Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures gradually warming through Wednesday. The coldest temperatures will be tonight with low temperatures in the 20s.

- Maybe some strong storms on Thursday afternoon and night.

- Cooler temperatures are expected to end the work week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1219 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

This Afternoon through Wednesday

High pressure will gradually build across the area this afternoon and tonight. Northwest winds will gust into the 20 to 30 mph this afternoon and then as we gradually decouple and the pressure gradient relaxes, the winds will become light and variable overnight. High temperatures will gradually warm from the 40s this afternoon into mainly the 70s for Tuesday and Wednesday. Low temperatures will warm from the 20s tonight into the 30s and 40s by Tuesday night.

Thursday and Thursday Night

A 500 mb trough will move into the Central and Northern Plains. Southerly winds ahead of this system will bring low level moisture toward the region. There is still some uncertainty on how much moisture will move into the region. As a result, the Storm Prediction Center keeps their 15 percent risk south of the area. While that is the case, the Medium-Range Real-time AI Convective Hazards Forecasts have their convective risks further north and the probabilities are higher. We will have to watch how this evolves over the next several days. High temperatures on Thursday will be in the lower and mid-70s.

Friday into Saturday

The winds aloft will become more westerly at the surface and aloft in the wake of the Thursday night cold front. Temperatures will cool off into the 50s and 60s. With cold air and cyclonic flow aloft, there may be some scattered showers.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1219 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

In the wake of a shortwave trough, northwest winds will gust up to 25 knots this afternoon. The winds will decrease this evening and become light and variable overnight. Skies will be partly to mostly sunny this afternoon and mostly clear overnight.

HYDROLOGY

Issued at 1219 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

Along the Wisconsin River, the flooding has ended at Castle Rock Dam and moderate flooding was occurring at Muscoda. The moderate flooding at Muscoda will likely continue into Tuesday and then fall below flood stage on Thursday.

The Yellow River is producing minor flooding at Necedah. This should continue until Thursday.

There is still a Flood Watch for the Mississippi River at McGregor. The river may briefly reach the 16 foot flood stage on Tuesday.

With dry weather expected into Wednesday, we will continue to see river levels to continue to fall across the Upper Mississippi River Valley.

ARX WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

WI...None. MN...None. IA...None.