Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 128 AM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

- Showers and a few thunderstorms through Tuesday (through Wednesday AM in the Victoria Crossroads).

- Minor Coastal Flooding possible this week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 128 AM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

We're starting to turn the corner toward the end of this rain event, but the forecast for tonight into tomorrow is just as muddy as it has been. A low and mid-level shortwave moving through the area tonight should bring showers and storms to the region...but current model trends suggest otherwise! Have lowered PoPs a bit for the overnight hours, but will keep generally 30-40% across the area. By tomorrow afternoon most of the lingering convection will be moving off to the northeast with the best chances for rain in the afternoon around the Victoria Crossroads. We've seen an area wide rainfall average around 1 inch for the past few days and we'll couple see a few more tense everywhere, with more than a half an inch still possible in the Victoria Crossroads. That said, confidence isn't great in the overall picture for the next 24 hours as it seems to be running out of it's own playbook today.

Temperatures will be on the increase (and in fact, already are. Temperatures have been on a very slow climb late tonight in the east, and could continue to go up a couple of degrees through the rest of tonight. Expect highs in the 80s west Tuesday where the layer begins drying out more quickly. 70s are expected east. Continued warming will stay with us through the end of the week when well above normal temperatures return.

We continue to see minor coastal flooding along Gulf facing beaches, especially around high tide times. This will likely persist through the middle of the week.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 128 AM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

Poor aviation conditions will continue through this period. Showers will continue off and on through the cycle for eastern sites with a few thunderstorms possible for VCT (though probabilities are too low to include in the TAFs at this time). Mainly a mix of MVFR/IFR conditions are expected through at least mid-day Tuesday. However, some variability is expected, especially for VCT which is forecast to experience temporary VFR conditions for the next few hours. Winds will be a mixed bag, though generally light and out of the east- southeast for most of the cycle.

MARINE

Issued at 128 AM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

A mainly gentle to moderate onshore flow will persist through the week as high pressure builds over the area. Rain chances continue through Wednesday before drier conditions return later in the week.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 128 AM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

Scattered showers and an isolated thunderstorm remain in the forecast tomorrow, and for the east Wednesday as well. RH values will remain elevated through the period and winds remain below critical fire concern levels.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

CRP WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ345- 442-443-447.

GM...None.