Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry weather and seasonal temperatures continue today.

- Daily afternoon showers and thunderstorm chances return Sunday continue through most of next week.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Sunday) Issued at 205 PM EDT Sat Jun 6 2026

One more dry day before rain chances return this weekend. A highly amplified upper level NW flow will turn W through Sunday. Divergent flow and an ejecting cut-off low off the rockies will bring mid level vorticity across the southeast. As the upper level flow shifts eastward, the Bermuda high weakens over the southeast allowing more effect moisture transport out of the south. PWATs climb as much as 1 inch (bringing us over 1.5" with >90% confidence) through Sunday afternoon across western GA. Showers and a few thunderstorms in northwest GA could begin as early as late Sunday morning and continue into the evening. Another quick wave, and retreat of the Bermuda high, will bring rain and thunderstorm chances to north and northwest GA Monday morning into Tuesday as well. Instability will be fairly weak. The 25th-75th range for SFC CAPE sits between 250J/Kg and 750J/Kg, enough to generate some lightning but no widespread severe. Cloud coverage and convection timing will be important to how much destabilization actually occurs. Total rainfall amounts could be spotty with amounts generally of about 0.1-0.5 inches in northwest GA (lighter to trace amounts possible into the metro and the I-85 corridor; little to no precip in east-central GA). Some isolated pockets of up to 1 inch are possible by Sunday evening. More rainfall likely through the beginning of the week.

Temperatures remain near normal with highs in the 80s and lows in the 60s to near 70 each day.

LONG TERM

(Monday morning through next Friday) Issued at 205 PM EDT Sat Jun 6 2026

We pick up Monday in the long term with model guidance showing decent chances of storms in the CWA with the highest chances across western and northern Georgia. High PWAT air is back bringing the air you can wear to us all once again. PWATs are forecast to be well above 2" across much of the area. Some interesting things are happening aloft. Going up to the dynamic tropopause offers some insight - a subtropical wave break squeezes a cut off low PV system over the 4 corners and Texas which pushes it towards us. This creates some light forcing via differential vorticity advection and we see some very slight cooling of the upper levels across north Georgia that may provide the initial push for some storm development that could occur as early as the morning hours across north Georgia given the very deep moisture in place. Little shear means these will likely be pulse storms in nature, but outflows may help initiate new convection through the afternoon and evening hours further east and south.

Tuesday looks like it may be similarly wet as the upper level system sticks around the area and provides for increased rain chances that again could get an early morning start across the CWA. Widespread showers and storms are expected. Cloud cover and rain chances keep temperatures both Monday and Tuesday in the low to mid 80s for most (could be a bit higher in east central Georgia which may be more removed from best rain chances and cloud cover). By Wednesday we will be monitoring to see just how far south a weak front can make it towards the CWA, which may elevate rain and t-storm chances across northern Georgia before it stalls as the attendant surface low moves well off the NE Atlantic shore. For the rest of the long term, diurnally driven storms look to be what is on tap given copious moisture that is expected to remain across the area.

Now we come to the discussion we have to have given it keeps showing up in the guidance. Yep, it's tropical season. Sigh. As a bit of a lead up, the CAG (Central American Gyre) is expected to get going into the middle of next week. These are known for having the potential to spin up tropical systems early in the season, whether it be via the gyre itself or bits of vorticity that can spin off it and develop on their own. We've seen the GFS/GEFS start buying in a bit into the idea that one of these will spin off on the north side and become a bit of an open tropical wave before moving into the Gulf by the end of next week. That system slowly develops across various ensembles into at least a weak tropical system, though where it goes is highly uncertain given the very weak steering currents in place. Adding to the uncertainty is the potential development of a system on the Pacific side, which could have big implications on the potential track of the open wave and eventual system via the latent heat pumping out of the system into the subtropical ridge. So, with all that said - the Gulf should be watched going into next weekend, but it is far, far too early to be concerned, as there are is simply too much uncertainty around what development - if any - even looks like.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 123 PM EDT Sat Jun 6 2026

VFR cigs and vsby through most of the period. Winds generally S to SW at 3 to 7 kts may briefly flip SSE through aftn, becoming light to vrb overnight. MVFR to low VFR cigs develop Sunday morning and remain through the day as bkn-sct cu field.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update... High confidence all elements.

SM

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

FFC WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

None.