Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

- A Red Flag Warning is in effect for most of the area for the remainder of the afternoon today, and a Fire Weather Watch has been issued for northeast Georgia for Monday afternoon and evening.

- Critical fire weather conditions are likely each afternoon this week.

- Temperatures initially cooler behind this morning's front will continue to warm through the week.

- Chances for showers and thunderstorms return Saturday and Sunday.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Monday) Issued at 241 PM EDT Sun Apr 19 2026

With north and central Georgia solidly post-frontal, a steady stream of dry, northwesterly flow at the mid-levels and yet another surface high pressure system will support continued clearing and drying in the wake of this morning's scant rainfall totals (generally <0.25"). Today will be breezy (gusts to 20 to 30 mph), with wind gradually tapering off into the afternoon as the surface pressure gradient slackens. Unfortunately, this morning's rainfall will have little-to- no effect on 1) our ongoing drought conditions and 2) our persistent fire weather concerns. Fine fuels are expected to quickly dry back out, and dewpoints will tank into the afternoon (upper 20s to 30s, compared to the 50s yesterday). A Red Flag Warning is in effect until 8PM this evening for most of north and central Georgia due to the combination of gusty winds, low relative humidity, and dry fuels. Highs will swing far cooler this afternoon as cool, dry air filters in on the back end of the front, topping out in the mid-60s to mid-70s (perhaps 80 for our far southeastern tier -- as much as a 15 to 20 degree decrease from yesterday's highs!).

Lows tonight will be chilly compared to the balmy past couple of mornings, dropping into the 40s -- and possibly even the upper 30s for areas in northeast Georgia at elevation.

A gradual return to unseasonable warmth will commence starting on Monday, with highs expected to rise into the mid-to-upper 70s to near 80 under clear skies. Low-end gusts to 20 to 25 mph will filter back in tomorrow afternoon, sufficient when combined with relative humidity in the 25 to 30 percent range to introduce the potential for critical fire weather conditions for portions of northeast Georgia tomorrow afternoon. A Fire Weather Watch has been issued for Monday afternoon and evening -- further upgrade to a Red Flag Warning is possible. Fire Danger Statement issuance is likely for the remainder of the forecast area tomorrow as relative humidity values drop into the teens to lower 20s.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday morning through next Saturday) Issued at 241 PM EDT Sun Apr 19 2026

The main concern for the long term will be continued fire weather concerns. Rainfall amounts from the front were not enough to improve fuels by too much in this area which will result in continued days of dry fuels and low relative humidity values. Pushing into Tuesday the high pressure begins to build back into the area which will result in slackening winds but with significant dry air in the area, high fire danger continues. Minimum relative humidities will range from 20-30% across north and central Georgia through at least Friday, so fire danger statements are likely each day. Please continue to monitor your local area burn bans.

Temperatures Tuesday will begin to rebound into the low 80s across the area and continue to warm to the mid 80s through at least Friday keeping our area ~10 degrees above normal. Taking a look into the longer range models, there are indications that the area could be entering a wetter pattern into next weekend. An area of low pressure begins to approach the area late week with a front likely to push through the area on Saturday into Sunday. Latest runs of the GEFS show rainfall reaching past northwest Georgia during this time frame. Probabilities for severe weather are currently low but with increased PWATs there are indications that we may get more rainfall than with this last system. Projected PWATS are currently forecasted to range from 1.5-1.85" which is definitely putting our area above average. Too soon to talk about amounts but any rainfall helps with the ongoing drought.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 136 PM EDT Sun Apr 19 2026

VFR conds to continue thru the TAF pd with further clearing to SKC expected by 02-03Z areawide. Winds will favor the NNW at 8-14kts this aftn with gusts to 20-25kts gradually tapering off into the evening. On Monday, isolated low-end gusts to 18-20kts are psbl, but speeds will generally be 5-10kts. Brief periods of due N/perhaps NNE winds are psbl today and tomorrow afternoon.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update... Medium confidence wind direction. High confidence all other elements.

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PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

FFC WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ001>009- 011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>061-066>073-078>084-089>096- 102>108.

Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening for GAZ006>009-013>016-021>025-027-034-035.