Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1155 PM MDT Thu Jun 4 2026

- The Sacramento Mountains will see isolated showers and storms this afternoon; dry elsewhere.

- Drier and hotter Sunday into next week with many lowland areas seeing their first 100 degree days of the season.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1155 AM MDT Sat Jun 6 2026

The slow-moving UL low that has given our area thunderstorms the past few days is over West Texas and will continue pushing northeastward. The low's exit means height rises and increasingly dry air throughout the column, which will all but end our chances for thunderstorms. The exception will be across the Sacramento Mountains this afternoon where enough moisture will linger to foster isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Our weather will come under the influence of a building ridge for Sunday and Monday. Initially it will position itself over NM before translating and stalling over the Southern Plains. Temperatures will climb as a result with many lowland locations expected to see their first 100 degree day by Sunday or Monday. A trough will cut into this ridge for Tuesday. Moisture will be circulating around the subtropical ridge, so the combination of moisture and the trough passage will bring low rain/storm chances to our mountains.

By Wednesday, we'll be within westerly flow as the long-wave trough stalls over the Western CONUS. The w'ly flow will flush out moisture (although it will be lingering just to our south) and send our temperatures higher. MEX guidance has 105 for El Paso on Wednesday, which is heat advisory territory.

The subtropical ridge will begin to rebuild toward the end of next week, from our south though the Euro and GFS disagree on its intensity. As I mentioned, moisture will be lingering to our south as well, and the high will start dragging that moisture north with it. The GFS is rather bullish for precip Friday night, but for now the NBM has POPs limited to the Sacs. Given time of year and even the pattern within the GFS (lack of clear forcing), a drier solution is likely more reasonable.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1155 AM MDT Sat Jun 6 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the period with FEW(100-150)/250. Winds will top out between 10 to 15 knots with occasional gusts up to 25 knots. Direction will largely be from the south or southwest this afternoon favoring more northwesterly after dark.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1155 AM MDT Sat Jun 6 2026

Drier air is moving in from the west this afternoon, which will end thunderstorm chances while also dropping afternoon min RH values into the lower teens and upper single-digits. For this afternoon, isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected over the Sacramento Mountains, but it will be dry elsewhere. Winds will top out around 10 MPH with excellent venting west of the Rio Grande and good venting east of the River.

Dry air completely takes over the forecast area on Sunday with min RH values near 10%. Highs will climb to near 100. Winds will be light while venting ranges very good to excellent. This pattern will remain in place for the next several days though with very slow moisture gains next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

EPZ WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.