Area Forecast Discussion

SYNOPSIS

Warmer weather arrives today and continues through Tuesday with cooler temperatures returning for the rest of the week. Isolated showers are possible Sunday and Monday and across far northern Arizona on Wednesday. Expect gusty southwest winds on Tuesday and Wednesday.

DISCUSSION

A weak ridge will remain across the Desert Southwest through Monday, bringing breezy southerly winds to the region. Moisture will gradually increase in the southerly flow but with a lack of instability and shear today, we won't see much outside of a few isolated high-based showers along the higher terrain. As the moisture and lift increase on Monday, we should see isolated to scattered showers develop through the afternoon, mainly across the higher terrain.

The ridge pushes to the east by Tuesday as a deepening Pacific low makes its way eastward. Cooler air will start to filter down into the region for the midweek period. The pressure gradient between the departing ridge and the deepening low, will bring southwesterly winds around 15-25 mph with gusts to 30-35 mph on Tuesday, increasing to 20-30 mph with gusts to 35-45 mph on Wednesday. The low is expected to move inland to northern California on Tuesday but tracks well to the north of the region through Wednesday. Precipitation chances look pretty meager as the best moisture advection is across the Great Basin into Utah. Some isolated showers may cross far northern Arizona on Wednesday but most areas will remain dry.

Behind the departing low, we should see the flow turn more zonal for the rest of the week with a return to seasonably warm temperatures, breezy afternoon winds, and dry conditions.

AVIATION...Sunday 19/18Z through Monday 20/18Z

VFR conditions, an isolated virga or light shower possible over the highest elevations, dry elsewhere. Winds SE-S 5-15kts, gusts to 20kts daytime, light and variable or terrain driven overnight.

OUTLOOK...Monday 20/18Z through Wednesday 22/18Z...VFR conditions, slight chance of a light shower or thunderstorm over Mogollon Rim and White Mountains 18Z Mon to 00Z Tuesday. Dry rest of the time period. Daytime winds S-SW 5-15kts Monday, light and variable Monday night into Tuesday morning. S-SW 10-20kts, gusts to 30kts Tuesday afternoon, SW 10-15kts Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.

FIRE WEATHER...Today and Monday

Warming temperatures with mostly dry conditions expected. Isolated showers over the higher terrain possible this afternoon, with isolated showers and a few rumbles of thunder possible over the higher terrain on Monday. South to southwest winds at 10 to 20 mph both days.

Tuesday through Thursday...Dry and warm conditions expected on Tuesday, turning cooler for Wednesday and Thursday. South to southwest winds at 10 to 20 mph on Tuesday, increasing to 15 to 30 mph with gusts to 40 mph on Wednesday. Winds shift to the west at 15 to 25 mph on Thursday. Minimum RH values between at 10-25% each afternoon.

FGZ WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

None.