Letterhead and timestamp
000 FXUS64 KEPZ 191730 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 1130 AM MDT Sun Apr 19 2026...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 1130 AM MDT Sun Apr 19 2026
- Slight chance of rain showers through this evening. Isolated lowland and scattered mountain showers and thunderstorms on Monday.
- Dry southwest flow remainder of the week producing breezy to windy afternoons and above normal temperatures.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 1130 AM MDT Sun Apr 19 2026
A very slow progressing synoptic pattern across the country over the upcoming week. Currently an upper level ridge is located from near the ID/MT border region southeast into our far eastern zones. This ridge axis finally gets east of the Rockies by late Tue. The CWA will remain in a low level east to southeast surface flow with weak southwest flow aloft through Monday before starting to get more into deeper westerlies starting Tue. A couple of upper disturbances will move from SW to NE over the area this evening and again Monday and bring some isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. Better coverage looks Monday as the low levels are currently very dry over the area with dew points in the teens but some increased moisture and some instability will help for tomorrow. Didn't stray too far from NBM PoPs with generally isolated over the lowlands and scattered in the mountains. Focus will be over NE half of area. Some areas will have 500-1000J/kg CAPE, but shear is weak so expecting maybe a couple stronger storms with some small hail but severe storms do not look too likely. Temperatures will be near normal through Monday.
As we get into Tue and into the end of the week, the region comes under a more zonal to WSW flow aloft and winds at the surface will be doing the same. It is April and there will also be a mean lee trough/low which will bring breezy to windy conditions daily starting Wed. At this point, Fri looks like the windiest day, although no one day really stands out. Not expecting any wind highlights, but some patchy dust could be picked up. Temperatures will warm up into the 80s for the lowlands with RH's falling to around 10%, so fire weather will be a concern.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1130 AM MDT Sun Apr 19 2026
P6SM FEW-SCT060-080 SCT-BKN200-250 through much of the period. Some isolated showers will be moving out of Mexico in the late afternoon and move across the area into the early evening. Not confident in much rain hitting the ground and little to no lightning expected, so left mention(even VCSH) out of all terminals. There could be some gusty winds with these showers however. Winds will start out E to SE with gusts over 20KTS at all sites but will decrease after sunset to AOB 12KTS except near the AZ border where 10-20KTS are expected to continue until after 06Z.
FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 1130 AM MDT Sun Apr 19 2026
