Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

- Continued below normal temperatures for today.

- Temperatures will average above normal Monday through Wednesday, along with mainly dry weather conditions.

- Active weather pattern is then favored Wednesday night and thereafter, with medium to high precipitation chances along with a cooling trend into next weekend.

UPDATE

Issued at 1248 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

Fair weather cu is becoming more widespread across the James River Valley and eastern North Dakota, while sunny skies continue across the west. Starting to see winds increase just a touch across the far west where the surface pressure gradient is tightening, further from the surface high.

UPDATE Issued at 946 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

This morning, surface high pressure was centered over eastern North Dakota and into Manitoba. Some low clouds are lingering in the James River Valley but otherwise mostly sunny skies prevail, which has helped patchy fog burn off across the northwest. No changes needed to the forecast with this update.

UPDATE Issued at 619 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

Surface high pressure continues to push south into the region, with a mostly clear sky and light winds to start the day. There were no major deviations from the inherited forecast.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 420 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

Currently, northwest flow aloft over the region with surface high pressure building south into North Dakota. Winds tapering off and becoming light and variable. Coupled with a mostly clear sky, temperatures on the chilly side again, dropping into the mid teens to mid 20s most places. Some morning fog as well northwest, which should quickly burn off after sunrise.

Highs today will be similar to Saturday, though with much less wind with sfc high pressure over eastern North Dakota/western Minnesota. A tad warmer west, where better return flow and some WAA will be. Flow aloft transitions to more quasi-zonal Monday and Tuesday, ramping up the warming trend and resulting in a dry weather forecast. Warmest day this week will be on Wednesday, when broad ridging amplifies over the Northern Plains ahead of a strong upper level trough developing into the western CONUS. Ahead of this trough, a lee side surface low strengthens, and results in strong southerly flow and WAA across the Dakotas. High temperatures into the low/mid 80s across the south are forecast, with 70s elsewhere. As south-southwest flow aloft develops and increases Wed aft into Wed night, shower and thunderstorm chances will increase over the Dakotas, with the better chances likely near the sfc trough axis.

The base of the western CONUS trough is then favored to lift northeast into the Northern Plains and morph into a closed low on Thursday, followed by another northern stream closed low developing into our region Friday and Saturday. Thus an active/wet and cooler weather pattern will end the work week and continue into the weekend. High temperatures in the 30s and 40s are forecast Fri-Sun, and lows this weekend in the 20s are likely. Given these forecast temperatures and the expected subfreezing air aloft moving south into the north central CONUS, current forecast has rain mixing with and turning into mainly snow Thursday night/Fri AM, with mainly snow as the precip type Fri into the weekend. Definitely too early to mention any snow/winter weather possible impacts, as much can change over the coming days. Will continue to watch model trends for this period.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1248 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

Overall VFR conditions expected through the 18Z TAF period, although some low VFR cumulus are ongoing in the James River Valley to start the period. Light and variable winds will become southerly and breezy overnight tonight, shifting to become more westerly late in the period.

BIS WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

None.