Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated to scattered storms are expected this afternoon and evening, with more likely shower and storm chances expected to increase from the south late tonight through Sunday night (70-90% chances at their peak Sunday afternoon and evening).

- Additional chances (20-50%) of showers/storms will continue into the early part of the work week next week.

- Warmer and more humid conditions will return for mid-week next week, with heat indices rising to the 90s to near 100 degrees across the area for at least a few days.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 159 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

Some isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon as a cut-off upper-level low continues to lift northeastward from the TX Panhandle region, which can already be seen on local radar at 2 PM/19z this afternoon. Ahead of the upper low, an area of positive-vorticity advection and upper- level diffluence will develop over the area along with warm air advection will provide ample large scale forcing for convection to develop once again for portions of the region. There remains some uncertainty regarding the exact coverage of the convection this afternoon, but the most likely locations to see storms will be along and north of the Highway 36 corridor. Any storms that fire off in this environment could become strong to severe, given ample surface- based instability, with the 06.12z HREF and REFS ensembles suggesting magnitudes around 2000 to 3000 J/kg. However, a lack of robust deep- layer shear (values less than 20 knots) should help support more pulsey convection. Still, with DCAPE values around 1000 J/kg per the latest RAP/SPC mesoanalysis, and very high Pwats between 1.5 to 1.8", some locally stronger wind gusts are possible, and SPC continues to have our north-central and northeastern CWA in a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe storms today. Mid- level lapse rates appear to be quite flat, so thinking that any hail that develops would be small.

As we look to tonight through the day Sunday, the weather pattern will remain active as the aforementioned upper-level low slowly approaches our area, with persistent theta-e advection. We will have continued off-and-on showers and storms throughout the day, with gradually increasing Pwat values approaching the 2" mark! These values would be anomalously high for this time of the year per the NAEFS ensemble, with values near the 99% of climatology. With that said, it appears that heavy rainfall and perhaps some flash flooding will be of greater concern than severe weather, given a very weak shear profile. WPC continues to have our entire area under a Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) for excessive rainfall, and this prolonged period of rainfall could exacerbate ongoing hydro issues. Much will depend on the coverage and location of rainfall as the soils over our northern areas remain more saturated than our southern areas. With that said, we considered issuing another Flood Watch, but held off for now due to the uncertainty of rainfall coverage. This will be something to monitor closely.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 159 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

The work week starts off with continued chances (20-50%) of showers and storms Monday as a surface low takes shape over the eastern Rockies via lee cyclogenesis and translates over the OK Panhandle region by Monday morning per the latest GEFS and EC ensembles, placing us once again in a warm air advection regime. Ample instability and steep mid-level lapse rates around 7-8 C/km could support some stronger convection Monday afternoon and evening, but how things evolve will be conditional due to how prior convection augments the meteorological environment.

Attention then turns to building heat and humidity for mid-week as large upper-level ridging strengthens over the central CONUS. Increasing Gulf moisture from anti-cyclonic flow around mid-level ridging over the southeastern US will help boost the humidity values, with dew points increasing to the middle to upper 70s across the area. With high temperatures expected to warm to the lower 90s over most locations, this will result in very muggy conditions and dangerous heat index values rising to the upper 90s to lower 100s. The latest LREF ensemble suggests 50 to 70% exceedance probabilities of heat indices 95 degrees F or warmer, so confidence is decently high for conditions to be quite sticky. Heat headlines may be needed. While the forecast remains largely dry for Tuesday through Thursday, there is an outside chance of showers and storms popping up during this time frame at times due to a few passing shortwaves Tuesday and Wednesday nights.

As we look towards the latter part of the week, relief from the heat looks to come as a cold front is progged in many of the model guidance to move through the area, with some chances of showers and storms. However, there are significant timing differences with the front, so it's uncertain on the exact fropa timing, but consensus blends do favor lower dew points compared to mid-week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1245 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

A mix of VFR to MVFR conditions were seen over the area early this afternoon, with a daytime cumulus field developing over most of the area. The expectation is for locations that are MVFR the ceilings should lift this afternoon, leading to improving flight conditions. Attention then turns to periodic chances of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon into Sunday. Coverage of this activity appears to be more isolated to scattered in nature this afternoon and evening before becoming more widespread late tonight into Sunday. A low-level inversion and humid air mass should support lowering ceilings late tonight into Sunday morning, falling as low as IFR. MVFR visibility reductions are also likely with any thunderstorm that form. South to southeast winds will persist, remaining around 5 to 10 knots.

EAX WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.