Increasing moisture from the southeast will keep RH's well above critical thresholds through Monday but drier air starts moving into the west on Tue and areawide by Wed. A few showers and thunderstorms tonight and moreso Monday with the main focus northern and eastern areas. Winds will be light Mon/Tue but starting Wed, expect daily breezy to windy conditions to develop. Generally 15-25G35mph each day, so some critical areas are possible, especially as we get into Thu/Fri. Temperatures will be near normal through Monday but by Tue will be running about 5 degrees above normal.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
| Temperatures | Chance of precipitation | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Location | Tonight | Tomorrow | Tomorrow night | Next day | Tonight | Tomorrow | Tomorrow night | Next day |
| El Paso | 52 ℉ | 80 ℉ | 56 ℉ | 86 ℉ | 20% | 20% | 20% | 10% |
| Sierra Blanca | 46 ℉ | 75 ℉ | 48 ℉ | 80 ℉ | 30% | 50% | 30% | 20% |
| Las Cruces | 45 ℉ | 78 ℉ | 50 ℉ | 83 ℉ | 20% | 20% | 10% | 10% |
| Alamogordo | 44 ℉ | 78 ℉ | 49 ℉ | 83 ℉ | 20% | 40% | 20% | 10% |
| Cloudcroft | 35 ℉ | 56 ℉ | 38 ℉ | 60 ℉ | 30% | 40% | 30% | 20% |
| Truth or Consequences | 48 ℉ | 77 ℉ | 52 ℉ | 82 ℉ | 10% | 40% | 10% | 10% |
| Silver City | 44 ℉ | 73 ℉ | 47 ℉ | 77 ℉ | 10% | 30% | 10% | 10% |
| Deming | 43 ℉ | 81 ℉ | 48 ℉ | 85 ℉ | 20% | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Lordsburg | 49 ℉ | 79 ℉ | 50 ℉ | 83 ℉ | 10% | 10% | 0% | 0% |
| West El Paso Metro | 53 ℉ | 79 ℉ | 56 ℉ | 86 ℉ | 20% | 20% | 20% | 10% |
| Dell City | 46 ℉ | 78 ℉ | 47 ℉ | 85 ℉ | 30% | 20% | 10% | 10% |
| Fort Hancock | 50 ℉ | 82 ℉ | 54 ℉ | 88 ℉ | 30% | 40% | 20% | 20% |
| Loma Linda | 45 ℉ | 74 ℉ | 52 ℉ | 79 ℉ | 30% | 30% | 20% | 10% |
| Fabens | 51 ℉ | 81 ℉ | 55 ℉ | 87 ℉ | 20% | 20% | 20% | 10% |
| Santa Teresa | 49 ℉ | 78 ℉ | 53 ℉ | 84 ℉ | 20% | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| White Sands HQ | 50 ℉ | 80 ℉ | 55 ℉ | 85 ℉ | 20% | 20% | 20% | 10% |
| Jornada Range | 43 ℉ | 79 ℉ | 45 ℉ | 84 ℉ | 20% | 30% | 10% | 10% |
| Hatch | 47 ℉ | 82 ℉ | 47 ℉ | 87 ℉ | 10% | 30% | 10% | 10% |
| Columbus | 50 ℉ | 82 ℉ | 54 ℉ | 87 ℉ | 20% | 10% | 0% | 10% |
| Orogrande | 47 ℉ | 78 ℉ | 50 ℉ | 83 ℉ | 20% | 30% | 20% | 10% |
| Mayhill | 38 ℉ | 67 ℉ | 44 ℉ | 72 ℉ | 30% | 40% | 20% | 20% |
| Mescalero | 36 ℉ | 68 ℉ | 41 ℉ | 72 ℉ | 20% | 50% | 20% | 20% |
| Timberon | 35 ℉ | 65 ℉ | 41 ℉ | 69 ℉ | 30% | 50% | 20% | 20% |
| Winston | 38 ℉ | 70 ℉ | 40 ℉ | 76 ℉ | 10% | 50% | 10% | 10% |
| Hillsboro | 47 ℉ | 76 ℉ | 50 ℉ | 82 ℉ | 20% | 40% | 10% | 10% |
| Spaceport | 44 ℉ | 78 ℉ | 46 ℉ | 84 ℉ | 20% | 30% | 10% | 10% |
| Lake Roberts | 41 ℉ | 73 ℉ | 43 ℉ | 77 ℉ | 10% | 40% | 10% | 10% |
| Hurley | 41 ℉ | 75 ℉ | 45 ℉ | 80 ℉ | 10% | 30% | 0% | 10% |
| Cliff | 44 ℉ | 80 ℉ | 46 ℉ | 81 ℉ | 10% | 30% | 0% | 0% |
| Mule Creek | 43 ℉ | 76 ℉ | 45 ℉ | 79 ℉ | 10% | 20% | 0% | 0% |
| Faywood | 44 ℉ | 75 ℉ | 48 ℉ | 79 ℉ | 10% | 20% | 10% | 10% |
| Animas | 47 ℉ | 81 ℉ | 49 ℉ | 84 ℉ | 10% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Hachita | 45 ℉ | 79 ℉ | 47 ℉ | 84 ℉ | 10% | 10% | 0% | 0% |
| Antelope Wells | 46 ℉ | 81 ℉ | 50 ℉ | 84 ℉ | 10% | 10% | 0% | 0% |
| Cloverdale | 46 ℉ | 76 ℉ | 52 ℉ | 78 ℉ | 10% | 10% | 0% | 0% |
EPZ WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES
TX...None. NM...None.
FORECASTER...26-Grzywacz