Area Forecast Discussion

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes to the forecast. Updated aviation discussion for the 06z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1. Fire Weather concerns remain elevated through the end of this week as drought conditions persist amid a dry airmass.

- 2. A gradual pattern change is expected late in the forecast period, with increasing rain chances this weekend.

DISCUSSION

Key Message 1: Fire Weather concerns remain elevated through the end of this week as drought conditions persist amid a dry airmass.

Elevated fire weather concerns continue this week as a dry air mass settles over the region with much of the area in severe to extreme drought. While winds will be generally limited with high pressure ridging into the area, high probability of relative humidity dropping below 30 percent each afternoon through Friday. This will make conditions susceptible to increased fire starts. Winds may be a bit stronger Wednesday and Friday as surface boundaries approach the area and these days may require Fire Danger Statements. Regardless of the issuance of these statements, the SC Forestry Commission continues a Burn Ban for South Carolina until further notice.

Key Message 2: A gradual pattern change is expected late in the forecast period, with increasing rain chances this weekend.

The highly amplified 500mb pattern over the CONUS that has persisted the last several weeks will begin to breakdown this weekend as a more progressive pattern takes place. This will lead to several shortwaves working through the forecast area this weekend into early next week. With ensemble mean PWATs generally rising to 125 to 150 percent of normal, this favors increasing chances for rain this weekend. We will still likely have a ways to go to break the drought as only a couple GEFS members have greater than an inch of rain through Monday (and we will need more than that). The longer term pattern favors a more active (wetter) pattern through the end of the month and into early May with teleconections such as the NAO, favoring general troughing over the eastern CONUS.

AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

VFR conditions expected through the TAF period.

Dry high pressure remains, keeping light winds and clear skies across the region through the morning. Winds will turn out of the northeast once the inversion mixes out, with a few gusts up to 10 knots. A weak dry front will pass through the area late this afternoon, turning winds more out of the southeast. Only some scattered upper level cloud expected during the TAF period.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...No widespread restrictions expected through Friday.

CAE WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

SC...None. GA...None.