Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain to retreat south this afternoon with dry air building into most areas; light showers to remain possible south of Highway 90/I-10.

- Rain and storms to rebound north again late this evening with rain likely Monday and likely again for the eastern two-thirds of the area Tuesday.

- Cool weather continues into Tuesday with near normal temperatures Wednesday and a warming trend for late week.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Monday night) Issued at 1236 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

Regional radar imagery shows ongoing showers over the Coastal Prairies and along and south of the I-10/Highway 90 corridor. With winds swinging back around out of the east and east/southeast this afternoon and will result in continued cloudy skies and cooler temperatures. Weak shortwave ridging this afternoon over the eastern CWA will slide eastward by tomorrow morning, as a shortwave slides in from the west along the Rio Grande. This will result in additional overrunning and development of widespread showers over the Rio Grande Plains initially late tonight, followed by eastward progression into the I-35 Corridor and Hill Country by daybreak Monday. The QPF forecast may be a bit generous but even the HREF PMM 24 hour accumulation calls for between 1-2 inches over a good chunk of the region Monday. Despite cooler temperatures in the upper 50s to middle 60s and little sunshine, we may hear a few rumbles of thunder within some elevated activity towards evening over the Rio Grande.

On Tuesday, temperatures will remain on the cool side with no breaks in cloud cover expected and our overrunning/isentropic lift type pattern continuing. Widespread showers and occasional thunderstorms will continue, primarily over the eastern 2/3rds of the region as shortwave ridging develops out west, limiting rain potential. Rainfall amounts could exceed 1 inch in some locations, particularly along the I-35 Corridor and into the Coastal Plains. |

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through next Sunday) Issued at 1236 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

Wednesday will see the last bit of rain with this event as rains push east. Thursday and Friday look to be "quieter" however, there is still a low end chance for some rains both days as weak zonal flow and subtleties in the mid-level flow could result in some additional lift and weak showers. The weekend looks active once again as a trough deepens over the western CONUS and southwest flow ramps up. Thunderstorms appear possible Saturday and again Sunday given the setup in place.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1221 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

A wide cloud deck with mainly FL040-FL060 CIGs extends along and south of KDRT to KSAT to KT20 line with scattered -RA. This should expand north today and tonight. Some models show emergent TSRA beginning 21Z near KUVA/KPEZ beginning 21Z, but coverage and confidence was too low to include a mention for TAF terminals. CIGs are expected to lower to at least MVFR and IFR CIGs regionwide overnight, but there is significant disagreement between statistical aids and hi-res models in depictions of CIGs, with the former more bullish with low CIGs. Have leaned towards the statistical aids for the 18Z TAFs given low-level moisture and likely -RA to bring down CIGs, with higher confidence at KDRT. Expect some VIS reductions accompanying -RA. The CIG forecast after 12Z is relatively uncertain as -RA shifts north and east. A gradual shift to east winds is ongoing throughout the region and should persist Monday, subject to typical diurnal variations.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

EWX WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

None.