Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

-Fog redevelopment likely tonight.

-High pressure building across the region supports quiet and dry weather Sunday and Monday.

-Hot and humid weather builds next week with potential record breaking highs Thursday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 253 PM EDT Sat Jun 6 2026

Pattern Synopsis:

A shortwave midlevel trough, with its axis positioned over Lake Huron today will progress towards the East Coast. At the same time, upstream ridging begins to move into the Great Lakes Region, scouring out any remaining moisture and cloud cover across the CWA. At the surface, high pressure will support quiet and dry weather this Sunday and Monday.

The next chance of rain returns this Tuesday as an embedded wave develops a weak system over the upper Mississippi Valley and then lifts across the Great Lakes Region. Enough instability in the region will support convective-driven showers, delivering the typical unorganized amounts of QPF the to northwoods before the wave progresses northeast. Ridging the remainder of the week will cause temperatures to surge well above normal for mid-June, with highs expected to reach the upper 80s to low 90s.

Forecast Details:

Tonight, Sunday and Monday: Overnight dew point temperatures remain in the upper 40s/low 50s while clear skies will allow temperatures to fall via radiational cooling. Patchy fog will develop tonight as a result, especially favoring interior northern lower. Fog should dissipate shortly after sunrise was daytime mixing leads to clear skies and highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s Sunday and Monday.

Tuesday and Wednesday:The previously mentioned midlevel wave will develop weak low pressure of the Dakota/Minnesota Border and progress eastward into the Great Lakes Region by Tuesday. Even with a weakening and unorganized system, surface based instability will support scattered convective-driven showers for parts of Northern Michigan. Highest probabilities of QPF remain south of the bridge between 0.25-0.50". With PWAT's remaining above an inch across northern lower combined with a deep warm column of air, localized higher amounts of precipitation remain likely. That being said, a very synoptically disheveled system will lead to very unorganized amounts of precipitation across the CWA with many areas also observing less than the highest probs. Lingering showers will continue into Wednesday before the abundance of moisture departs to the east, but little to no additional QPF is expected.

Thursday through Saturday Outlook: The aforementioned ridge building across the eastern half of the CONUS will support hot and humid weather through the remainder of the week. Warm southerly air influence with 850mb temperatures in the upper teens to low 20s (Celsius) will support widespread highs in the mid to upper 80s Thursday and Friday. Warmest day will be observed Thursday as the ridge axis is directly overhead, with some of our typically warmest locations observing highs in the low 90s. Otherwise little to no additional precipitation is expected besides a few showers this Thursday/Friday as a weak frontal boundary sweeps across the region.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 108 PM EDT Sat Jun 6 2026

Skies will continue to clear out through the rest of the afternoon with VFR conditions expected. Winds will continue to be from the northwest, breezes up to 20 KTs most locations, then decreasing into the overnight. Another round of BR/FG is possible, especially for the coastal terminals from KCIU down to KMBL. Definitely a little uncertain, but with high pressure location to the north, the potential is there for low CIGs and VSBYs. Any FG/low cloud will clear out quickly Sunday morning with dry conditions persisting. East to northeast winds expected for most on Sunday.

APX WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...None.