Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

- Highs in the mid 80s to mid 90s today. Becoming windy across western and central North Dakota.

- A Wind Advisory is in effect for portions of western and south central North Dakota south and west of the Missouri River this afternoon into this evening. - Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible over western and parts of north central North Dakota tonight.

- Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms over much of western and central North Dakota Late Sunday afternoon and Sunday night.

- Except for a brief break on Monday, a more active severe weather pattern looks to continue next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 1251 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

Winds continue to increase early this afternoon, with the Wind Advisory going into effect at the top of the hour. We are heating up as expected with noon temperatures in the 80s across the area. Going forecast looks good for the rest of the day.

UPDATE Issued at 922 AM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

The few showers that clipped the northwest corner of the state have since moved out, with 0.25 inches of rain reported at the NDAWN station near Fortuna but otherwise not much precipitation to speak of. Elsewhere across the forecast area, it is already warm and becoming breezy, with current temperatures in the 70s. No changes to the forecast with this update.

UPDATE Issued at 610 AM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

We added some pops to far northwest ND to account for the activity just clipping the far northwest portion of the state. We also added a couple hours of shower activity in the far south central where showers have developed in an area of warm advection. Otherwise no changes to the current forecast.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 250 AM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

An upper level low pressure system currently just of the coast of the Pacific Northwest will influence the weather over the Northern Plains this weekend.

Currently, upper level ridging downstream of the low is propagating across the forecast area. Skies were mostly clear across western and central ND as of 4 AM this morning. Back to hour west, surface low pressure was located over the northern High Plains of Wyoming and southeast Montana. North of the low, over northeast Montana, an area of scattered thunderstorms has developed within an area of warm advection combined with weak shortwave energy tracking through a broad southwest upper flow. This was noted yesterday and will monitor but may need to add some low pops over the far northwest early this morning.

One this passes, the daytime is expected to be dry. It will be hot, with an increasing southeast surface flow across the west and central. Areas to the south and west of the Missouri River look to have the greatest potential for Advisory level winds this afternoon. We have issued a Wind Advisory for this area, expecting sustained winds around 30 mph with gust to 45 mph. There are some indicating the strong winds may linger into the evening so we kept the advisory going through much of the evening as a very strong low level jet develops across western and central ND. If we lose the strong winds this evening, we can always cancel, but there was enough of a signal to keep it going beyond the loss of daytime heating.

Convection tonight will be the next concern in the west, and possibly into the north central late. There was little change in the new Day 1 SPC outlook, compared to yesterday's Day 2 outlook across western North Dakota. Convection is expected to develop over the High Plains of Wyoming and Montana today and track northeast. A surface trough is expected to extend from the surface low over southeast Montana, northeast into far northeast Montana at 00Z. Forecast soundings around Williston at this time indicate a very unstable but capped environment. There a few CAMs that do develop convection at this time. Given the forecast highs are in the mid 90s and if we exceed that, maybe we do get some convection trying to go. If convection would develop, we could get some rapid development with large hail possible. The consensus though is favoring later convection, behind the surface trough, skirting far northwest North Dakota. There are indications of higher end winds with DCAPE and 0-3km bulk shear, but the DCAPE is stronger earlier in the day, but wanes in the evening. 0-3km shear increases in the evening but becomes strongest possibly after convection moves through. Very steep lapse rates slowly diminish through the evening, but with a max remaining over far northeast MT into northwest ND, near the Missouri River on the Williams McKenzie county line. A very strong llj will also be developing in the evening, and a large hail parameter maximized over northeast Montana but poking into northwest ND in this same area. Although parameters done line up exactly, they are there. Outside of northwest ND, the parameters are not as impressive. Therefore we will stick with ping pong ball sized hail and up the winds to 70 mph for messaging, but limit this to northwest ND, pretty much within the Slight Risk area. The rest of western and north Central ND, we will mention 60 mph winds and quarter sized hail.

Sunday will be another day of isolated to scattered severe storms. A cold front moves into the state with a very moist and unstable airmass, but will be capped. The question whether there will be enough convergence along the front to initiate convection. If so bulk shear is not overly strong, but is trending to more perpendicular to the surface boundary. Thus supercells with very large hail would be favored. If convection hold off until later, bulk shear is then more parallel to the front and upscale growth into a linear system would be favored, with strong winds more of a threat than large hail. At this time, see no reason to change our current messaging of golf ball sized hail and 70 mph winds. It's entirely possible that we will see some changes as the convective mode reveals itself as we get close to Sunday. However, there's too much uncertainty at this time. Whatever does take place, things should clear out late with Monday being a mostly dry and cooler day. We then get right back into the swing of things as we warm up and ratchet up the convection again on Tuesday. SPC is still maintaining a slight risk for much of western and central ND on Tuesday.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1251 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

Generally VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. The main exception will be the potential for showers and thunderstorms at KXWA and northwest ND this evening, with a PROB30 group for this terminal. Expect gusty and erratic winds near any thunderstorms and IFR-MVFR visibilities with heavy rain associated with any storms. These storms could be severe.

Breezy to strong southeast winds will continue through much of the TAF period, strongest south and west of the Missouri River with sustained winds around 30 mph and gusts up to 45 mph. Southeast winds diminish some tonight but strong southerly winds aloft will necessitate a mention of LLWS at all TAF sites except KXWA. Late in the TAF period, winds start to shift northwesterly across far western North Dakota.

BIS WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

Wind Advisory until midnight CDT /11 PM MDT/ tonight for NDZ017>020-031>033-040>044-059>062.