Area Forecast Discussion

WHAT HAS CHANGED

- Removed chance for thunder on Sunday.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Widespread rain showers continue tonight through Sunday.

2) Well above normal temperatures, as high as 10 to 15 degrees above average, expected Tuesday through late week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Widespread rain showers continue tonight through Sunday.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... The open wave surface low is currently positioned in southern Ontario and continues to move eastward toward our CWA this evening. A warm front will lift northwards through the region this evening, bringing numerous to widespread showers throughout the forecast area. A brief pause is in store after around midnight tonight as the warm sector crosses the region, though rain showers may continue across the north, contributing to higher rainfall totals throughout Aroostook county with storm total QPF of at least half an inch.

The cold front associated with this low pressure will then follow into the day on Sunday, bringing another round of widespread showers through the forecast area from west to east. Precip will quickly end behind this boundary, with rain ending Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening.

With increasing low level inversion strength and decreasing trends in CAPE for northern and eastern Maine, have limited thunder threat through this afternoon and evening, and have removed thunder chances for Sunday, as this lack of instability will not be able to support any convective development.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Well above normal temperatures, as high as 10 to 15 degrees above average, expected Tuesday through late week.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... High pressure builds in behind the cold front exiting the area Sunday night which will lead to dry weather, mostly sunny skies, and warming temperatures throughout much of the the week. Temperatures will be around average on Monday before beginning to warm on Tuesday and remaining hot through late week. Temperatures likely to peak at around 10 to 15 degrees above normal with the highest temperatures currently expected towards the end of the week.

AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Tonight...IFR in showers and low stratus. S winds 5-10kts early, becoming light/vrb late. Brief LLWS possible at KBGR/KBHB and coastal terminals from around 00z to 06z tonight.

Sunday...MVFR/IFR in showers, improving to VFR from north to south late. N winds 5-15 kts, gusting 20-25 kts.

Sunday night - Wednesday...VFR across all terminals. N/NW winds 5 to 10 kts, becoming light and variable each night.

Thursday...VFR at northern terminals, cigs trending towards MVFR/IFR from GNR/MLT south as rain moves in. SSE winds 5 to 10 kts with gusts to 20 kts possible around KBGR.

MARINE

Generally below small craft advisory conditions on the coastal and intracoastal waters through Thursday. Brief gusts to 25 kts on the coastal waters possible Sunday night.

CAR WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

ME...None. MARINE...None.