Area Forecast Discussion

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Increased wind gusts across the region.

Severe weather risk has decreased across the region.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Gusty west-southwest winds will continue across the region today.

2) Showers and thunderstorms for some areas today, with localized heavy downpours and an isolated severe weather risk.

3) Mainly dry weather returns Sunday through early next week with warm temperatures.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Gusty west-southwest winds will continue across the region today.

A 40-50 knot low level jet will continue to move across the region through this evening. Daytime mixing and clearing have supported wind gusts 40-50 mph, with the strongest gusts along the Lake Erie shoreline to the Niagara Frontier this morning. As winds aloft veer, gusts will diminish across far western NY, while increasing across the Finger Lakes region and east of Lake Ontario through the late afternoon. Gusts up to 30-40 mph are expected along the Lake Ontario shoreline

KEY MESSAGE 2...Showers and thunderstorms for some areas today, with localized heavy downpours and an isolated severe weather risk.

A mid level trough is moving across the eastern Great Lakes region, while an area of low pressure moves across eastern Ontario to southern Quebec through tonight. A cold front extends south across southern Ontario to southern Michigan. A strong southwest flow across the Lower Great Lakes has stabilized a majority of western NY this afternoon. Lake breeze boundaries are located near the Pennsylvania border and the Niagara Frontier to Lake Ontario this afternoon. Destabilization has formed across the region SBCAPE 1-1.5 J/kg across the Southern Tier into the Finger Lakes region, and less than 1 K/Jg elsewhere. Showers and thunderstorms are become numerous in Pennsylvania with showers just clipping southern Allegany county this afternoon. There remains a low risk of a severe thunderstorm near the Pennsylvania border today.

Cloudy weather has persisted east of Lake Ontario for much of the day, however clearing is expected this afternoon. As instability grows inland from Lake Ontario, showers and thunderstorms are possible along the cold front or lake breeze boundary through this evening. Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible with damaging winds as the main threat. Additional showers and thunderstorms are possible across the North Country as the low moves north of the region.

Showers will exit the North Country this evening. Dry weather is expected across the forecast area late tonight into Sunday. Patchy fog is possible across valley locations of the Southern Tier.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Mainly dry weather returns Sunday through early next week with warm temperatures.

A mid-level trough will move across the Northeast Sunday then depart to the east. A ridge will build into the Great Lakes region and move east across the eastern Great Lakes region through the start of the work week. Dry weather is expected with day to day warming. A mid level trough and plume of deeper moisture over the Ohio Valley may move far enough east to bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms again by mid week.

AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Gusty southwest winds will continue across the region this afternoon, with the strongest wind gusts along the Lake Erie shoreline to the Niagara Frontier today. Gusts will peak across western NY through the early afternoon hours, with the strongest winds occurring where it has cleared out. Gusty southwest winds will pick up east of Lake Ontario late this afternoon.

Destabilization outside of lake breezes will support a chance of showers and thunderstorms through this evening. Flight conditions will lower to low-end VFR/MVFR ahead an approach cold front with widespread MVFR CIGS developing across the western Southern Tier and North Country today. Some thunderstorms may produce locally strong wind gusts. A few rounds of showers and thunderstorms are possible across KART through this evening as low pressure moves north of the region. Mostly dry weather is expected across western NY tonight through Sunday.

Outlook...

Sunday...Mainly MVFR/VFR. Localized IFR in any showers and thunderstorms east of Lake Ontario.

Monday and Tuesday...VFR.

Wednesday and Thursday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Localized lower flight CATs within any heavier showers or storms.

MARINE

An area of low pressure will move east across southern Ontario, reaching southern Quebec this evening. Breezy southwesterlies will become west behind a cold front this evening. Small Craft Advisories are in effect on the eastern end of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon through early evening. A few storms could produce locally strong winds and high waves.

Westerly winds will remain elevated on Lake Ontario, especially the eastern end through Sunday. While winds and waves will be below small craft thresholds, choppy conditions are expected. Light winds and gentle waves are expected on Lake Erie late tonight through Sunday.

The outlook shows light winds and gentle waves for the start of the work week.

BUF WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

NY...Beach Hazards Statement until 6 PM EDT this evening for NYZ019- 085. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LEZ020- 040-041. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LOZ042-043. Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for LOZ044- 045.