evening hours. With the cooler air arriving over the high terrain, there will be a chance to wet snow for high terrain areas (mainly about 1000-1500 ft). Any minor accumulation (coating to an inch) will be limited to the highest terrain, with the higher totals over the peaks. This snow accumulation won't have any impacts on travel due to being limited to these very high terrain areas.

Westerly winds will be picking up this afternoon thanks to the strong pressure gradient and cooler air arriving aloft, promoting good mixing. Some gusts in the 20-30 mph are possible, mainly for western New England.

Temps will be falling into the mid 20s to mid 30s for tonight. Any lingering wet surfaces could become slick, although this probably won't be too widespread due to the breezy conditions. Otherwise, it will feel rather chilly considering the recent warm weather and there will be a need for coats and jackets to return after the mild weather of the past week.

On Monday, the upper level trough will be overhead, with 850 hpa temps as low as -8 to -10 C. Some passing snow showers and flurries are possible on Monday, especially in the morning hours, although moisture will be limited. Little to no accumulation is expected, but some passing flakes are certainly possible based on the latest CAMs. Temps will only reach the mid 30s to upper 40s by afternoon, with high temps a good 15 degrees below normal for many locations. Chilly temps are expected on Monday night with lows down into the teens and 20s for much of the region, although it should be dry and clear with little to no wind.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Although the week will start out very chilly on Monday, there should be some moderations by Tuesday and Wednesday as the upper level trough pushes eastward. Still, temps appear to be below normal for both days, with daytime temps only in the 50s. A few passing showers are expected Tuesday evening through early Wednesday thanks to a cold front, but total rainfall amounts look fairly light.

Temperatures will be closer to normal for the late week, with highs back into the 60s for valley areas by Thursday and Friday. There remains some uncertainty regarding how warm it will get by late week into next weekend, as models disagree on where a ridge axis sets up, as a closed low will also be located somewhere over the western Atlantic off the coast of eastern New England. For now, will stick with the NBM, which suggests temps near or slightly above normal for the late week with the next chance for showers over the weekend.

AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Through 18Z Monday...Flight conditions continue to be MVFR/IFR for KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF early this afternoon with periods of rain and snow with the departing low pressure system near Cape Cod. The IFR conditions are cigs/vsbys at KPOU/KPSF...and where vsbys and cigs are reduced due to some wet snow at KPSF. Expect an improvement to high MVFR/low VFR conditions to occur between 20-22Z/Sun for KALB/KGFL/KPOU with rain diminishing. KPSF may have lingering MVFR cigs close to 00Z/Mon. Tonight, expect the skies to become mostly clear to partly cloudy with VFR conditions. However, in the wake of a secondary cold front, another upper level disturbance will approach Monday morning with mid and high clouds increasing. Bases may lower to 3.5-5 kft AGL by the late morning with a few rain/snow showers approaching KPOU/KPSF prior to 18Z/Mon.

The winds will vary from the north to west 8-15 KT this afternoon with some gusts 20-25 KT at KALB/KPSF. The winds will decrease from the west to northwest at less than 10 KT overnight. Expect the winds to increase from the west/northwest around 10 KT in the late morning with some gusts around 20 KT at KALB.

Outlook...

Monday Night to Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Wednesday to Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.